Author Archives: Dr. Fantasy

Week 2: Sit / Start

Week one is finally in the rear view mirror, and hopefully you’ve made your mid-week waiver / free agent pick ups. Here’s some advice, albeit amateur, for week two flex and deep league sit and start candidates.

Start

Jared Goff, Khalil MackJared Goff, QB – LAR: Sure, I could be dead wrong about Goff, but I think last week was an idea of Goff’s ceiling and Washington presents his second straight favorable match up as they allowed 18.9 points to Carson Wentz and the Eagles. While he’s not likely to put up monster numbers, I think he could be a sneaky play for quarterback needy teams.

Joe Flacco, QB – BAL: It was an uninspired performance from Flacco last week as he made his first appearance in 2017 against the Bengals. This week he draws the porous secondary of the Browns and can be expected to put up 12-17 points even as he’s working back into game shape.

Ty Montgomery, RB – GB: While I’ve been a detractor of Ty Montgomery the starting NFL running back, the truth is that Atlanta was particularly bad against Chicago last week when it came to stopping the backs in the passing game. Expecting this game to be a shootout, Montgomery should do some damage through the air this week.

Mike Gillislee, RB – NE: Of course this play may not be as attractive if you’re in a PPR league and have a deeper bench, but it’s clear that Gillislee is going to touch the football inside the 20, and the NE offense has to prove they can score through the air before I downgrade him in terms of points per touch. I doubt he’ll see 3 TD’s again this week, but 60 yards and a TD is a realistic expectations against a bad Saints defense.

LeGarrett Blount, RB – PHI: Blount wasn’t super effective in terms of YPC last week but he was the defacto red-zone back scoring a TD to salvage a mediocre day. Kansas City did some damage in New England last week, but they conceded 3 short yardage TD’s against a similar back. Expect pay dirt for Blount this week.

Ted Ginn Jr, WR – NO: While Willy Snead is sidelined for his suspension, Ginn will remain the 2nd option in the offense behind Michael Thomas, and this weeks matchup against the New England Patriots offers a particular big game potential. Ginn has the kind of speed that NE defensive backs had trouble with last week; expect Sean Peyton to exploit it once or twice for big gains.

Cole Beasley, WR – DAL: Yes, Dallas plays against Denver this week, but as a slot receiver, Beasley could be in for a lot of work as Dallas will likely find itself in need of short gains to keep the chains moving.

Chris Hogan, WR – NE: It’s a risk, for sure, to play any New England pass catcher after the dud at home last week, but New Orleans passing defense isn’t exactly great, and Hogan should get more work with Danny Amendola likely sidelined due to his concussion. If this game goes the way I expect (a shootout) then Hogan presents an opportunity for points off the bench.

Rob Gronkowski, TE – NE: Normally, I wouldn’t have to suggest to start the big man, but after a disappointing first week, there may be some on the fence about starting him over potential bench options. Don’t. Similar to the Hogan blurb above, New England is going to throw the ball, and Gronk could see 15+ targets in a game like Sunday’s.

Jesse James, TE – PIT: Week 1’s top TE, James hasn’t got the track record of the other top 10 TE’s but what he does have is red zone targets. Minnesota’s defense is above average, but if the Steelers find their way into the red zone, James is going to be the top target for Big Ben.

Sit

Trevor Siemian, QB – DEN: 49ers Broncos FootballSiemian had a nice week last week, against a defense many pegged as a top 10. This week he’ll come up against a Dallas defense that absolutely trashed Eli Manning and the Giants. Unless you have no other options, Siemian is likely to come back down to earth this week.

Deshone Kizer, QB – CLE: Much like Siemian, Kizer managed to put together a much better week one showing than many expected. Don’t get too excited tho, as Cleveland draws Baltimore in week 2, who made a better quarterback look awful (Andy Dalton). Baltimore’s defense is the real deal and Kizer is still a rookie.

Terrance West, RB – BAL: I drafted West myself as a late round starter, and much like the other backs in the area (Paul Perkins, Rob Kelley, etc) I’m only starting West when it makes sense. After Cleveland held Le’Veon Bell and company to less than 60 total rushing yards, I’m looking elsewhere for my flex.

Isaiah Crowell, RB – CLE: I’m a fan of The Crow, but this week he draws a short stick as they run into what looks like a buzzsaw in the Ravens defense. Only the passing backs produced last week and Crowell is a north south runner that will likely find running room hard to come by.

C.J. Anderson, RB – DEN: This week’s production relies heavily on how Siemian is able to move the ball through the air. Dallas’ defense was relentless against the run in week one, and while Anderson is a much more talented back than Paul Perkins, it will likely be a less than stellar game for the back.

Terrelle Pryor, WR – WAS: The offensive woes that plagued Washington in the preseason are still present after a tough week 1 which saw an unfamiliar unit continue to struggle. While Pryor certainly had his moments, the Rams secondary should keep Cousins from gelling just yet with his new toy. Expect another frustrating week.

Sammy Watkins, WR – LAR: I was convinced that the trade would be good for Watkins as he’d no longer be the only passing game weapon in a more balanced offense, but it’s clear that Cooper Kupp has earned the trust of Goff and the coaching staff.

Eric Decker, WR – TEN: Maybe it was a lingering injury, maybe it was his lack of rapport with Marcus Mariota, maybe we’ll never know. What we do know is that Jacksonville was not kind to wide receivers last week and Mariota was targeting Davis and Matthews a whole lot more than Decker. Not the match-up to gamble on his red zone presence.

Jason Witten, TE – DAL: While his performance in week 1 was a nice surprise, Witten is going to get the Denver treatment in week 2. If Gates and Hunter (who wasn’t targeted once) couldn’t do better than 2 for 18 yards, then Witten may be worth staying away from.

Travis Kelce, TE – KC: In much the same way that Gronkowski and Reed get far more hype than a TE is worth, Kelce was a no-show against a New England defense that could stop a runny nose. This week he faces a Philly defense that only allowed 5 catches for less than 40 yards to top 3 TE Jordan Reed.

(I won’t dignify kickers and D/ST – if you are streaming them, chose the best matchup [SF, CLE, NYJ, CHI] and if you drafted high, then play your guys).

 

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Week 1 Thoughts

While week 1 featured several stellar performances by high-profile rookies, it also featured some dream killer injuries along the way. I’ll be brief, but below are the highlights of the Fantasy Seasons kickoff week.

Rookie Running Backs Shine

huntThe incoming group got off to a blazing start in the NFL opener in New England as Kareem Hunt stepped into the void following Spencer Ware’s injury and dropped almost 250 total yards and three touchdowns. His 41 points in standard leagues paced the NFL.

Also turning in solid performances were Leonard Fournette (124 yards, TD) and Dalvin Cook (137 total yards), Deshone Kizer (239 total yards, 1 Passing and 1 Rushing TD) , Tarik Cohen (110,1 TD), Kenny Golloday (69 yards, 2 TD), Cooper Kupp (76 yards, 1 TD) and Corey Coleman (53 yards, 1 TD).

Major Injury Woes

The injury to David Johnson (dislocated wrist) was a huge blow to fantasy teams as Johnson was, for all intents and purposes, the #1 pick in fantasy this year. At this point he’s expected to miss 8-12 weeks which would put his return right at the fantasy playoffs with no promises on what he may be able to produce.

Also injured: Allen Robinson (ACL injury, placed on IR), Danny Woodhead (Hamstring Injury, no timetable), Kevin White (Shoulder Injury, placed on IR).

Struggling to Get Going

While there were many players who surprised in week one, the more important story line are the players who failed to meet expectations.

Tom Brady: Brady’s value skyrocketed in the preseason thanks to a strong supporting cast, but an 8 point week 1 in a blowout loss against KC was not what owners were hoping for.

Russell Wilson: This was supposed to be a bounce back year for Russell but less than 200 yards against a GB defense that wasn’t the stingiest last year was awful for the former top 5 QB.

Le’Veon Bell: While David Johnson had an uninspiring week one prior to his injury, Bell had a disastrous one. 47 total yards and a 3.2 YPC line isn’t good enough for a player many believed was the best player in fantasy.

Joe Mixon: Maybe it’s not fair to read into his first NFL action, but Mixon’s opening stat line was borderline embarrassing as he managed only 9 yards on 8 carries. After a strong preseason saw Mixon jump up rankings, this should temper the expectations surrounding him for a bit.

Adrian Peterson: While I wasn’t very high on him coming into the season simply because of the crowd already in the NO backfield, I didn’t expect him to struggle in the run game to the tune of 6 carries for 18 yards. While Mark Ingram wasn’t impressive either, it appears that Peterson will play third fiddle to Ingram and rookie back Alvin Kamara going forward.

