Can Doug Martin Bounce Back?
Two years ago, the “Muscle Hamster” as Doug Martin is affectionately refered to due to his hulking physique took the NFL by storm. His final stat line of 1454 rushing yards, 11 TDs and a 4.7 YPC made Martin the ultimate in fantasy value as a 4th – 5th round selection in most leagues. Fantasy owners were giddy going into the 2013 draft, spending a high first round pick to own the 24 year old stud they expected to win them fantasy championships.
Instead he rewarded that confidence with a statline of 456 yards and a 3.6 YPC before an injury in week 6 ended his season. If you were one of the few who though Martin may bounce back in 2014, his 494 yards and 3.7 YPC proved otherwise.
The major question going into the 2015 fantasy season is “can Doug Martin bounce back?” With 2nd year pro Charles Sims having a poor showing in limited time last year, the backfield situation in Tampa Bay looks murky for owners bold enough to draft either. If you draft from the Bucs backfield you’re either betting that Martin’s past two seasons were an aberration born of injuries and awful QB play, or you’re betting that Sim’s 2.8 YPC was a result of an ankle injury that slowed him down over the final 6 weeks.
With current ADP of 126 for Martin and 145 for Sims, both players are low risk options. A quick examination of week to week performances for both runners are revealing. Between 2013 and 2014 Martin’s total numbers were poor, but much of that can be attributed to injuries in 2013 and poor QB play in 2014. He turned in some duds but in weeks he averaged over 4 YPC he had such low volume he was unable to contribute to fantasy teams. Sims on the other hand looks even worse on paper. in 3 of his 8 games he averaged 1.2 yards or less, and only had one week over 4 yards and only one TD. Sure, he was involved heavily in the passing game, but Koetters’ offenses haven’t been shy with their RB’s, with both Jones Drew and either Fred Taylor or Rashad Jennings being involved at the same time.
Comparing the two players leads to the most important question, does Charles Sims’ ceiling match Martin’s? in the 12th – 15th round you’re risk is mitigated, but Martin is the player with the highest ceiling. We’ve seen it already in 2012 and with a competent offense and head coach, Martin in the 12th round is a no brainer.