Category Archives: Rankings

The ADP Game: Rounds 16-20

With the NFL season creeping ever closer, we’ll examine current consensus ADP data provided by Fantasypros.com to discuss the players we love and the players we hate based on where they’re being drafted. 

Round 16

  1. Carolina Panthers DST
  2. Darren Sproles
  3. John Ross
  4. Mason Crosby
  5. Graham Gano
  6. Carson Palmer
  7. Joe Williams
  8. Zay Jones
  9. Taylor Gabriel
  10. Coby Fleener

Player I Love – Zay Jones: Maybe it’s low hanging fruit, but with Sammy Watkins gone and Jordan Matthews nursing a broken sternum, Jones has a very real chance to start the year as the top WR by default. While I doubt he’ll have enough work to be a top 20 WR, he’ll far out perform his late draft position.

Player I Hate – Coby Fleener: The hype should have died a long time ago, but Fleener found himself in the enviable position of catching passes from Drew Brees and fantasy fan boys were salivating. Sadly Fleener was NOT the second coming of Jimmy Graham, and all he offers is the occasional big week when he catches a touch down. The TE position has great depth and Fleener just isn’t that good.

Round 17

  1. Cole Beasley
  2. Tyler Lockett
  3. Cairo Santos
  4. Jonathan Williams
  5. Austin Hooper
  6. Steven Hauschka
  7. Adam Vinatieri
  8. Kenny Golladay
  9. Sebastian Janikowski
  10. Julius Thomas

Player I Love – Cole Beasley: Do you think he’ll lead the Dallas passing attack in targets and catches again? Me either, but let’s be honest; he’s being drafted in the 17th round! As the second option in that offense, Beasley should be inline for another 70 or so catches, giving him big time PPR value.

Player I Hate – All the Kickers in this round: Okay, it’s a cop out, but I like all of the skill position players in this round and I hate taking kickers early. That being said, this late in drafts there’s very little downside to grabbing a high value player even if it IS a kicker, but I’d rather one of the other guys.

Round 18

  1. Cameron Brate
  2. Giovani Bernard
  3. Josh Doctson
  4. Baltimore Ravens
  5. Rex Burkhead
  6. J.J. Nelson
  7. Los Angeles Rams DST
  8. Will Lutz
  9. Pittsburgh Steelers DST
  10. Jared Cook

Player I Love – Rex Burkhead: The news that Mike Gillislee is “100%” is a bit disconcerting, but the bottom line is Burkhead has looked fantastic in what work he’s gotten and Gillislee hasn’t played yet. Sure, drafting a Patriots back is a nerve racking activity, but there’s relatively low risk and Burkhead could pay off in spades.

Player I Hate: J.J. Nelson: Either you believe John Brown is the next big receiver in Arizona or you don’t but there isn’t likely enough passes to go around in an offense that is unequivocally David Johnson’s to justify rostering Nelson. Sure, keep an eye on him should Brown stumble or the aging Fitzgerald get hurt, but there are a number of high upside players available behind him that should be a priority.

Round 19

  1. Kevin White
  2. Marlon Mack
  3. Dion Lewis
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars DST
  5. Deshaun Watson
  6. Robby Anderson
  7. Chalder Catanzaro
  8. Mohamed Sanu
  9. Antonio Gates
  10. Evan Engram

Player I love – Marlon Mack: I’ve tried predicting the demise of Frank Gore in the past, and maybe I just like when he proves me wrong, but at some point he has to break down and with Luck potentially missing time, the workload could prove to be too much. That’s where Marlon Mack comes in – he’ll likely get some work early even with Gore on the field, but it’s only a matter of time before the job is his.

Player I hate – Dion Lewis: Does Lewis even make the team in New England? Who knows, but with additions to the backfield and the return of the now-paid James White mean there’s not much room for Lewis to run. Last year he was a trendy pick to lead the mid-round backs, but this year he’s a cautionary tale of when to read the tea leaves.