Brandon Marshall: With OBJ missing Sunday nights game, many expected Marshall to be heavily targeted, but he turned in a dud with only one reception on the final drive of the game.

Jamison Crowder: A popular preseason pick to elevate his game, Crowder’s struggles in week one may have been because Cousins couldn’t seem to hit open receivers. Still, it’s not encouraging going forward.

Martavis Bryant: It shouldn’t come as a surprise considering that Bryant hadn’t played much football in the past two years, but his 2 catches for 14 yards certainly contributed to fantasy losses in week 1.

 

Mia v. TB Postponed; Zeke’s 6 Games Upheld

Miami vs. Tampa Bay Postponed

On the eve of the NFL season, two major news stories dropped. First, the NFL announced that due to the likely event of a south Florida landfall of Hurricane Irma, the week 1 game between the Miami Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been rescheduled for their mutual bye week (week 11).

While the impact is severe for teams featuring high picks on Miami’s RB Jay Ajayi or Tampa’s Mike Evans, the truth of a week one postponement is that your roster should feature plenty of stop gaps.

Ezekiel Elliott Suspension Upheld

What felt like a decision that would surely be overturned or at least downgraded several games suddenly turned into a real problem for gamblers who selected Zeke early in drafts hoping that he’d win his appeal and play a larger number of Cowboys games. Now, Zeke will miss the 6 games of the original suspension, albeit starting in week 2. If you paid a premium for Elliott, you’d better hope to stay afloat as his talent is undeniable as soon as he comes back.

From here, Darren McFadden is a solid 6 week starter, but keep an eye on Alfred Morris. Morris was the more effective runner in the preseason from what little I saw, so I could see a shift to a committee approach should McFadden struggle.

 

