Monthly Archives: June 2015

To Cuff or Not To Cuff

alfredFantasy Football is equal parts examination of numbers and patterns and following your gut. Both can get you in trouble, and both can result in the ultimate reward. When faced with a question of drafting an aging or injury prone running back, the question of handcuffs will inevitably come up. Is it worth it to use a draft pick on a player who may never see the field? Like any question, it’s important to know the players.

There are two very different scenarios at play here. Scenario one is best represented with a player like Arian Foster. At 29 years old, Foster is an old man in football terms who has a ton of mileage on his wheels. When he’s healthy, he’s a consensus top 5 fantasy back who in only 13 games managed 260 touches on the ground and 300 total including the passing game. The real question is what do you do in the 3 games he’s not healthy?

By handcuffing Alfred Blue, you’re ensuring you have a starter for those weeks when he inevitably breaks down and at an ADP of 193 in standard scoring leagues you’re not spending a high impact pick on the player. It’s a solid strategy to have if you’re concerned about Fosters health, but it is hardly the only scenario worth looking at.

My personal preference is to eschew the “handcuff” strategy and put an extra starting RB or two on the bench and watch the waivers to snag another backup who snags starting duties ala Isaiah Cromwell to mitigate injuries. A scenario that isn’t so far-fetched would be to select LeGarrett Blount (ADP of 75) in the 7th or 8th round to cover byes and unforseen injuries and take a late round flier on a player like Maxx Williams (ADP 191) or Eddie Royal (ADP 207). There’s plenty of reason to be excited about both of those players, and the odds that you’ll get season long production increases when you have players who aren’t sitting behind their incumbent starters just waiting for an injury.

If Foster goes down in week 4 would you rather have Alfred Blue ( 528 yards, 3.1 YPC with 2 TDs) or LeGarrett Blount (547 yards, 4.4 YPC with 5 TDs)? Both players had limited exposure last year, but Blount is in a position to carry the ball as the #1 in a high-powered New England offense and I’d argue is the better “backup” when Foster isn’t playing.

Of course, there is no right or wrong way to look at this. If you’re lucky enough to handcuff CJ Anderson to Montee Ball last year, you likely laughed deep into the playoffs and disagree whole heartedly. If you wasted a pick on Christine Michael… well there’s two sides to every coin.

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Updated: TE Rankings (updated 7/2)

Updated 6/29

  1. Rob Gronkowski – NE
  2. Greg Olsen – CAR
  3. Travis Kelce – KC
  4. Jimmy Graham – NO
  5. Martellus Bennett – CHI
  6. Delanie Walker – TEN
  7. Dwayne Allen – IND
  8. Julius Thomas – JAC
  9. Jason Witten – DAL
  10. Jordan Cameron – MIA
  11. Zach Ertz – PHI
  12. Owen Daniels – DEN
  13. Heath Miller – PIT
  14. Antonio Gates – SD
  15. Kyle Rudolph – MIN
  16. Jordan Reed – WAS
  17. Tyler Eifert – CIN
  18. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
  19. Josh Hill – NO
  20. Larry Donnell – NYG
  21. Maxx Williams – BAL
  22. LeDarius Green – SD
  23. Coby Fleener – IND
  24. Vernon Davis – SF
  25. Charles Clay – BUF
  26. Jared Cook – STL
  27. Richard Rogers – GB
  28. Jace Amaro – NYJ
  29. Mychal Rivera – OAK
  30. Eric Ebron – DET
  31. Scott Chandler – NE
  32. Andrew Quarless – GB
  33. Ladarius Green – SD
  34. Jacob Tamme – ATL
  35. Dion Sims – MIA
  36. Virgil Green – DEN

3 Up

Jordan Cameron – MIA – At times in Cleveland, Cameron looked like an elite pass catching TE until injuries and inconsistent QB play derailed his season last year. Arguably an upgrade over Charles Clay, Cameron could find himself pushing the top 5 in TE fantasy points by the end of the season.

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins – TB – For those who drafted him a little early last year assuming his freak athletesism would overcome the dismal offense in Tampa Bay, there is probably a little skeptisism left after a disappointing year. Add a QB that can make the throws, and Jenkins looks poised to have the breakout year many expected of him last year.

Andrew Quarless – GB – Despite being often ranked behind teammate Richard Rogers, all the buzz out of mini camps is that the offense will likely end up using Quarless as their number 1 TE, and he has the hands and skills to be a middle of the pack fantasy TE in the high powered GB offense. He says all the right things and Aaron Rodgers has beemed, expect him to leap over Richard Rogers before the season starts, but will likely be an afterthought in your drafts.