Round 20

  1. Philadelphia Eagles DST
  2. Chris Boswell
  3. D’Onta Foreman
  4. Cooper Kupp
  5. Blake Bortles
  6. Joe Flacco
  7. Matt Prater
  8. Kenny Stills
  9. Atlanta Falcons DST
  10. Alex Smith

Player I love – Joe Flacco: The Ravens have been taking a cautious approach to returning Flacco to the field, but sooner or later they’re going to need him playing football if they want to win games. With new pass catchers in Danny Woodhead and Jeremy Maclin, not to mention a fairly easy fantasy schedule, Flacco could be see this year return him to fantasy relevance.

Player I Hate – Cooper Kupp: When Sammy Watkins was traded to the Rams, Kupp’s sleeper status took a nose dive. Now the number 3 receiver at best, and expected to miss time, Kupp should be a waiver pick up at best, and even then it’s likely for a spot start.

 

 

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The ADP Game: Rounds 6-10

With the NFL season creeping ever closer, we’ll examine current consensus ADP data provided by Fantasypros.com to discuss the players we love and the players we hate based on where they’re being drafted. 

Round 6

  1. Mark Ingram, RB – NO
  2. Jordan Reed, TE – WAS
  3. Sammy Watkins, WR – LAR
  4. Julian Edelman, WR – NE
  5. Jimmy Graham, TE – SEA
  6. Kelvin Benjamin, WR – CAR
  7. Martavis Bryant, WR – PIT
  8. Golden Tate, WR – DET
  9. Russell Wilson, QB – SEA
  10. Mike Gillislee, RB – NE

Player I love – Golden Tate: After a rough stretch to start the season, Tate followed up the bye week by catching at least 5 catches over the final 6 weeks to finish just shy of 1,000 yards. In PPR leagues especially, his value is rock solid late in the 6th round.

Player I Hate – Martavis Bryant: A few years ago, Bryant flashed big play ability to grow into the kind of unsustainable hype machine that burns fantasy teams who over-commit to lack of performance. While the skill is certainly there, Bryant has yet to prove he’ll stay clear of discipline long enough to reward fantasy owners. With the names going after him I’m passing entirely in the 6th round.

Round 7

  1. Tevin Coleman, RB – ATL
  2. Larry Fitzgerald, WR – ARI
  3. Andrew Luck, QB – IND
  4. LeGarrette Blount, RB – PHI
  5. Tyler Eifert, TE – CIN
  6. Brandon Marshall, WR – NYG
  7. Bilal Powell, RB – NYJ
  8. Ameer Abdullah, RB – DET
  9. Emmanuel Sanders, WR – DEN
  10. Adrian Peterson, RB – NO

Player I love – Tyler Eifert: All Eifert does is catch touchdowns, to the tune of 18 over his last 21 games. Finally healthy, Eifert should continue to grow in the Bengals offense, and it feels comfortable to extrapolate the second half of last season to predict 750 yards and 10TDs.

Player I Hate – Bilal Powell: Don’t get me wrong, I was on the Powell train earlier in the off season too, but the buzz got too big and now he’s being drafted before starters like Perkins, Abdullah, Gore, and Martin… which feels far too early for me. He’ll have some decent games but the Jets are going to be bad this year and to commit to Powell in the 7th round is foolish.

Round 8

  1. Stefon Diggs – WR – MIN
  2. Jameis Winston, QB – TB
  3. Frank Gore, RB – IND
  4. Delanie Walker, TE – TEN
  5. Cam Newton, QB – CAR
  6. Derek Carr, QB – OAK
  7. Doug Martin, RB – TB
  8. Paul Perkins, RB – NYG
  9. Eddie Lacy, RB – SEA
  10. Kirk Cousins, QB – WAS

Player I love – Doug Martin: It’s likely that if Martin wasn’t facing a suspension, he’d be going in the first 3 rounds of drafts, but thanks to his absence, the Muscle Hamster has fallen to the round 8 range. His offseason performances have me leaning towards bounce back year with a RB1 ceiling in the weeks following his return, which is a steal in the 8th round or later.

Player I hate – Eddie Lacy: What seemed like a match made in heaven for Lacy and the Seahawks has turned into a situation that has fans wondering if he’ll even make the team. Thomas Rawls has been announced as the starter and we all know C.J. Prosise is a lock for third downs, leaving slim pickings for the anything-but-slim back. Sure, Lacy may start by default if Rawls can’t stay healthy, but it doesn’t bode well for confidence if you decide to take a chance on the former Packer.