Top 350 Rankings

Rank Name P. Rank Bye
1 David Johnson ARI RB1 8
2 Le’Veon Bell PIT RB2 9
3 Antonio Brown PIT WR1 9
4 Julio Jones ATL WR2 5
5 LeSean McCoy BUF RB3 6
6 Mike Evans TB WR3 11
7 A.J. Green CIN WR4 6
8 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG WR5 8
9 Devonta Freeman ATL RB4 5
10 Melvin Gordon LAC RB5 9
11 Jordy Nelson GB WR6 8
12 DeMarco Murray TEN RB6 8
13 Jordan Howard CHI RB7 9
14 Michael Thomas NO WR7 5
15 Jay Ajayi MIA RB8 11
16 Dez Bryant DAL WR8 6
17 Doug Baldwin SEA WR9 6
18 Amari Cooper OAK WR10 10
19 T.Y. Hilton IND WR11 11
20 Todd Gurley LAR RB9 8
21 Rob Gronkowski NE TE1 9
22 DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR12 7
23 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB10 6
24 Leonard Fournette JAC RB11 8
25 Demaryius Thomas DEN WR13 5
26 Brandin Cooks NE WR14 9
27 Isaiah Crowell CLE RB12 9
28 Keenan Allen LAC WR15 9
29 Lamar Miller HOU RB13 7
30 Travis Kelce KC TE2 10
31 Terrelle Pryor WAS WR16 5
32 Allen Robinson JAC WR17 8
33 Alshon Jeffery PHI WR18 10
34 Golden Tate DET WR19 7
35 Aaron Rodgers GB QB1 8
36 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR20 8
37 Davante Adams GB WR21 8
38 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB14 11
39 Michael Crabtree OAK WR22 10
40 Tom Brady NE QB2 9
41 Dalvin Cook MIN RB15 9
42 Kareem Hunt KC RB16 10
43 Marshawn Lynch OAK RB17 10
44 Carlos Hyde SF RB18 11
45 Joe Mixon CIN RB19 6
46 Jarvis Landry MIA WR24 11
47 Ty Montgomery GB RB20 8
48 Drew Brees NO QB3 5
49 Sammy Watkins LAR WR25 8
50 Greg Olsen CAR TE3 11
51 Danny Woodhead BAL RB21 10
52 Jordan Reed WAS TE4 5
53 Mark Ingram NO RB22 5
54 Tyreek Hill KC WR26 10
55 Bilal Powell NYJ RB23 11
56 Stefon Diggs MIN WR27 9
57 Jamison Crowder WAS WR28 5
58 Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR29 5
59 C.J. Anderson DEN RB24 5
60 Jimmy Graham SEA TE5 6
61 Kelvin Benjamin CAR WR30 11
62 Matt Ryan ATL QB4 5
63 Russell Wilson SEA QB5 6
64 Martavis Bryant PIT WR31 9
65 Ameer Abdullah DET RB25 7
66 Tevin Coleman ATL RB26 5
67 Willie Snead NO WR32 5
68 Pierre Garcon SF WR33 11
69 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE6 9
70 Frank Gore IND RB27 11
71 Tyler Eifert CIN TE7 6
72 Brandon Marshall NYG WR34 8
73 Mike Gillislee NE RB28 9
74 Theo Riddick DET RB29 7
75 Kirk Cousins WAS QB6 5
76 Jeremy Maclin BAL WR35 10
77 Delanie Walker TEN TE8 8
78 Zach Ertz PHI TE9 10
79 Paul Perkins NYG RB30 8
80 DeSean Jackson TB WR36 11
81 Marcus Mariota TEN QB7 8
82 Jameis Winston TB QB8 11
83 Cam Newton CAR QB9 11
84 Eric Decker TEN WR37 8
85 Andrew Luck IND QB10 11
86 Devante Parker MIA WR38 11
87 Doug Martin TB RB31 11
88 Adrian Peterson NO RB32 5
89 Terrance West BAL RB33 10
90 Tyrell Williams LAC WR39 9
91 Donte Moncrief IND WR40 11
92 Martellus Bennett GB TE10 8
93 Duke Johnson CLE RB34 9
94 LeGarrette Blount PHI RB35 10
95 Derek Carr OAK QB11 10
96 Randall Cobb GB WR41 8
97 Adam Thielen MIN WR42 9
98 Kenny Britt CLE WR43 9
99 Eric Ebron DET TE11 7
100 Dak Prescott DAL QB12 6
101 Eddie Lacy SEA RB36 6
102 Jordan Matthews BUF WR44 6
103 C.J. Prosise SEA RB37 6
104 Mike Wallace BAL WR45 10
105 Philip Rivers LAC QB13 9
106 Jack Doyle IND TE12 11
107 Robert Kelley WAS RB38 5
108 Corey Coleman CLE WR46 9
109 John Brown ARI WR47 8
110 Hunter Henry LAC TE13 9
111 Derrick Henry TEN RB39 8
112 Matthew Stafford DET QB14 7
113 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB15 9
114 James White NE RB40 9
115 Matt Forte NYJ RB41 11
116 Rishard Matthews TEN WR48 8
117 Corey Davis TEN WR49 8
118 Darren Sproles PHI RB42 10
119 Samaje Perine WAS RB43 5
120 Jonathan Stewart CAR RB44 11
121 Andy Dalton CIN QB16 6
122 Marvin Jones DET WR50 7
123 Darren McFadden DAL RB45 6
124 Tyrod Taylor BUF QB17 6
125 Zay Jones BUF WR51 6
126 Jason Witten DAL TE14 6
127 Eli Manning NYG QB18 8
128 Coby Fleener NO TE15 5
129 Kevin White CHI WR52 9
130 Thomas Rawls SEA RB46 6
131 Ted Ginn NO WR53 5
132 Jacquizz Rodgers TB RB47 11
133 Denver Broncos DST1 5
134 Giovani Bernard CIN RB48 6
135 C.J. Fiedorowicz HOU TE16 7
136 Sterling Shepard NYG WR54 8
137 Seattle Seahawks DST2 6
138 Houston Texans DST3 7
139 Josh Doctson WAS WR55 5
140 Carson Wentz PHI QB19 10
141 Austin Hooper ATL TE17 5
142 Cole Beasley DAL WR56 6
143 Carson Palmer ARI QB20 8
144 Robby Anderson NYJ WR57 11
145 Chris Thompson WAS RB49 5
146 Cameron Brate TB TE18 11
147 Kansas City Chiefs DST4 10
148 Jamaal Williams GB RB50 8
149 Tyler Lockett SEA WR58 6
150 Julius Thomas MIA TE19 11
151 Jamaal Charles DEN RB51 5
152 Latavius Murray MIN RB52 9
153 Jeremy Hill CIN RB53 6
154 Alvin Kamara NO RB54 5
155 Robert Woods LAR WR59 8
156 Shane Vereen NYG RB55 8
157 Antonio Gates LAC TE20 9
158 Breshad Perriman BAL WR60 10
159 Minnesota Vikings DST5 9
160 Kenny Stills MIA WR61 11
161 Marqise Lee JAC WR62 8
162 Arizona Cardinals DST6 8
163 Blake Bortles JAC QB21 8
164 John Ross CIN WR63 6
165 O.J. Howard TB TE21 11
166 DeAndre Washington OAK RB56 10
167 Kenny Golladay DET WR64 7
168 New England Patriots DST7 9
169 Rex Burkhead NE RB57 9
170 Justin Tucker BAL K1 10
171 Sam Bradford MIN QB22 9
172 Jared Cook OAK TE22 10
173 Taylor Gabriel ATL WR65 5
174 Allen Hurns JAC WR66 8
175 Marlon Mack IND RB58 11
176 Joe Flacco BAL QB23 10
177 D’Onta Foreman HOU RB59 7
178 J.J. Nelson ARI WR67 8
179 Evan Engram NYG TE23 8
180 Joe Williams SF RB60 11
181 David Njoku CLE TE24 9
182 Charles Sims TB RB61 11
183 Dan Bailey DAL K2 6
184 Matt Bryant ATL K3 5
185 Stephen Gostkowski NE K4 9
186 Carolina Panthers DST8 11
187 Charles Clay BUF TE25 6
188 Cooper Kupp LAR WR68 8
189 Malcolm Mitchell NE WR69 9
190 Jonathan Williams BUF RB62 6
191 Mohamed Sanu ATL WR70 5
192 New York Giants DST9 8
193 Dion Lewis NE RB63 9
194 Jalen Richard OAK RB64 10
195 T.J. Yeldon JAC RB65 8
196 Mason Crosby GB K5 8
197 Jay Cutler MIA QB24 11
198 Nelson Agholor PHI WR71 10
199 Devin Funchess CAR WR72 11
200 Alex Smith KC QB25 10
201 Chris Conley KC WR73 10
202 Los Angeles Rams DST10 8
203 Jesse James PIT TE26 9
204 Zach Miller CHI TE27 9
205 Tavon Austin LAR WR74 8
206 Adam Vinatieri IND K6 11
207 Robert Turbin IND RB66 11
208 Austin Seferian-Jenkins NYJ TE28 11
209 Jacksonville Jaguars DST11 8
210 Torrey Smith PHI WR75 10
211 Will Fuller HOU WR76 7
212 ArDarius Stewart NYJ WR77 11
213 Mike Williams LAC WR78 9
214 Tim Hightower SF RB67 11
215 Jerick McKinnon MIN RB68 9
216 Dwayne Allen NE TE29 9
217 Benjamin Watson BAL TE30 10
218 Deshaun Watson HOU QB26 7
219 Brian Hoyer SF QB27 11
220 Matt Prater DET K7 7
221 Tyler Boyd CIN WR79 6
222 Paul Richardson SEA WR80 6
223 Cincinnati Bengals DST12 6
224 Pittsburgh Steelers DST13 9
225 Wendell Smallwood PHI RB69 10
226 Cairo Santos KC K8 10
227 Dustin Hopkins WAS K9 5
228 Philadelphia Eagles DST14 10
229 Curtis Samuel CAR WR81 11
230 Baltimore Ravens DST15 10
231 Steven Hauschka BUF K10 6
232 James Conner PIT RB70 9
233 Braxton Miller HOU WR82 7
234 Kyle Juszczyk SF RB71 11
235 De’Angelo Henderson DEN RB72 5
236 Chris Boswell PIT K11 9
237 Brandon LaFell CIN WR83 6
238 Trevor Siemian DEN QB28 5
239 Will Lutz NO K12 5
240 Tyler Higbee LAR TE31 8
241 Vance McDonald SF TE32 11
242 Jaron Brown ARI WR84 8
243 Laquon Treadwell MIN WR85 9
244 Los Angeles Chargers DST16 9
245 Chris Hogan NE WR86 9
246 Jeremy Kerley SF WR87 11
247 Carlos Henderson DEN WR88 5
248 Sebastian Janikowski OAK K13 10
249 Terrance Williams DAL WR89 6
250 Chris Ivory JAC RB73 8
251 Eli Rogers PIT WR90 9
252 Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST17 11
253 Atlanta Falcons DST18 5
254 Graham Gano CAR K14 11
255 Jared Goff LAR QB29 8
256 Orleans Darkwa NYG RB74 8
257 Caleb Sturgis PHI K15 10
258 Jermaine Gresham ARI TE33 8
259 Marquise Goodwin SF WR91 11
260 Alfred Morris DAL RB75 6
261 Zach Zenner DET RB76 7
262 Buffalo Bills DST19 6
263 Jeremy McNichols TB RB77 11
264 Tennessee Titans DST20 8
265 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR92 9
266 Oakland Raiders DST21 10
267 Brandon McManus DEN K16 5
268 Dion Sims CHI TE34 9
269 Kendall Wright CHI WR93 9
270 Erik Swoope IND TE35 11
271 Travis Benjamin LAC WR94 9
272 Mike Glennon CHI QB30 9
273 Tarik Cohen CHI RB78 9
274 Miami Dolphins DST22 11
275 Mitch Trubisky CHI QB31 9
276 Green Bay Packers DST23 8
277 Elijah Hood OAK RB79 10
278 Wayne Gallman NYG RB80 8
279 Javorius Allen BAL RB81 10
280 DeShone Kizer CLE QB32 9
281 Indianapolis Colts DST24 11
282 Chandler Catanzaro NYJ K17 11
283 Tom Savage HOU QB32 7
284 A.J. Derby DEN TE36 5
285 Charone Peake NYJ WR95 11
286 Branden Oliver LAC RB82 9
287 Michael Floyd MIN WR96 9
288 Aaron Jones GB RB83 8
289 Gary Barnidge FA TE37
290 Seth Roberts OAK WR97 10
291 Gerald Everett LAR TE38 8
292 Andre Ellington ARI RB84 8
293 Blair Walsh SEA K18 6
294 New York Jets RB85 11
295 Jeremy Langford CHI RB86 9
296 Nick Novak HOU K19 7
297 Chester Rogers IND WR98 11
298 Jimmy Garoppolo NE QB33 9
299 Kenyan Drake MIA RB87 11
300 Josh McCown NYJ QB34 11
301 Chad Williams ARI WR99 8
302 Taywan Taylor TEN WR100 8
303 Maxx Williams BAL TE39 10
304 Nick Folk TB K20 11
305 Wendall Williams HOU WR101 7
306 Chicago Bears DST25 9
307 Washington Redskins DST26 5
308 Phil Dawson ARI K21 8
309 Chris Johnson ARI RB88 8
310 Ladarius Green FA TE40
311 Jordan Leggett NYJ TE41 11
312 Tajae Sharpe TEN WR102 8
313 Vernon Davis WAS TE42 5
314 Josh Gordon CLE WR103 9
315 Benny Cunningham CHI RB89 9
316 Andre Holmes BUF WR104 6
317 Dontrelle Inman LAC WR105 9
318 Seth DeValve CLE TE43 9
319 Alfred Blue HOU RB90 7
320 Aldrick Robinson SF WR106 11
321 Chris Carson SEA RB91 6
322 Charcandrick West KC RB92 10
323 Lance Dunbar LAR RB93 8
324 Matt Jones WAS RB94 5
325 DeAngelo Williams FA RB95
326 Brock Osweiler CLE QB35 9
327 Cody Kessler CLE QB36 9
328 Danny Amendola NE WR107 9
329 Paxton Lynch DEN QB37 5
330 Dallas Cowboys DST27 6
331 Josh Lambo LAC K22 9
332 Donnel Pumphrey PHI RB96 10
333 Lance Kendricks GB TE44 8
334 Leonte Carroo MIA WR108 11
335 Dorial Green-Beckham FA WR109
336 Matt Breida SF RB97 11
337 Dede Westbrook JAC WR110 8
338 Amara Darboh SEA WR111 6
339 Malcolm Brown LAR RB98 8
340 Chris Godwin TB WR112 11
341 Mychal Rivera JAC TE45 8
342 Ryan Switzer DAL WR113 6
343 New Orleans Saints DST28 5
344 Markus Wheaton CHI WR114 9
345 Robbie Gould SF K23 11
346 Detroit Lions DST29 7
347 Jason Myers JAC K24 8
348 Ryan Succop TEN K25 8
349 Rashard Higgins CLE WR115 9
350 Damien Williams MIA RB99 11

RB Committee Review

prosiseOften times the running back position is the most volatile when we enter the preseason as NFL head coaches have begun to compliment their rosters with a deeper stable of running backs, ultimately leading to ugly fantasy committees.

While we do our best to read the tea leaves early in the preseason, ultimately there are several surprises that pop up as we enter the games that matter.