3 Down

Josh Hill – NO – I feel bad piling on a TE that hasn’t even had a chance to take the field as his teams starting TE, but the buzz is almost all bad going into fantasy drafts, and the chances he’ll produce at levels close to Jimmy Graham are zero. Don’t over bid on player who is likely going to let down fantasy owners and make way for Ben Watson on the field.

Eric Ebron – DET – A player many lauded as the replacement for the much maligned Brandon Pettigrew, Ebron did nothing to prove his supports right last year, and hasn’t done much this year to change my expectations. Detroit will likely continue to force the football to Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate and balance it out of the backfield with super rookie Ameer Abdullah. Use caution when drafting Ebron.

Jordan Reed – WSH – Reed has the physical tools to be a top 10 TE, but his health isn’t there, and the roster features another capable TE in Niles Paul. Expect both TE’s to line up on the field together and neither will create much of a cushion between the other in terms of fantasy production. In case of injuries, one or the other could be a late, and I mean LATE round sleeper.

Players Rising, Players Falling

jacksonville-jaguars-allen-robinsonAs we finish up team minicamps, we’re left to sift through copious homerisms about players beat writers love, and buzz killer articles for players they love to hate. How much of this information is useful? That is open to interpretation, but it it makes sense to keep an ear open for pre-season movers; otherwise how can we know who’s positioned themselves to be the next Arian Foster?

Risers

C.J. Anderson

Speaking of Arian Foster, his old coach Gary Kubiak has made comments leading Denver Post’s Troy Renck to declare that the battle for RB touches in the Bronco’s backfield is all but over. Kubiak sounds like he’ll go with one feature back regardless of who is on the depth chart, preferening to avoid a committee. This is music to C.J. Anderson fan’s ears. I’ve been highly critical of the 3rd year back, choosing to take the under without knowing what he’s capable of over a full 16 games, but if he sticks and stays healthy, Anderson could finish at the top of the league in RB points.

LeSean McCoy

This has less to do with anything McCoy has done in training camps or OTA’s and more to do with how awful the Bills QB situation has become. Matt Cassel has “look like the worst QB at Bill minicamps” according to sources, and this opens the door for perenial disappointment E.J. Manuel to win back the reigns. In the end, this offense will funnel entirely through McCoy, Rex Ryan tends to field a smash mouth running team anyhow. I expect that even if McCoy doesn’t put up the gaudy 5 YPC type numbers he’s capable of, 300+ touches is a given.

Allen Robinson

I doubt that going into the offseason anyone would have pegging Robinson as an early riser. The Jacksonville offense was anemic to say the least, but with Marqise Lee proving he’s not a legitamite #1 and with Justin Blackmon suspended (again), Robinson has seemingly run away with the starting gig, and his performance so far has people applauding the young receiver. If he wins the favor of strong armed QB Blake Bortles, Robinson should see a ton of targets and will likely still be a value pick come draft day.

David Cobb

While Tennessee struggles to nail down a deal with 2nd overall pick Marcus Mariota, Cobb has quietly positioned himself to steal the lions share of carries from incumbent starter Bishop Sankey. Despite that this team invested heavily in the passing game with Mariota and Green-Beckham, this will remain a run first team and Cobb should be the guy that eats up the yards. As far as rookies go, he’ll fly well under the radar, and I expect him to be worth far more than several of his contemporaries.

Falling

Peyton Manning

The news being leaked about the Bronco’s shopping Manning prior to his pay cut can’t be helpful when evaluating how much Manning has left in the tank. While the team attempts to become more balanced, and try and replace the quality receiver in Julius Thomas that it lost, expectations for Manning continue to fall. At his current ADP (34.4) he’s a huge risk, and the reward is likely to be in the QB2 range.

Josh Hill

The man being asked to fill Jimmy Graham’s shoes after his departure has shown very little so far in mini camps. It’s led to speculation that veteran TE Ben Watson may actually find himself on the field a great deal more. As this team prepares to hand a larger role over to RB’s Mark Ingram and CJ Spiller, expect Hill to be a huge bust.

Mark Ingram

Another NO “starter” finds himself on my falling list. The reports out of New Orleans is that CJ Spiller has looked electric, and will find himself on the feild in most passing situations, severly limiting Ingram’s value if the Saints D looks as bad or nearly as last year. Couple that with the fact that Ingram has shown very little prior to last year in the way of staying healthy, he could be a huge mistake on draft day if injuries of Spiller keep him from repeating a solid season.