Round 9

  1. Willie Snead, WR – NO
  2. Marcus Mariota, QB – TEN
  3. Kyle Rudolph, TE – MIN
  4. Jamison Crowder, WR – WAS
  5. Danny Woodhead, RB – BAL
  6. Derrick Henry, RB – TEN
  7. Matellus Bennett, TE – GB
  8. DeSean Jackson, WR – TB
  9. Robert Kelley, RB – WAS
  10. Donte Moncrief, WR – IND

Player I Love – DeSean Jackson: It’s no secret that I’ve been targeting Jackson since the day he signed in Tampa. A burner with elite speed, he’ll slot in on day one as the 2nd WR opposite Mike Evans. If you think he had room to run last year when he had 1,000 yards and average nearly 18 yards per catch, just imagine the room he’ll have with Evans drawing doubles and Winston’s cannon of an arm leading him down field. Consistency will likely be lacking since he won’t top the team in targets but in the 9th he’ll be fantastic value.

Player I Hate – Donte Moncrief: This isn’t to say that I think Moncrief is a bad player, but the situation in Indy is looking worse by the week and while T.Y. Hilton will still find his fair share of targets, Moncrief could be in fantasy trouble if Scott Tolzien is handling the football. If Moncrief falls a few rounds I may consider him, but in this position I’d go with any number of receivers over him.

Round 10

  1. Randall Cobb, WR – GB
  2. Eric Decker, WR – TEN
  3. Dak Prescott, QB – DAL
  4. Ben Roethlisberger, QB – PIT
  5. Pierre Garcon, WR – SF
  6. Kareem Hunt, RB – KC
  7. Zach Ertz, TE – PHI
  8. Jonathan Stewart, RB – CAR
  9. Jeremy Maclin, WR – BAL
  10. Terrance West, RB – BAL

Player I love – Eric Decker: After the drama surrounding Decker when he was cut with New York it seemed he may be destined for the veteran run around as he looked for a landing spot. Now he’s in Tennessee and the rumors are that he’s Mariota’s new favorite weapon and he’s been looking his way in the red zone an awful lot. Decker could be a massive value at his current ADP.

Player I Hate – Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben will still win a lot of games this year, and he does have Antonio Brown to throw to, but these things may convince you that he’s an elite fantasy QB when in reality that ship has sailed. This team is going rely on Le’Veon Bell more than ever and while Roethlisberg will be serviceable, he’s less valuable than he’s ever been.

The ADP Game: Rounds 1-5

With the NFL season creeping ever closer, we’ll examine current consensus ADP data provided by Fantasypros.com to discuss the players we love and the players we hate based on where they’re being drafted. 

Round 1

  1. David Johnson, RB – ARI
  2. Le’Veon Bell, RB – PIT
  3. Antonio Brown, WR – PIT
  4. Julio Jones, WR – ATL
  5. LeSean McCoy, RB – BUF
  6. Odell Beckham Jr., WR – NYG
  7. Mike Evans, WR – TB
  8. Devonta Freeman, RB – ATL
  9. Melvin Gordon, RB – LAC
  10. A.J. Green, WR – CIN

Player I love – Mike Evans: It’s the first round so you can’t really complain about Evans being ranked as the 4th best WR, but the fact is he was better than anyone NOT named Antonio Brown on a per game basis and finished as the #1 WR in overall points in 2016. At 24 years old and the undisputed #1 weapon in an improving offense, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish on top of the WR pool.

Player I hate – Melvin Gordon: Gordon’s career so far has been polarizing to say the least. After not recording a TD in over 200 touches as a rookie, Gordon returned the investments of his faithful by finding pay dirt 10 times. Still, he finished with less than a 1,000 yards and a sub 4 YPC mark that doesn’t exactly instill confidence that he’ll return as a RB1. Being drafted as the 5th RB is far too rich for my blood.