Washington Redskins – Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine

What started as one of the trendiest picks of the off-season, the hype surrounding Perine has cooled off considerably after a roller coaster of a preseason. At times he was dominant, but at others he was lethargic and failed to hit the holes. It seems for a time that Rob Kelley is back in the driver seat in the Washington backfield. If you’re an owner of either of these backs, though, I’d compel you to pay close attention to how Kelley plays early because the leash will likely be short.

Carolina Panthers – Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey

There is certainly going to be a division of responsibility in this backfield but what seemed early on to be McCaffrey’s backfield to lose has become a bit of a committee after a rather impressive preseason by incumbent starter Stewart. At his current ADP Stewart is the far more valuable back as he’ll be in line for the bulk of the goal line carries and a good amount of inside the 20 runs, but McCaffrey certainly offers a lot of upside especially in PPR leagues. Be cautious at his current value, though, as Stewart is all but guaranteed to get a good portion of the split.

Cleveland Browns – Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr.

While I personally think that Crowell will get the bulk of meaningful carries in this offense, the truth is that the fantasy community is divided over the value of the 24 year old back. With Johnson in the fray, third downs and passing situations are going to be his, so Crowell’s value caps at roughly a RB2 but both backs could be in line for a lot of work as the passing game took a bit of a step back with the loss of Terrelle Prior. It should be interesting to see if Crowell can be more consistent this year, because he has a chance to really reward drafters during the season.

Green Bay Packers – Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams

I’m not sure if I’m in the minority on this one, but I find it hard to believe that the Green Bay drafted Williams this year without the intentions of starting him at his natural position. Montgomery is a fantastic passing option out of the backfield but he struggles in pass protection and he hasn’t nearly shown the consistency necessary to be considered a top 25 back, yet here we are. I’d argue that Williams will be the starter before season end and in the first few weeks the time share in the backfield will skew heavily in his favor.

New England Patriots – Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead

A mainstay on these committee lists, New England went out and procured two new running backs in the off season and fantasy players were left scratching their heads at how all of these backs could possibly be used. As the season inches closer we still don’t know. The truth is that Gillislee is the most talented back on the roster in terms of running the football. After his success in Buffalo, New England sought out a back they could give the ball to 15 times a game and he should be the guy. Burkhead was a trendy pick after a few really solid practices and preseason performances, but I’d caution that James White is the true pass catching back in this offense leaving little more than scraps for Burkhead to work with.

New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson

It seems disingenuous to your 27 year old former Heisman trophy winner to go out and sign a 32 year old Adrian Peterson to compete for touches, but that’s exactly what the Saints did. Are they worried about Ingram’s injury history? Possibly, but I think that they saw a possibly stud that could help the team and said to hell with the consequences in terms of fantasy. For me, I’m not touching this backfield because both backs are capable number ones and there’s little reason for the Saints to favor one over the other. This is a straight up 50/50 committee and unless you think one or the other is going to get hurt, this is a backfield to avoid (especially that both backs are being drafted in the top 30-35 of the position!)

New York Jets – Bilal Powell and Matt Forte

One wonders if Matt Forte has anything left in the tank. After a surprisingly effective start to the year, Forte slowed significantly, opening running room for Powell who managed 750 or so yards on only 131 carries. Even if Forte starts the season at the top of the depth chart, Powell figures to be the third down pack, and is in line for 50-60 receptions on top of whatever yards he manages on the ground. Neither back is going to be a big factor in terms of touchdowns leaving Powell with the only back with value on the roster as Forte is likely to see his touches and yards decline.

Seattle Seahawks – Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls, and C.J. Prosise 

I could have included Carson’s name in there as well, but the competition really features a who’s who of injury report players and ineffective cast offs. Lacy was once an early fantasy pick after two monster years in Green Bay but now he finds himself running behind a porous offensive line with younger, more talented backs breathing down his neck. With Thomas Rawls, his only question is his health, as he is mightily effective when he DOES play. Will he play? Who knows, as he’s alreaddy dealing with some bumps and bruises. For my money, pass catcher C.J. Prosises is the best pick in the backfield. It’s not unrealistic to think he’ll lead the ground game too, but he’ll be in line for 40+ catches and at his current draft spot (later and later) he’ll return your investment in spades if you flex him right.

 

The ADP Game: Rounds 16-20

With the NFL season creeping ever closer, we’ll examine current consensus ADP data provided by Fantasypros.com to discuss the players we love and the players we hate based on where they’re being drafted. 

Round 16

  1. Carolina Panthers DST
  2. Darren Sproles
  3. John Ross
  4. Mason Crosby
  5. Graham Gano
  6. Carson Palmer
  7. Joe Williams
  8. Zay Jones
  9. Taylor Gabriel
  10. Coby Fleener

Player I Love – Zay Jones: Maybe it’s low hanging fruit, but with Sammy Watkins gone and Jordan Matthews nursing a broken sternum, Jones has a very real chance to start the year as the top WR by default. While I doubt he’ll have enough work to be a top 20 WR, he’ll far out perform his late draft position.

Player I Hate – Coby Fleener: The hype should have died a long time ago, but Fleener found himself in the enviable position of catching passes from Drew Brees and fantasy fan boys were salivating. Sadly Fleener was NOT the second coming of Jimmy Graham, and all he offers is the occasional big week when he catches a touch down. The TE position has great depth and Fleener just isn’t that good.

Round 17

  1. Cole Beasley
  2. Tyler Lockett
  3. Cairo Santos
  4. Jonathan Williams
  5. Austin Hooper
  6. Steven Hauschka
  7. Adam Vinatieri
  8. Kenny Golladay
  9. Sebastian Janikowski
  10. Julius Thomas

Player I Love – Cole Beasley: Do you think he’ll lead the Dallas passing attack in targets and catches again? Me either, but let’s be honest; he’s being drafted in the 17th round! As the second option in that offense, Beasley should be inline for another 70 or so catches, giving him big time PPR value.

Player I Hate – All the Kickers in this round: Okay, it’s a cop out, but I like all of the skill position players in this round and I hate taking kickers early. That being said, this late in drafts there’s very little downside to grabbing a high value player even if it IS a kicker, but I’d rather one of the other guys.

Round 18

  1. Cameron Brate
  2. Giovani Bernard
  3. Josh Doctson
  4. Baltimore Ravens
  5. Rex Burkhead
  6. J.J. Nelson
  7. Los Angeles Rams DST
  8. Will Lutz
  9. Pittsburgh Steelers DST
  10. Jared Cook

Player I Love – Rex Burkhead: The news that Mike Gillislee is “100%” is a bit disconcerting, but the bottom line is Burkhead has looked fantastic in what work he’s gotten and Gillislee hasn’t played yet. Sure, drafting a Patriots back is a nerve racking activity, but there’s relatively low risk and Burkhead could pay off in spades.

Player I Hate: J.J. Nelson: Either you believe John Brown is the next big receiver in Arizona or you don’t but there isn’t likely enough passes to go around in an offense that is unequivocally David Johnson’s to justify rostering Nelson. Sure, keep an eye on him should Brown stumble or the aging Fitzgerald get hurt, but there are a number of high upside players available behind him that should be a priority.

Round 19

  1. Kevin White
  2. Marlon Mack
  3. Dion Lewis
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars DST
  5. Deshaun Watson
  6. Robby Anderson
  7. Chalder Catanzaro
  8. Mohamed Sanu
  9. Antonio Gates
  10. Evan Engram

Player I love – Marlon Mack: I’ve tried predicting the demise of Frank Gore in the past, and maybe I just like when he proves me wrong, but at some point he has to break down and with Luck potentially missing time, the workload could prove to be too much. That’s where Marlon Mack comes in – he’ll likely get some work early even with Gore on the field, but it’s only a matter of time before the job is his.

Player I hate – Dion Lewis: Does Lewis even make the team in New England? Who knows, but with additions to the backfield and the return of the now-paid James White mean there’s not much room for Lewis to run. Last year he was a trendy pick to lead the mid-round backs, but this year he’s a cautionary tale of when to read the tea leaves.

Round 20

  1. Philadelphia Eagles DST
  2. Chris Boswell
  3. D’Onta Foreman
  4. Cooper Kupp
  5. Blake Bortles
  6. Joe Flacco
  7. Matt Prater
  8. Kenny Stills
  9. Atlanta Falcons DST
  10. Alex Smith

Player I love – Joe Flacco: The Ravens have been taking a cautious approach to returning Flacco to the field, but sooner or later they’re going to need him playing football if they want to win games. With new pass catchers in Danny Woodhead and Jeremy Maclin, not to mention a fairly easy fantasy schedule, Flacco could be see this year return him to fantasy relevance.

Player I Hate – Cooper Kupp: When Sammy Watkins was traded to the Rams, Kupp’s sleeper status took a nose dive. Now the number 3 receiver at best, and expected to miss time, Kupp should be a waiver pick up at best, and even then it’s likely for a spot start.