Fred Jackson 

Steady Freddy may find himself without an NFL team come the end of minicamps, and he’s echo’d as much himself. Although I find it hard to believe that he’ll be cut after his history with Buffalo, it’s clear the writing is on the wall. While he’s managed to stay fantasy relevant, this could be the year he falls off the radar completely. With McCoy in the fold and capable of 300 touches across all three downs, Jackson is a handcuff only pick.

Dez Holds Out: Impact on Terrance Williams

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Terrance Williams (83) steps past Detroit Lions cornerback Darius Slay (30) on his way to a touchdown after a pass reception in the fourth quarter during the Dallas Cowboys vs. the Detroit Lions NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, October 27, 2013.  (Louis DeLuca/Dallas Morning News)

 (Louis DeLuca/Dallas Morning News)

As Dez Bryant continues to hold out in an attempt to force Jerry Jones’ hand on contract talks, Terrance Williams has assumed the role of the #1 WR in the offense in minicamps. Although Bryant is unlikely to hold out for actual NFL games, williams has acquitted himself quite well, and will likely see an improvement on the numbers from last year.

Williams possesses the ability to be a difference maker down field, as was evidenced by his 7 TD’s on 37 total catches. If this time with the number ones improves his on the field relationship with Tony Romo, expect a much better finish than previously expected out of him.

Updated: WR Rankings

Updated 6/23

  1. Antonio Brown – PIT
  2. Demaryius Thomas – DEN
  3. Dez Bryant – DAL
  4. Odel Beckham Jr. – NYG
  5. Julio Jones – ATL
  6. Calvin Johnson – DET
  7. Jordy Nelson – GB
  8. AJ Green – CIN
  9. Randall Cobb – GB
  10. TY Hilton – IND
  11. Mike Evans – TB
  12. DeAndre Hopkins – HOU
  13. Emmanuel Sanders – DEN
  14. Alshon Jeffery – CHI
  15. Kelvin Benjamin – CAR
  16. Jordan Matthews – PHI
  17. Julian Edelman – NE
  18. Keenan Allen – SD
  19. Brandin Cooks – NO
  20. Sammy Watkins – BUF
  21. Amari Cooper – OAK
  22. DeSean Jackson – WAS
  23. Golden Tate – DET
  24. Brandon Marshall – NYJ
  25. Roddy White – ATL
  26. Martavis Bryant – PIT
  27. Allen Robinson – JAC
  28. Kevin White – CHI
  29. Andre Johnson – IND
  30. Mike Wallace – MIN
  31. Torrey Smith – SF
  32. Brandon LaFell – NE
  33. Eric Decker – NYJ
  34. Vincent Jackson – TB
  35. Jeremy Maclin – KC
  36. Michael Floyd – ARI
  37. Jarvis Landry – MIA
  38. Anquan Boldin – SF
  39. John Brown – ARI
  40. Nelson Agholor – Phi
  41. Marques Colston – NO
  42. Victor Cruz – NYG
  43. Charles Johnson – MIN
  44. Larry Fitzgerald – ARI
  45. Steve Smith – BAL
  46. Breshard Perriman – BAL
  47. Kendall Wright – TEN
  48. Kenny Stills – MIA
  49. Pierre Garcon – WAS
  50. Davante Adams – GB
  51. Terrance Williams – DAL
  52. Rueben Randle – NYG
  53. Brian Quick – STL
  54. Malcom Floyd – SD
  55. Marvin Jones – CIN
  56. Doug Baldwin – SEA
  57. Dwayne Bowe – CLE
  58. DeVante Parker – MIA
  59. Percy Harvin – BUF
  60. Cody Latimer – DEN
  61. Marqise Lee – JAC
  62. Dorial Green-Beckham – TEN
  63. Stevie Johnson – SF
  64. Kenny Britt – STL
  65. Justin Hunter – TEN
  66. Cole Beasley – Dal
  67. Cecil Shorts – HOU
  68. Devin Funchess – CAR
  69. Michael Crabtree – OAK
  70. Phillip Dorsett – IND
  71. Jaelen Strong – HOU
  72. Donte Moncrief – IND
  73. Andrew Hawkins – CLE
  74. Cordarelle Patterson – MIN
  75. Greg Jennings – MIA
  76. Nick Toon – NO
  77. Devin Smith – NYJ
  78. Tyler Lockett – SEA
  79. Sammie Coates – PIT
  80. Stedman Bailey – STL

3 Up

Dwayne Bowe – CLE – Let’s be clear, I’m not suggesting Bowe is going to be a world beater or find himself in the top 20 WRs, but based on his tumbling value, I’d argue he’s poised to far out perform his expectation. 75 receptions, 900 yards and 4 TD’s would be a solid 3rd WR line, and in PPR leagues if his value jumps a bit being the best target on nearly ever down for the Browns.

