The New Orleans Backfield Puzzle
One of the more shocking developments to come along over the off season was future hall of fame RB Adrian Peterson signing for two years in New Orleans. While the writing was certainly on the wall in Minnesota, Peterson’s arrival on the Saints roster creates a bit of a logjam with Mark Ingram, Tavaris Cadet and Rookie RB Alvin Kamara all vying for playing time.
At his current ADP of 70 (information provided via ESPN data) it’s clear that Peterson is being viewed with a great deal of caution after years in the spotlight come draft day. It’s certainly important to remember that before Peterson’s season ended last year he had rewarded first round attention with 72 yards and 1.9 YPC mark. While he’s certain to improve his efficiency (his career YPC is 4.9) the question remains how many touches can he reasonably expect?
The Saints ran 404 rushing plays last year, with 205 of them going to Ingram who remains entrenched as the Saints starter. I’d expect that number to remain about the same (as well as a YPC around 5) so at his 5th round price (around pick 45) he’s a veteran presence who if healthy (and looking at his career that is a big if) should provide a decent return. In PPR leagues he commands a better draft position as his 45-50 receptions should put him in line as a borderline RB1.
In the very late rounds, rookie RB Alvin Kamara is worth a look as his skill set could reward owners if Ingram or Peterson miss a good chunk of games. The Saints are keen on keeping the workload reasonable on their aging backs and Kamara can slot in on both rushing and passing downs. If both backs ahead of him stay healthy his ceiling is relatively low (40-60 rushes for 200-270 yards and 150 yards through the air) so he’s likely a waiver watch candidate rather than a flier, but in keeper and dynasty leagues could be worth a look late.
Mark Ingram: He’ll continue to dominate the backfield as he’s finally comfortable with the offense and could see a greater number of passes with the departure of Brandin Cooks. 1,100 rushing yards with 6 TDs on the ground and 55 receptions for 390 yards and 2 TDs through the air.
Adrian Peterson: He may have some value if he can score a few red zone looks early, but he’s unlikely to steal enough carries to be worth drafting in the first 6-8 rounds. 450 rushing yards with 4 TDs on the ground and not much through the air.
Alvin Kamara: An NFL ready prospect by all accounts, Kamara will need an injury or two ahead of him to make an impact. Seeing the two names above him, I see that as a likely event. 300 rushing yards and 1 TD on the ground and 30 receptions for 200 yards and 1 TD through the air