 

 

Keeper League Draft Review

The first of Dr. Fantasy’s drafts took place on Saturday August 26th, and what follows is a round by round review of the action. After finishing in 4th last year, the below are the keepers and the rounds they are in. Keep in mind this is a 2QB Super-flex league with 30 total keepers.

  • Golden Tate (Rnd 5) I was torn on this selection as Derek Carr and Ameer Abdullah both conflicted with other keepers so Tate was the winner by default.
  • Kirk Cousins (Rnd 8)
  • Michael Thomas (Rnd 12)

Round 1

  • Le’Veon Bell, RB – PIT
  • Atonio Brown, WR – PIT
  • Julio Jones, WR – ATL
  • LeSean McCoy, RB – BUF
  • Jordy Nelson, WR – GB
  • Tom Brady, QB – NE
  • Aaron Rodgers, QB – GB
  • Mike Evans, WR – TB
  • Ezekiel Elliott, RB – DAL
  • Jordan Howard, RB – CHI

My selection: LeSEan McCoy. I was concerned that the depth at RB was gutted due to key keepers, and I could afford to take a chance here as I already roster two top 25 WR’s in Thomas and Tate. The Jordy Nelson pick may end up being one of the strangest picks in the draft as our return champion passed on both elite QB’s and Mike Evans (whom I have ranked higher) to draft the aging #1 in green bay. Best Pick: Jordan Howard, 1.10

Round 2

  • A.J. Green, WR – CIN
  • Dez Bryant, WR – DAL
  • T.Y. Hilton, WR – IND
  • DeMarco Murray, RB – TEN
  • Leonard Fournette, RB – JAC
  • Drew Brees, QB – NO
  • Rob Gronkowski, TE – NE
  • Lamar Miller, RB – HOU
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB – CAR
  • Russell Wilson, QB – SEA

My selection: Rob Gronkowski. I knew it would be slim pickings on the second tier of RB’s when it got back to me, and with Brees going just before me, I went against every instinct I had and drafted Gronk to give me an edge at the TE position (and the last elite player due to keepers). Fournette was a ballsy pick considering his lingering injury issues and his standings slide. He’s in line for a ton of work, but the more dynamic Lamar Miller was still available. Best Pick: DeMarco Murray, 2.04

Round 3

  • Greg Olsen, TE – CAR
  • Travis Kelce, TE – KC
  • Marshawn Lynch, RB – OAK
  • Dalvin Cook, RB – MIN
  • Mark Ingram, RB – NO
  • Demaryius Thomas, WR – DEN
  • Jarvis Landry, WR – MIA
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR – HOU
  • Alshon Jeffrey, WR – PHI
  • Keenan Allen, WR – LAC

My Selection: Dalvin Cook. This was a case of get who you want considering I had 12 picks until my next selection. I’m really high on Cook and knew after Fournette and McCaffrey had gone I wasn’t going to get him in the 4th. The latter half of this round has plenty of players with huge ceilings and plenty of questions; most of them surrounding who is throwing the football in said offense. Best Pick: Alshon Jeffrey, 3.09

Round 4

  • Todd Gurley, RB – LAR
  • Ty Montgomery, RB – GB
  • Allen Robinson, WR – JAC
  • Joe Mixon, RB – CIN
  • Carlos Hyde, RB – SF
  • Michael Crabtree, WR – OAK
  • Davante Adams, WR – GB
  • Amari Cooper, WR – OAK
  • Kareem Hunt – RB KC
  • Emmanuel Sanders, WR – DEN

My Selection: Davante Adams. If I had been paying attention I would have likely grabbed Kareem Hunt, unfortunately I was more concerned about filling out my WR’s, as I like to do in PPR leagues. Adams offers huge upside (solid WR2 regardless of a healthy Nelson) who under the right circumstances could find himself a borderline WR1. Best Pick: Kareem Hunt, 4.09

Round 5

  • Jamies Winston, QB – TB
  • Marcus Mariota, QB – TEN
  • Cam Newton, QB – CAR
  • Golden Tate, WR – DET
  • Larry Fitzgerald, WR – ARI
  • Brandon Marshall, WR – NYG
  • Willie Snead, WR – NO
  • Mike Gillislee, RB – NE
  • Kelvin Benjamin, WR – CAR
  • Ben Roethlisberger, QB – PIT

My Selection: Golden Tate. I had my first keeper in this round, and any second thoughts I had about keeping Tate were erased as Fitzgerals, Marshall, and Snead went off the board (all WR’s I’d pass on for Tate). Not knowing who is keeping whom in keeper formats is always a challenge, but keeping a volume WR in PPR is a safe bet. Best Pick: Kelvin Benhamin, 5.09

Round 6

  • C.J. Anderson, RB – DEN
  • Andrew Luck, QB – IND
  • Kyle Rudolph, TE – MIN
  • Adrian Peterson, RB – NO
  • DeSean Jackson, WR – TB
  • Eli Manning, QB – NYG
  • Philip Rivers, QB – LAC
  • Tyrod Taylor, QB – BUF
  • Devante Parker, WR – MIA
  • Bilal Powell, RB – NYJ

My Selection: Philip Rivers. I waited long enough in a league that allows you to start three QB’s and grabbed my highest ranked QB available. This strategy has worked in the past but this year QB’s went early and often and the 5th round bye hurt me in terms of who was available. Round 6 saw the first specialist and backup RB’s taken in Peterson and Powell. Best Pick: C.J. Anderson 6.01

Round 7

  • Martavus Bryant, WR – PIT
  • Melvin Gordon, RB – LAC
  • Jamison Crowder, WR – WAS
  • Ameer Abdullah, RB – DET
  • Latavius Murray, RB – MIN
  • Sammy Watkins, WR – LAR
  • Matthew Stafford, QB – DET
  • Devonta Freeman, RB – ATL
  • Pierre Garcon, WR – SF
  • Andy Dalton, QB – CIN

My Selection: Ameer Abdullah. I could have gone with a safer pick here like Woodhead or even the suspended Doug Martin, but Abdullah’s skill has always intrigued me and I feel like the breakout is on the horizon. Of course he has to stay healthy. Speaking of health, is Latavius Murray worth a 7th round pick? To the guy I offered Murray to in the offseason in the 14th round? Strange… Best Pick: Jamison Crowder 7.03 (keepers don’t qualify for best picks… sorry Freeman in the 7th).

Round 8

  • Doug Martin, RB – TB
  • Darren McFadden, RB – DAL
  • Matt Ryan, QB – ATL
  • Brandin Cooks, WR – NE
  • Zach Ertz, TE – PHI
  • Mike Wallace, WR – BAL
  • Kirk Cousins, QB – WAS
  • Frank Gore, RB – IND
  • Rob Kelley, RB – WAS
  • Danny Woodhead, RB – BAL

My Selection: Kirk Cousins. I’m happy with where I have the 7th overall QB, especially given that there’s only a handful of starters still available (one of whom will have to be my third starter). Rob Kelley goes ahead of Perine in our draft despite the hype and Kelley’s underwhelming season last year. Best Pick: Danny Woodhead, 8.10

Round 9

  • Stefon Diggs, WR – Min
  • Sam Bradford, QB – MIN
  • Theo Riddick, RB – DET
  • LeGarrette Blount, RB – PHI
  • Eric Decker, WR – TEN
  • Duke Johnson, RB – CLE
  • Alex Smith, QB – KC
  • Dak Prescott, QB – DAL
  • Jeremy Maclin, WR – BAL
  • Derrick Henry, RB – TEN

My Selection: LeGarrette Blount. I know I know… I’ve been out of Blount all year, but with no safe lead backs left on the board, I figured I’d take a gamble on the big man. After 1,000 yards and 18 TD’s last year in an offense that doesn’t really run the football, I expect regression but still a quality RB 3 season out of Blount. Best Pick: Jeremy Maclin, 9.09

Round 10

  • Jordan Reed, TE – WAS
  • James White, RB – NE
  • Blake Bortles, QB – JAC
  • Eric Ebron, TE – DET
  • Jamaal Charles, RB – DEN
  • Malcom Mitchell, WR – NE
  • Samaje Perine, RB – WAS
  • Tevin Coleman, RB – ATL
  • Donte Moncrief, WR – IND
  • Tyler Eifert, TE – CIN

My Selection: Samaje Perine. I know the bandwagon has lost a few riders after a dismal performance against Cincinnati the past week, but I still project Perine as the eventual starter in this offense, and his skill set is far broader than Kelley’s. As always in multi-QB leagues, guys like Bortles are a last resort for teams who waited too long (or just want to take a shot with their 4th guy). Best Pick – Tyler Eifert, 10.10