Cole Beasley – DAL – The NFL slot reciever has found itself at the heart of the PPR world as small recieivers can have value in high volume offenses. Although Beasley may have been outperformed by fellow WR Terrance Williams last year, I see a spike in targets with DeMarco Murray out of the picture. Ranked as the 78th best WR by ESPN, I expect him to out perform a slew of receivers taken ahead of him.

Roddy White – ATL – With Julio Jones in the offense it’s easy to forget that White finished 18th in receptions in 14 games and should likely show less signs of slowing down than other recievers his age. While others value him lower and lower, I feel that White’s consistency and familiarity with QB Matt Ryan should keep him around 70-80 receptions and a healthy 6-8 TDs. Plenty good for a top 25 finish among WRs.

3 Down

Cody Latimer – DEN  – If you believe that the Bronco’s are planning on bringing a more balanced attack to the Mile High city with the increased use of the run game, then you should be nervous about drafting Cody Latimer. Despite his skill set, he’s still at best the fourth option on offense behind Thomas, Sanders, and Anderson. He only had 29 catches last year meaning we’re opperating on assumptions and despite my expectations for him to receive more work, he won’t get nearly enough to justify picking him at the 45-50 range for WR’s.

Donte Moncrief – IND – A fine reciever, Moncrief was already buried deep on the Colt’s depth chart, and they’re willingness to get Dorsett in the 2015 draft shows that they either don’t have faith in him or that they plan on spreading the ball around even more. I’d expect Moncrief to be drafted well ahead of his actual value, and caution that he may be the 4th reciever as early as week one for this offense.

Dorial Green-Beckham – TEN – Already dealing with a minor injury, Green-Beckham has generated a ton of buzz due to his extreme athletic abillity and comparissons to another mercurial WR in Randy Moss. Pump the breaks if you will considering he’s a rookie coming into a disfunctional offense with a rookie QB at the helm. In keeper or dynasty leagues he’s worth a stash but reaching early banking on his upside will burn your team for weeks while we wait for him to blossom.

Matt Cassel on the bubble?

Dec 29, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Matt Cassel (16) passes against the Detroit Lions in the second quarter at Mall of America Field at H.H.H. Metrodome. The Vikings win 14-13. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

USA TODAY Sports

Ranked 32nd overall in my most recent QB rankings, Matt Cassel was poised to spend the season in waiver hell, probably never seeing a starting spot in your league. Now, reports out of Bills mini camps paint Cassel into a corner as he’s been dismal, consistently being outplayed by suplanted starter E.J Manuel.

I’d still caution you against expecting a Bills QB to contribute to a championship roster this year. Manuel does have a bit more upside thanks to his atheltic ability, something that Cassel doesn’t possess at this point in his career, but a history of poor decision making and poor accuracy and efficiency mean Manuel is nothing more than a waiver pick up in case he explodes.

Despite all of this, I expect Cassel to start week 1, and I’d hope you’re smart enough to not draft either of these players in any format.

Updated: RB Rankings

Updated 6/17

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. Adrian Peterson
  3. Marshawn Lynch
  4. Eddie Lacy
  5. Jamaal Charles
  6. Matt Forte
  7. Arian Foster
  8. C.J. Anderson
  9. DeMarco Murray
  10. LeSean McCoy
  11. Lamar Miller
  12. Jeremy Hill
  13. Alfred Morris
  14. Justin Forsett
  15. Carlos Hyde
  16. Latavius Murray
  17. Mark Ingram
  18. Melvin Gordon
  19. Jonathan Stewart
  20. Frank Gore
  21. Joique Bell
  22. T.J. Yeldon
  23. Andre Ellington
  24. Giovanni Bernard
  25. Joseph Randle
  26. Rashad Jennings
  27. Darren McFadden
  28. Isaiah Crowell
  29. LeGarrett Blount
  30. Tre Mason
  31. Todd Gurley
  32. Tevin Coleman
  33. Devonta Freeman
  34. Chris Ivory
  35. Doug Martin
  36. Ameer Abdullah
  37. Bishop Sankey
  38. Ryan Mathews
  39. C.J. Spiller
  40. Shane Vereen
  41. Fred Jackson
  42. Montee Ball
  43. Knile Davis
  44. Andre Williams
  45. Matt Jones
  46. Terrance West
  47. DeAngelo Williams
  48. David Cobb
  49. Stevan Ridley
  50. Lorenzo Taliaferro
  51. Fozzy Whitaker
  52. David Johnson
  53. Roy Helu
  54. Dan Herron
  55. Charles Sims
  56. Reggie Bush
  57. Danny Woodhead
  58. Jonas Gray
  59. Toby Gerhart
  60. Jay Ajayi
  61. Darren Sproles
  62. Trent Richardson
  63. Khiry Robinson
  64. Matt Asiata
  65. Alfred Blue