Round 2

  1. DeMarco Murray, RB – TEN
  2. Jordy Nelson, WR – GB
  3. Jordan Howard, RB – CHI
  4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB – DAL
  5. Jay Ajayi, RB – MIA
  6. Michael Thomas, WR – NO
  7. Aaron Rodgers, QB – GB
  8. Dez Bryant, WR – DAL
  9. Todd Gurley, RB – LAR
  10. Rob Gronkowski, TE – NE

Player I love – Todd Gurley: On the flip side of the Melvin Gordon coin is Todd Gurley. After an abysmal season Gurley has fallen down draft boards to the end of the 2nd round, but this isn’t like Trent Richardson or other flash-in-the-pan backs of the last 10 years. Gurley is the real deal, and the Rams offense looks like it’s improved dramatically in the off season thanks to free agent signings and trades. As the 10th back off the board, I’m more than comfortable with Gurley as my #1.

Player I hate – Jay Ajayi: The skills are there to be a very good NFL back, but the shine from three 200 yard rushing performances has blinded his fans from the fact that he just wasn’t that great in the rest of his games. Check out this article at Fantasypros that shows how often Ajayi finished as a top 20 back (TL:DR folks… it’s not enough to justify the 15th over all pick).

Round 3

  1. Leonard Fournette, RB – JAC
  2. T.Y Hilton, WR – IND
  3. Tom Brady, QB – NE
  4. Amari Cooper, WR – OAK
  5. Marshawn Lynch, RB – OAK
  6. Lamar Miller, RB – HOU
  7. Doug Baldwin. WR – SEA
  8. Brandin Cooks, WR – NE
  9. Isaiah Crowell, RB – CLE
  10. Christian McCaffrey, RB – CAR

Player I love – Doug Baldwin: He’s not a sexy name but he’s a machine that hauls in just about everything thrown his way. Last year he finished with 94 catches for 1100 yards and a top 10 WR finish in standard leagues, and that’s with the first half issues at QB. Especially in PPR leagues, Baldwin is a lock for about 100 receptions and 1,100 yards again.

Player I Hate – Amari Cooper: Just to clarify, I don’t hate the player in general, but he’s still being drafted based on hype rather than statistics. While it’s fair to assume that he’ll eventually overtake Michael Crabtree as the more productive Oakland receiver, I still won’t spend a 3rd round pick on the teams 2nd best receiver over the past two seasons.

Round 4

  1. DeAndre Hopkins, WR – HOU
  2. Drew Brees, QB – NO
  3. Demaryius Thomas, WR – DEN
  4. Terrelle Pryor, WR – WAS
  5. Joe Mixon, RB – CIN
  6. Alshon Jeffery, WR – PHI
  7. Travis Kelce, TE – KC
  8. Carlos Hyde, RB – SF
  9. Dalvin Cook, RB – MIN
  10. Matt Ryan, QB – ATL

Player I love – Carlos Hyde: Hyde, on a per game basis, finished as the RB10 despite San Fransisco’s abysmal offense last year. This year, the needle is pointing up (ever so slightly) with the addition of high flying Kyle Shanahan to the offense. Don’t buy into the buzz that Hyde isn’t his guy; he’s the most talented back on this roster and will push for RB10 again this year.

Player I hate – Terrelle Pryor: I mean… it’s a fun story that Pryor has resurrected what looked like a lousy career by switching to WR but going from Cleveland where he was targeted 140 times to Washington where he’ll split looks with Doctson, Crowder, and Reed doesn’t really scream “better”. He’ll be good, but he won’t be round 4 good.

Round 5

  1. Keenan Allen, WR – LAC
  2. Allen Robinson, WR – JAC
  3. Spencer Ware, RB – KC
  4. Devante Adams, WR – GB
  5. Greg Olsen, TE – CAR
  6. Ty Montgomery, RB – GB
  7. Tyreek Hill, WR – KC
  8. Michael Crabtree, WR – OAK
  9. C. J. Anderson, RB – DEN
  10. Jarvis Landry, WR – MIA

Player I love – Michael Crabtree: When Crabtree was drafted with the 10th overall pick, there was little question surrounding his talent. Instead, he struggled out of the gates and eventually fell from favor in San Fransisco, leading him to his current home in Oakland. Since he’s been catching passes from Carr, Crabtree has finished as WR19 and WR11 and compiled a very nice stat line, yet he’s still being drafted far below his value. I won’t suggest he’ll finish as a WR1 but he’ll finish close.