Round 11

  • Corey Davis, WR – TEN
  • Kevin White, WR – CHI
  • Carson Palmer, QB – ARI
  • Tyrell Williams, WR – LAC
  • David Johnson, RB – ARI
  • Denver Bronco’s DST
  • Randall Cobb, WR – GB
  • C.J. Prosise, RB – SEA
  • Eddie Lacy, RB – SEA
  • Corey Coleman, WR – CLE

My Selection: Tyrell Williams. There was a lot of young players and rookies drafted in round 11, but I’m happy with the undrafted Williams as my 4th WR. With questions about Mike William’s availability and Keenan Allen’s injury history, it’s a safe bet that Williams will see a good amount of work this year regardless. Best Pick: Kevin White, 11.02

Round 12

  • Adam Thielen, WR – MIN
  • Rishard Matthews, WR – TEN
  • Charles Sims, RB – TB
  • Cole Beasley, WR – DAL
  • Derek Carr, QB – OAK
  • Isaiah Crowell, RB – CLE
  • Michael Thomas, WR – NO
  • Sterling Shepard, WR – NYG
  • Matt Forte, RB – NYJ
  • Paul Perkins, RB – NYG

My Selection: Michael Thomas. It’s always nice to have a top 15 pick in a later keeper round, even if it means trading away Derek Carr in the same round to keep him. There were several keepers here so there is a definate parody between Thomas, Carr, and Crowell and guys like Forte and Sims. Best Pick: Adam Thielen, 12.01

Round 13

  • Marlon Mack, RB – IND
  • Giovani Bernard, RB – CIN
  • Hunter Henry, TE – LAC
  • John Brown, WR – ARI
  • Cameron Brate, TE – TB
  • Jordan Matthews, WR – PHI
  • Alvin Kamara, RB – NO
  • Kenny Britt, WR – CLE
  • Trevor Siemian, QB – DEN
  • Jacquizz Rodgers, RB – TB

My Selection: John Brown. I wasn’t sold on his hype last year, and I’m not entirely sure I’m sold on it this year, but while Fitzgerald slowly marches towards the end of a hall of fame career, Brown is the best suited to fill in the gaps as Palmer still needs to chuck the ball around. Best Pick: John Brown, 13.04

Round 14

  • Zay Jones, WR – BUF
  • Julius Thomas, TE – MIA
  • Joe Williams, RB – SF
  • Kenny Golloday, WR – DET
  • Mike Williams, WR – LAC
  • Darren Sproles, RB – PHI
  • Austin Hooper, TE – ATL
  • Chris Thompson, RB – WAS
  • Jay Cutler, QB – MIA
  • Jamaal Williams, RB – GB

My Selection: Austin Hooper. At this point, it’s keeper hour and guys were obviously spending picks on guys they think may elevate their game at some point. I had Hooper targeted as an early breakout candidate, and with Gronk on the roster, I need a solid backup just in case. Best Pick: Chris Thompson, 14.07

Round 15

  • Cooper Kupp, WR – LAR
  • Jonathan Stewart, RB – CAR
  • Marvin Jones, WR – DET
  • Seattle Seahawks DST
  • Josh Docston, WR – WAS
  • Chris Hogan, WR – NE
  • Jeremy McNichols, RB – TB
  • Wayne Gallman, RB – NYG
  • Jay Ajayi, RB – MIA
  • D’onta Forman, RB – HOU

My Selection, Seattle Defense. I toyed with the idea of grabbing D’onta Forman at this point in the draft, but took the route less traveled (for me) and kept swinging for the fences by selecting the second defense taken. Some interesting names went in this round as three second fiddle backs and one deep sleeper went. Best Pick: D’onta Forman, 15.10

Round 16

  • Tyreek Hill, WR – KC
  • Delanie Walker, TE – TEN
  • Kerwynn Williams, RB – ARI
  • O.J. Howard, TE – TB
  • Jason Witten, TE – DAL
  • Martell Bennett, TE – GB
  • Robert Woods, WR – LAR
  • Jimmy Graham, TE – NO
  • Jack Doyle, TE – IND
  • Tyler Lockett, WR – SEA

My Selection: Robert Woods. I could have very easily gotten caught up in the TE run that was going through the heart of round 16 (I had a few targeted for depth to ensure I was covered in the event of a Gronk injury) but I took a player I think has a good chance to lead the Rams in targets. Best Pick: Jason Witten 16.05

Round 17

  • Chris Carson, RB – SEA
  • Odell Beckham JR, WR – NYG
  • Justin Tucker, K – BAL
  • Joe Flacco, QB – BAL
  • Rex Burkhead, RB – NE
  • Stephen Goskowski, K – NE
  • Thomas Rawls, RB – SEA
  • Deandre Washington, RB – OAK
  • Jeremy Hill, RB – CIN
  • Wendell Smallwood, RB – PHi

My Selection: Joe Flacco. I secretly targeted Flacco weeks ago… which if you’d read my articles on sleepers and QB’s you have known that I think the re-stocked weapons are a shade better this year than last and I’m buying into the charmin-soft passing defenses that the Ravens get to play this year. Also, for any of you thinking about drafting a kicker in anything other than the last three rounds; don’t. Best Pick: Rex Burkhead, 17.05

Round 18

  • Robby Anderson, WR – NYJ
  • Carson Wentz, QB – PHI
  • Dion Lewis, RB – NE
  • Jared Cook, TE – OAK
  • Julian Edelman, WR – NE
  • Kenny Still, WR – Mia
  • Jonathan Williams, RB – BUF
  • John Ross, WR – CIN
  • Will Fuller, WR – HOU
  • Nelson Agholor, WR – PHI

My Selection, Jonathan Williams. This one stung a bit because I knew I wanted to cuff Williams to McCoy; Buffalo is going to run the ball, and run it well regardless of who’s under center. But the names that went immediately following the pick were ones I was hoping would survive the 6 picks back to me. Best Pick: Nelson Agholor, 18.10

Round 19

  • Deshone Kizer, QB – CLE
  • NE Patriots DST
  • T.J. Yeldon, RB – JAC
  • Jared Goff, QB – LAR
  • Kansas City Chiefs DST
  • Torrey Smith, WR – PHI
  • Doug Baldwin, WR – SEA
  • Minnesota Vikings DST
  • Danny Amendola, WR – NE
  • Coby Fleener, TE – NO

My Selection: Jared Goff. He was selected first over all years ago, and I need to hedge my Flacco bets assuming he’s injured or anything less than 100% to start the year. This amounts to a late round flier, but Goff has the shortest of leashes if he stumbles badly. Best Pick: T.J. Yeldon, 19.03

Round 20

  • Tarik Cohen, RB – CHI
  • Houston Texans DST
  • Matt Bryant, K – ATL
  • Jacksonville Jaguars DST
  • Dwayne Allen, TE – NE
  • Mason Crosby, K – GB
  • Zach Zenner, RB – DET
  • Arizona Cardinals DST
  • Josh Lambo, K – LAC
  • Dan Bailey, K – DAL

My Selection: Zach Zenner. At this point in the draft the pickings are slim. It’s more likely (in my mind) that I’ll benefit from handcuffing Abdullah’s backup given his injury history. This round is proof that waiting on your kicker is a far more sound strategy considering Tucker and Gostkowski went three rounds earlier than Mason Crosby and provide far less value than skill position players like John Ross or Nelson Agholor.

Round 21

  • Terrance West, RB – BAL
  • Terrelle Pryor, WR – WAS
  • Devin Funchess, WR – CAR
  • Evan Engram, TE – NYG
  • Jake Butt, TE – DEN
  • Mohamad Sanu, WR – AT
  • Dustin Hopkins, K – WAS
  • James Conner, RB – PIT
  • Matt Prater, K – DEN
  • Adam Vinatieri, K – IND

My Selection: Evan Engram. My last positional player selected was naturally one of my favorite deep sleepers; TE Evan Engram of the Giants. While I don’t expect him to consistently put up big numbers in that offense, I could see him become a reliable source of red zone looks as well as the athletic pass catching potential to find himself pushing the top 15 TEs and screamin’ for a keeper selection. Best Selection: Devin Funchess.

Round 22

  • Baltimore Ravens DST
  • Shane Vereen, RB – NYG
  • Jalen Richard, RB – OAK
  • Deshaun Watson, QB – HOU
  • Juju Smith-schuster, WR – PIT
  • Geno Smith, QB – NYG
  • Steven Hauschka, K – BUF
  • Adarius Stewart, WR – NYJ
  • Jaron Brown- RB – ARI
  • Cincinatti Bengals DST

My Selection: Steven Haschka. To be fair, I’ve already dropped Hauschka and replaced him with Wil Lutz, but either way I don’t love either player… because who cares about kickers! A few “funny business” pick in this round made for an interest wrap up and Jaron Brown is Mr. Irrelevant (last positional player picked in the draft). Best Pick: Deshaun Watson. 