3 Up

Justin Forsett – New OC Marc Tressman has worked his magic in previous stops turning RB’s into intergral parts of the offense (think Matt Forte in Chicago). The advantage is that Baltimore intends to retain a semblance of balance so a healthy Forsett could see a spike in overall touches as he sees the ball in the passing game.

Frank Gore – Every year it seems that Gore drops down our draft boards only to reward loyal owners with consistency and fantasy production. Leaving the disfunctional fold in San Fransisco for greener pastures in Indy should help him remain near the top of the middle teir of RB’s. Although he won’t be featured heavily in the passing game, Gore is a safe bet to out perform his draft position.

Tre Mason – Todd Gurley is the heir apparent in St. Louis, that much is clear. But it will be at least until late in the season for him to supplant Mason as the starter in the offense, yet when looking at respective rankings, Mason’s value seems to far out pace his teammate. I expect a solid 4-6 weeks of unchallenged leadership, and if he plays great, the Rams will be in no rush to put Gurley back in harms way.

3 Down

Andre Ellington – A return to the passing game with a healthy Carson Palmer, and the addition of David Johnson in the draft means that Ellington’s value takes a massive hit in non PPR leagues. He’ll still get the lions share of passing attempts to RB’s in the offense, but John Brown figures to make more of an impact in the passing game, limiting Ellingtons contributions there as well.

Rashad Jennings – Averaging less than 4 yards a carry and having pay dirt stolen away by rookie Andre Williams spells a downturn in production to the aging Jennings. Expect Williams to push for more touches, and eventually supplant Jennings as the starter.

Joique Bell – A knee injury has opened the door in OTA’s and mini camps for Ameer Abdullah to run with the first team offense, and all accounts show that he’s impressed Detroit’s coaching staff with his play. Even if Bell returns as the starter in Detroit, his days as the bell horse in this offense are nearing an end as Abdullah is the future for the Lions.

Updated: QB Rankings (7/7/15)

Updated 6/16

  1. Andrew Luck
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Russell Wilson
  4. Ben Roethlisburger
  5. Peyton Manning
  6. Drew Brees
  7. Matt Ryan
  8. Tony Romo
  9. Eli Manning
  10. Tom Brady
  11. Ryan Tannehill
  12. Matthew Stafford
  13. Cam Newton
  14. Phillip Rivers
  15. Colin Kaepernick
  16. Joe Flacco
  17. Carson Palmer
  18. Derek Carr
  19. Jay Cutler
  20. Alex Smith
  21. Teddy Bridgewater
  22. Andy Dalton
  23. Blake Bortles
  24. Sam Bradford
  25. Marcus Mariota
  26. Jameis Winston
  27. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  28. Brian Hoyer
  29. Geno Smith
  30. Josh McCown
  31. Robert Griffin
  32. Matt Cassel
  33. Nick Foles

3 Up

Colin Kaepernick – Reports of the discontent in San Fransisco are overshadowing the progress that Kaep has made in the pocket as a passer. Despite a tumbling ADP, Kaepernick continues to rise on my board, especially considering his ability to make plays with his legs. It may not always be pretty but he’ll finish as a top 15 QB you can get at a discount.

Derek Carr – The hype train was slightly derailed recently when fears surround the injury sustained to his finger had many wondering if he’d be ready for week 1 of the season. Back at practice and getting to work with his new #1 in Amari Cooper, Carr’s injury won’t be an impact, and he has the tools and weapons to find himself in the top 15 QB’s.