Player I Hate – Ty Montgomery: This one is mind blowing to me as Montgomery wasn’t even very effective last year as a lead back, yet this year he finds himself being drafted as high as the 20th back off the board. I’ll say it now, there’s zero percent chance he finishes as a RB2, and even as a flex play he’s difficult to praise because his usage will likely be spotty and unpredictable. I won’t have Montgomery on a single team this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WR Review

Over the next few days, we here at Dr. Fantasy will take a closer look at each skill position and where the best value is as you prepare for your drafts. 
evans

The wide receiver position features unparalleled depth this year, and despite the relative safety of the position thanks to the new NFL and how teams tend to spend more time passing these days, there are still pitfalls in each tier that need navigation to draft effectively.

Elite Tier (1)

  • Antonio Brown  – Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons
  • Mike Evans – Tampa Bay
  • Odell Beckham Jr. – New York Giants
  • A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals

There are few surprises in the Top tier so we won’t spend too much time dissecting these picks. Despite his obvious skill, OBJ in the first  round requires a bit of caution with the red zone addition of Brandon Marshall. The aging Eli Manning is as volatile a QB as there is in the league and while I fully expect fantastic numbers from Beckham Jr, I would not be surprised if he has a few weeks where he disappears, which could be an issue for a top 5 pick.

Very Good Tier (2)

  • Jordy Nelson – Green Bay Packers
  • Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints
  • Amari Cooper – Oakland Raiders
  • Doug Baldwin – Seattle Seahawks
  • T. Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts
  • Dez Bryant – Dallas Cowboys
  • Alshon Jeffrey – Philadelphia Eagles
  • Brandin Cooks – New England Patriots
  • Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars

If you miss on one of the elite guys, there’s several fantastic options in this group. Expect to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick to grab one though. Dez Bryant could be the biggest problem child of the bunch, though, with the difficulty surrounding his early season schedule. He faces a murders row of elite DB’s and while he’ll very likely put up decent numbers, Prescott may be forced to look elsewhere to move the chains. On the other side of the coin is Brandin Cooks who’s stock began rising the moment he became a Patriots. Despite the number of mouths to feed it’s evident through joint practices that Brady is interested in using his new weapon to the fullest of his ability.

Decent Tier (3)

  • DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans
  • Sammy Watkins – Los Angeles Rams
  • Demaryius Thomas – Denver Broncos
  • Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
  • Michael Crabtree – Oakland Raiders
  • Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers
  • Golden Tate – Detroit Lions
  • Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs
  • Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals
  • Terrelle Pryor – Washington Redskins
  • Kelvin Benjamin – Carolina Panthers
  • Stefon Diggs – Minnesotta Vikings
  • Jarvis Landry – Miami Dolphins
  • Julien Edelman – New England Patriots
  • Emmanuel Sanders – Denver Broncos

At the top of the Third Tier are our stud wideouts who drop on boards thanks to poor quarterback play or significant injury history. Michael Crabtree may fall several picks behind Amari Cooper in Oakland, but his rapport with Derek Carr is undeniable and should lead him to another WR15 season. Terrelle Pryor seems to be continually overrated; not because he’s lacking in skill but because he’s leaving an offense where he was the only weapon and joining a Washington team that has many. He’ll likely disappoint if you select him as a WR2 as he’s more suited to the WR3/4 role.

Make a Prayer Tier (4)

  • Martavis Bryant – Pittsburgh Steelers
  • DeSean Jackson – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Jamison Crowder – Washington Redskins
  • Willie Snead – New Orleans Saints
  • Eric Decker – Tennessee Titans
  • Jordan Matthews – Buffalo Bills
  • Pierre Garcon – San Francisco 49ers
  • Donte Moncreif – Indianapolis Colts
  • Devante Parker – Miami Dolphins
  • Cameron Meredith – Chicago Bears
  • Kenny Britt – Cleveland
  • Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers
  • Corey Davis – Tennessee Titans
  • Rishard Matthews – Tennessee Titans
  • Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings

Undeniably there are several fantastic athletes in this tier but either quarterback situations or log jammed wide receiver charts mean that you’re taking a bit of a risk by drafting these guys in the first 7 rounds. Eric Decker has been the subject of a lot of fantasy talk as he continues to  recover from off season surgery but the talk out of Tennessee is that Mariota and Decker have shown an immediate chemistry and Decker could emerge from the preseason as his #1 target. Donte Moncrief on the other hand is firmly in my “do not draft” list thanks to the ongoing saga in Indianapolis. At this point, even if Luck does play in the first four weeks, the lack of practice prior to the season means Moncrief fails to live up to his expectations yet again.