The ADP Game: Round 11-15

With the NFL season creeping ever closer, we’ll examine current consensus ADP data provided by Fantasypros.com to discuss the players we love and the players we hate based on where they’re being drafted. 

Round 11

  1. Theo Riddick, RB – DET
  2. Davante Parker, WR – MIA
  3. Cameron Meredith, WR – CHI
  4. Denver Broncos DST
  5. Matt Forte, RB – NYJ
  6. Hunter Henry, TE – LAC
  7. Samaje Perine, RB – WAS
  8. Stephon Gostkowski, K – NE
  9. Matt Stafford, QB – DET
  10. Kansas City Chiefs DST

Player I Love – Samaje Perine: Okay, so count me firmly seated on the Perine bandwagon, especially if his price stays in the 11th round. At this point, he’s far outperformed anyone else in the Washington backfield, and he’s looked pretty good at times. Even if Rob Kelley gets the start in week 1, it won’t be long before Perine is leading this backfield.

Player I Hate – Hunter Henry: I’m not drafting Henry any sooner than the last three or four rounds, and even then, only in dynasty or keeper formats. I know the buzz surrounding him is that he’s ready to break free from Antonio Gates’ shadow, but until Gates retires or leaves the Chargers, I’m not betting against him. It may be a 50/50 split between the 20’s (which leaves both with nominal value) but it will still be Gates in the red zone which limits Henry’s upside.

Round 12

  1. Latavius Murray, RB – MIN
  2. Corey Davis, WR – TEN
  3. Thomas Rawls, RB – SEA
  4. Justin Tucker, K – BAL
  5. Philip Rivers, QB – LAC
  6. Seattle Seahawks DST
  7. Darren McFadden, RB – DAL
  8. Houston Texans DST
  9. Corey Coleman, WR – CLE
  10. Tyrell Williams, WR – LAC

Player I love – Tyrell Williams: Yes, Keenan Allen is “healthy” and the Chargers drafted Mike Williams, but I’m not convinced either or both of those players will be healthy for any length of time. Allen is a time bomb and Williams is dealing with his own issues, and still Williams gets no love following a 1,000 yard season.

Player I Hate – Latavius Murray: It feels sacrilegious to say, but Murray’s done nothing for himself following the big payday he received in Minnesota to win that starting job. All Dalvin Cook has done has been impressive as a rookie, leading to doubts that Murray will find enough running room to be even

Round 13

  1. Kenny Britt, WR – CLE
  2. Rishard Matthews, WR – TEN
  3. John Brown, WR – ARI
  4. Matt Bryant, K – ATL
  5. Eric Ebron, TE – DET
  6. Arizona Cardinals DST
  7. Minnesota Vikings DST
  8. C.J. Prosise, RB – SEA
  9. Jack Doyle, TE – IND
  10. New England Patriots DST

Player I love – Kenny Britt: Britt slides into the Cleveland offense replacing the departing Terrelle Pryor and his 141 targets which could mean 70-80 receptions for the former Ram. If Britt maintains his career averages (or somewhere close to the 15 yards per catch) he should produce at least 1,000 yards. Target Britt all day in the 13th round.

Player I Hate – Eric Ebron: How long does a prospect get before the hype turns into hot air? Ebron is not a TE1, yet that’s exactly where he’s being drafted. Instead of leaping on Ebron, wait for a guy like Hooper, or Brate, or even Jason Witten in the later rounds.

Round 14

  1. Duke Johnson, RB – CLE
  2. Mike Wallace, WR – BAL
  3. James White, RB – NE
  4. Adam Thielen, WR – MIN
  5. Jeremy Hill, RB – CIN
  6. Eli Manning, QB – NYG
  7. Dan Bailey, K – DAL
  8. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB – TB
  9. O. J. Howard, TE – TB
  10. Marvin Jones, WR – DET

Player I love – Adam Thielen: Not much has changed in Minnesota besides the running game, and still Thielen and his nearly 1,000 yards is being drafted around the 150 mark. One of the best values in all of fantasy football this year, expect Thielen to at least match his numbers if not eclipse them all together.

Player I hate – Jeremy Hill: Joe Mixon is in town and impressive, and Gio Bernard should handle his fair share of passing downs leaving not much for the former early round pick to rely on. Sure, Mixon could stumble, but it seems the writing is on the wall for a player who doesn’t offer much upside at all.

Round 15

  1. Jamaal Charles, RB – DEN
  2. Jamaal Williams, RB – GB
  3. Jordan Matthews, WR – BUF
  4. Tyrod Taylor, QB – BUF
  5. Andy Dalton, QB – CIN
  6. New York Giants DST
  7. Sterling Shepard, WR – NYG
  8. Ted Ginn, WR – NO
  9. Carson Wentz, QB – PHI
  10. Jason Witten, TE – DAL

Player I love – Jamaal Williams: It still boggles my mind that an converted WR who played barely enough snaps to be considered a starting RB is being selected in the top 40 picks. Ty Montgomery is NOT the back of the future; Jamaal Williams is. Expect Williams to usurp the role pretty quickly as he’s shown an ability to block, which is important in an offense like Green Bay.

Player I Hate – Jamaal Charles: Sometimes a back hangs on too long, and it appears that this year could be the dud of a swan-song for the one time fantasy stud. If reports out of Denver are to be believed, Charles may not even make the team, much less give Anderson a run for his money at the top of the depth chart. Bookers injury clears space for Denver to keep him on the roster, but he won’t find his way onto mine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The ADP Game: Rounds 6-10

With the NFL season creeping ever closer, we’ll examine current consensus ADP data provided by Fantasypros.com to discuss the players we love and the players we hate based on where they’re being drafted. 

Round 6

  1. Mark Ingram, RB – NO
  2. Jordan Reed, TE – WAS
  3. Sammy Watkins, WR – LAR
  4. Julian Edelman, WR – NE
  5. Jimmy Graham, TE – SEA
  6. Kelvin Benjamin, WR – CAR
  7. Martavis Bryant, WR – PIT
  8. Golden Tate, WR – DET
  9. Russell Wilson, QB – SEA
  10. Mike Gillislee, RB – NE

Player I love – Golden Tate: After a rough stretch to start the season, Tate followed up the bye week by catching at least 5 catches over the final 6 weeks to finish just shy of 1,000 yards. In PPR leagues especially, his value is rock solid late in the 6th round.

Player I Hate – Martavis Bryant: A few years ago, Bryant flashed big play ability to grow into the kind of unsustainable hype machine that burns fantasy teams who over-commit to lack of performance. While the skill is certainly there, Bryant has yet to prove he’ll stay clear of discipline long enough to reward fantasy owners. With the names going after him I’m passing entirely in the 6th round.

Round 7

  1. Tevin Coleman, RB – ATL
  2. Larry Fitzgerald, WR – ARI
  3. Andrew Luck, QB – IND
  4. LeGarrette Blount, RB – PHI
  5. Tyler Eifert, TE – CIN
  6. Brandon Marshall, WR – NYG
  7. Bilal Powell, RB – NYJ
  8. Ameer Abdullah, RB – DET
  9. Emmanuel Sanders, WR – DEN
  10. Adrian Peterson, RB – NO

Player I love – Tyler Eifert: All Eifert does is catch touchdowns, to the tune of 18 over his last 21 games. Finally healthy, Eifert should continue to grow in the Bengals offense, and it feels comfortable to extrapolate the second half of last season to predict 750 yards and 10TDs.

Player I Hate – Bilal Powell: Don’t get me wrong, I was on the Powell train earlier in the off season too, but the buzz got too big and now he’s being drafted before starters like Perkins, Abdullah, Gore, and Martin… which feels far too early for me. He’ll have some decent games but the Jets are going to be bad this year and to commit to Powell in the 7th round is foolish.

Round 8

  1. Stefon Diggs – WR – MIN
  2. Jameis Winston, QB – TB
  3. Frank Gore, RB – IND
  4. Delanie Walker, TE – TEN
  5. Cam Newton, QB – CAR
  6. Derek Carr, QB – OAK
  7. Doug Martin, RB – TB
  8. Paul Perkins, RB – NYG
  9. Eddie Lacy, RB – SEA
  10. Kirk Cousins, QB – WAS

Player I love – Doug Martin: It’s likely that if Martin wasn’t facing a suspension, he’d be going in the first 3 rounds of drafts, but thanks to his absence, the Muscle Hamster has fallen to the round 8 range. His offseason performances have me leaning towards bounce back year with a RB1 ceiling in the weeks following his return, which is a steal in the 8th round or later.

Player I hate – Eddie Lacy: What seemed like a match made in heaven for Lacy and the Seahawks has turned into a situation that has fans wondering if he’ll even make the team. Thomas Rawls has been announced as the starter and we all know C.J. Prosise is a lock for third downs, leaving slim pickings for the anything-but-slim back. Sure, Lacy may start by default if Rawls can’t stay healthy, but it doesn’t bode well for confidence if you decide to take a chance on the former Packer.