Marcus Mariota –  He may end up over valued by inexperienced drafters due to the buzz surrounding Mariota, but he’s already impressed coaches and team mates with his ability and work ethic. He’s jumping up on my board, and I’m beginning to feel he’s what Cam Newton was expected to be in the NFL,

3 Down

Tom Brady – In spite of his performances after similar issues (see his 2007 stats after spy gate for an example) Brady’s attention may be too focused on his legacy as he fights the 4 game suspension from the deflated football… thing. I’m not insinuating he’ll be terrible, but he could begin to fall down draft boards with fears that he won’t be elite for all 12 of the games he’s availbale for.

Jay Cutler – They added Kevin White, he still has Alshon Jeffrey and Matt Forte, and you’re wondering why I think he’s a down? Jeffrey is a great athlete, but he’s a throw and go type WR who’s strength is pull down a jump ball. White may have more upside in the long run, but this team will hurt for a route runner early and Cutler struggles when he throws into coverage. I expect an rough season for Cutler without Marshall on the roster.

Andy Dalton – This offense isn’t any better than the previous year when Dalton was expected to jump into the conversation for top teir QB’s. Instead, he constantly disappointed, and this team didn’t do enough in the off season to mask his deficiencies. They will likely lean heavily on the run with two solid backs, so Dalton is unlikely to show much more than last year.

Bust Candidates

Here’s a list of a few of my prime Bust Candidates. Although there are plenty of candidates still out there, these stand out to me as potential disasters. anderson

C.J. Anderson | Den | RB – While it is still to early to predict an ADP with any real accuracy, C.J. Anderson has been a popular pick in the first two rounds. A second year player who’s performance was relegated to less than half an NFL season is a precarious first or second round pick, especially when a back the team invested heavily on is returning from injury (Montee Ball). Although I’d be surprised if Anderson doesn’t break camp as the starting RB, he’ll be hard pressed to repeat the same kind of dominance over a full 16 games.

Mark Ingram | NO | RB – It was nice to see Ingram finally produce near the level we’d expected when NO drafted him a few years ago. A common flier pick, Ingram returned the investment in spades, but will be hard pressed to repeat those numbers given his NFL track record and injury history. Ingram is being selected in the top 20 for RB’s and my prediction is he’ll fall well short of that expectation.

Alshon Jeffery | Chi | WR – An elite talent, Jefferey has rare go and get it skills and the size to dominate most NFL corners. Sadly, his partner in crime Brandon Marshall is now a Jet and Jeffery will likely be the one drawing double teams. I’m not sure that Jeffery is a complete enough player to carry that burden and with a rookie WR on the other side, I expect him to have a down year as defenses key on him more than ever.

Jeremy Maclin | KC | WR – What else can I say other than Maclin is wearing a Chief’s jersey… a nightmare scenario for a great WR, Maclin will certainly not repeat the great numbers he put up coming off of an injury two years ago. Although he’ll likely perform better than Dwayne Bowe did as the WR1 in this offense, I’m wary of the drop of in production having no QB or help will cause.

Michael Floyd | Ari | WR – Judging from how far Larry Fitzgerald has tumbled in rankings, it’s clear that many thing Floyd is going to take the next step. Floyd is a fine WR an great athlete, but John Brown is the WR in Arizona who should slot in for Fitzgerald. Inconsistency will continue to plague Floyd, and he will fail to live up to his ADP.

Rob Gronkowski | NE | TE – Despite the fact that he’s the number one target in a high powered NE offense, Gronkowski has two strikes against him going into 2015. He’s a safe bet to miss time due to injury as previous seasons have shown, and he’ll be missing his QB for a few games to start the season. Brady and Gronk took some time to get going this past year, meaning if we get some kind of repeat, we’re looking at week 6 or 7 for full Gronk power. As the top TE taken likely in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, there won’t be enough of a return early.

Field Generals: Impact on Recievers

IEmmanuel Sanders recently read an article about Emmanuel Sanders and the concerns about his production with Gary Kubiak at the helm. While these questions often arrise in the off season, the biggest factor for Sander’s production has less to do with Kubiak and more to do with Peyton Manning.

They often refer to players of his ilk as “Field Generals”. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers… they call their own number more often than not, meaning it doesn’t matter if it’s Gary Kubiak, or Jack Del Rio, or John Madden coaching the team.

I’d like to argue going into your draft to expect recievers for the top 5 or so QB’s to generally repeat their numbers unless huge shakeups occur on offense.  Feel confident that Emmanuel Sanders is going to see enough targets for 1100 yards and 5 TD’s, and that Brandon LaFell will continue to grow as a Patriot and find Brady looking his way just as often as last year. Don’t read too heavily into who is the head coach, because they aren’t the ones throwing the ball to them