Round 9

  1. Willie Snead, WR – NO
  2. Marcus Mariota, QB – TEN
  3. Kyle Rudolph, TE – MIN
  4. Jamison Crowder, WR – WAS
  5. Danny Woodhead, RB – BAL
  6. Derrick Henry, RB – TEN
  7. Matellus Bennett, TE – GB
  8. DeSean Jackson, WR – TB
  9. Robert Kelley, RB – WAS
  10. Donte Moncrief, WR – IND

Player I Love – DeSean Jackson: It’s no secret that I’ve been targeting Jackson since the day he signed in Tampa. A burner with elite speed, he’ll slot in on day one as the 2nd WR opposite Mike Evans. If you think he had room to run last year when he had 1,000 yards and average nearly 18 yards per catch, just imagine the room he’ll have with Evans drawing doubles and Winston’s cannon of an arm leading him down field. Consistency will likely be lacking since he won’t top the team in targets but in the 9th he’ll be fantastic value.

Player I Hate – Donte Moncrief: This isn’t to say that I think Moncrief is a bad player, but the situation in Indy is looking worse by the week and while T.Y. Hilton will still find his fair share of targets, Moncrief could be in fantasy trouble if Scott Tolzien is handling the football. If Moncrief falls a few rounds I may consider him, but in this position I’d go with any number of receivers over him.

Round 10

  1. Randall Cobb, WR – GB
  2. Eric Decker, WR – TEN
  3. Dak Prescott, QB – DAL
  4. Ben Roethlisberger, QB – PIT
  5. Pierre Garcon, WR – SF
  6. Kareem Hunt, RB – KC
  7. Zach Ertz, TE – PHI
  8. Jonathan Stewart, RB – CAR
  9. Jeremy Maclin, WR – BAL
  10. Terrance West, RB – BAL

Player I love – Eric Decker: After the drama surrounding Decker when he was cut with New York it seemed he may be destined for the veteran run around as he looked for a landing spot. Now he’s in Tennessee and the rumors are that he’s Mariota’s new favorite weapon and he’s been looking his way in the red zone an awful lot. Decker could be a massive value at his current ADP.

Player I Hate – Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben will still win a lot of games this year, and he does have Antonio Brown to throw to, but these things may convince you that he’s an elite fantasy QB when in reality that ship has sailed. This team is going rely on Le’Veon Bell more than ever and while Roethlisberg will be serviceable, he’s less valuable than he’s ever been.

The ADP Game: Rounds 1-5

With the NFL season creeping ever closer, we’ll examine current consensus ADP data provided by Fantasypros.com to discuss the players we love and the players we hate based on where they’re being drafted. 

Round 1

  1. David Johnson, RB – ARI
  2. Le’Veon Bell, RB – PIT
  3. Antonio Brown, WR – PIT
  4. Julio Jones, WR – ATL
  5. LeSean McCoy, RB – BUF
  6. Odell Beckham Jr., WR – NYG
  7. Mike Evans, WR – TB
  8. Devonta Freeman, RB – ATL
  9. Melvin Gordon, RB – LAC
  10. A.J. Green, WR – CIN

Player I love – Mike Evans: It’s the first round so you can’t really complain about Evans being ranked as the 4th best WR, but the fact is he was better than anyone NOT named Antonio Brown on a per game basis and finished as the #1 WR in overall points in 2016. At 24 years old and the undisputed #1 weapon in an improving offense, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish on top of the WR pool.

Player I hate – Melvin Gordon: Gordon’s career so far has been polarizing to say the least. After not recording a TD in over 200 touches as a rookie, Gordon returned the investments of his faithful by finding pay dirt 10 times. Still, he finished with less than a 1,000 yards and a sub 4 YPC mark that doesn’t exactly instill confidence that he’ll return as a RB1. Being drafted as the 5th RB is far too rich for my blood.

Round 2

  1. DeMarco Murray, RB – TEN
  2. Jordy Nelson, WR – GB
  3. Jordan Howard, RB – CHI
  4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB – DAL
  5. Jay Ajayi, RB – MIA
  6. Michael Thomas, WR – NO
  7. Aaron Rodgers, QB – GB
  8. Dez Bryant, WR – DAL
  9. Todd Gurley, RB – LAR
  10. Rob Gronkowski, TE – NE

Player I love – Todd Gurley: On the flip side of the Melvin Gordon coin is Todd Gurley. After an abysmal season Gurley has fallen down draft boards to the end of the 2nd round, but this isn’t like Trent Richardson or other flash-in-the-pan backs of the last 10 years. Gurley is the real deal, and the Rams offense looks like it’s improved dramatically in the off season thanks to free agent signings and trades. As the 10th back off the board, I’m more than comfortable with Gurley as my #1.

Player I hate – Jay Ajayi: The skills are there to be a very good NFL back, but the shine from three 200 yard rushing performances has blinded his fans from the fact that he just wasn’t that great in the rest of his games. Check out this article at Fantasypros that shows how often Ajayi finished as a top 20 back (TL:DR folks… it’s not enough to justify the 15th over all pick).

Round 3

  1. Leonard Fournette, RB – JAC
  2. T.Y Hilton, WR – IND
  3. Tom Brady, QB – NE
  4. Amari Cooper, WR – OAK
  5. Marshawn Lynch, RB – OAK
  6. Lamar Miller, RB – HOU
  7. Doug Baldwin. WR – SEA
  8. Brandin Cooks, WR – NE
  9. Isaiah Crowell, RB – CLE
  10. Christian McCaffrey, RB – CAR

Player I love – Doug Baldwin: He’s not a sexy name but he’s a machine that hauls in just about everything thrown his way. Last year he finished with 94 catches for 1100 yards and a top 10 WR finish in standard leagues, and that’s with the first half issues at QB. Especially in PPR leagues, Baldwin is a lock for about 100 receptions and 1,100 yards again.

Player I Hate – Amari Cooper: Just to clarify, I don’t hate the player in general, but he’s still being drafted based on hype rather than statistics. While it’s fair to assume that he’ll eventually overtake Michael Crabtree as the more productive Oakland receiver, I still won’t spend a 3rd round pick on the teams 2nd best receiver over the past two seasons.

Round 4

  1. DeAndre Hopkins, WR – HOU
  2. Drew Brees, QB – NO
  3. Demaryius Thomas, WR – DEN
  4. Terrelle Pryor, WR – WAS
  5. Joe Mixon, RB – CIN
  6. Alshon Jeffery, WR – PHI
  7. Travis Kelce, TE – KC
  8. Carlos Hyde, RB – SF
  9. Dalvin Cook, RB – MIN
  10. Matt Ryan, QB – ATL

Player I love – Carlos Hyde: Hyde, on a per game basis, finished as the RB10 despite San Fransisco’s abysmal offense last year. This year, the needle is pointing up (ever so slightly) with the addition of high flying Kyle Shanahan to the offense. Don’t buy into the buzz that Hyde isn’t his guy; he’s the most talented back on this roster and will push for RB10 again this year.

Player I hate – Terrelle Pryor: I mean… it’s a fun story that Pryor has resurrected what looked like a lousy career by switching to WR but going from Cleveland where he was targeted 140 times to Washington where he’ll split looks with Doctson, Crowder, and Reed doesn’t really scream “better”. He’ll be good, but he won’t be round 4 good.

Round 5

  1. Keenan Allen, WR – LAC
  2. Allen Robinson, WR – JAC
  3. Spencer Ware, RB – KC
  4. Devante Adams, WR – GB
  5. Greg Olsen, TE – CAR
  6. Ty Montgomery, RB – GB
  7. Tyreek Hill, WR – KC
  8. Michael Crabtree, WR – OAK
  9. C. J. Anderson, RB – DEN
  10. Jarvis Landry, WR – MIA

Player I love – Michael Crabtree: When Crabtree was drafted with the 10th overall pick, there was little question surrounding his talent. Instead, he struggled out of the gates and eventually fell from favor in San Fransisco, leading him to his current home in Oakland. Since he’s been catching passes from Carr, Crabtree has finished as WR19 and WR11 and compiled a very nice stat line, yet he’s still being drafted far below his value. I won’t suggest he’ll finish as a WR1 but he’ll finish close.

Player I Hate – Ty Montgomery: This one is mind blowing to me as Montgomery wasn’t even very effective last year as a lead back, yet this year he finds himself being drafted as high as the 20th back off the board. I’ll say it now, there’s zero percent chance he finishes as a RB2, and even as a flex play he’s difficult to praise because his usage will likely be spotty and unpredictable. I won’t have Montgomery on a single team this year.