Frequent Flier Tier (5)

  • Corey Coleman – Cleveland Browns
  • Jeremy Maclin – Baltimore Ravens
  • John Brown – Arizona Cardinals
  • Mike Wallace – Baltimore Ravens
  • Marvin Jones – Detroit Lions
  • Josh Doctson – Washington Redskins
  • Kevin White – Chicago Bears
  • Sterling Shepard – New York Giants
  • Mike Williams – Los Angeles Chargers
  • Robby Anderson – New York Jets
  • John Ross – Cincinnati Bengals
  • Robert Woods – Los Angeles Rams
  • Taylor Gabriel – Atlanta Falcons
  • Kenny Stills – Miami Dolphins
  • Tyrell Williams – Los Angeles Chargers

While I’m well aware that we may disagree on the ranks of some of these bottom tier guys, the truth is that there’s plenty of upside for each of them, even if it’s far fetched to expect most of them to reach those expectations. Josh Doctson has been a pre-season darling in Washington yet the arrival or Pryor has completely taken the wind out of the sails coming into the season – expect a great value. It’s hard to bump Sterling Shepard too far down my list because the skill is there, but the Giants are OBJ’s team first and Brandon Marshall is going to eat up touches inside the 20 severely limiting Shepards upside in re-draft leagues.

As with any rankings list, I beg you to do your own research. Much of what builds my opinions are the observations of people close to the teams, and as always information available before the season is often times skewed to the positive. Don’t be discouraged if your rankings don’t look like the experts and have fun drafting!

 

RB Review

Over the next few days, we here at Dr. Fantasy will take a closer look at each skill position and where the best value is as you prepare for your drafts. 

leveon

While the classic RB / RB draft strategy has long since gone the way of the dodo, this year is a perfect example of how snagging an elite back early will save you headaches down the road as the questions surrounding the mid tier backs all come with some concern. (these tiers are mostly applicable for re-draft leagues so don’t freak when you see a suspended player far below their actual value)

Elite Tier (1)

  • David Johnson – Arizona Cardinals
  • Le’Veon Bell – Pittsburgh Steelers
  • LeSean McCoy – Buffalo Bills

The role of three down back in the NFL has become increasingly rare, and these three guys will be called upon to lead their respective teams on both the ground and through the air. While standard scoring formats may close the gap, these three guys should be the first three RB’s picked.

Very Good Tier (2)

  • Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons
  • Jordan Howard – Chicago Bears
  • Melvin Gordon – Los Angeles Chargers
  • DeMarco Murray – Tennessee Titans
  • Todd Gurley – Los Angeles Rams
  • Jay Ajayi – Miami Dolphins

Any one of these guys could elevate their game to Elite status but a few questions remain for each of them. Most of them suffer from a lack of sample size. I’d bet Todd Gurley falls in drafts this year due to his dismal 2016 campaign and I’d argue he may be the best value in the rounds 3-5 depending on your league. Jay Ajayi on the other hand is riding high on the back of his 2016 statistics despite the evidence that he’s a boom or bust player who’s three 200 yard games masked lengthy stretches of inefficiency.

Decent Tier (3)

  • Leonard Fournette – Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys
  • Lamar Miller – Houston Texans
  • Isaiah Crowell – Cleveland Browns
  • Carlos Hyde – San Fransisco 49ers
  • Christian McCaffrey – Carolina Panthers
  • Marshawn Lynch – Oakland Raiders
  • Spencer Ware – Kansas City
  • Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals
  • C.J. Anderson – Denver Broncos
  • Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints
  • Dalvin Cook – Minnesotta Vikings
  • Tevin Coleman – Atlanta Falcons
  • Eddie Lacy – Seattle Seahawks

While you may not enjoy drafting in this tier, the fact remains that getting the guy who’ll dominate touches is never a bad thing. Even for rookies like Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook the question is only how effective will they be with the ball because they were drafted to be workhorses. Ezekiel Elliott certainly an elite talent in this league, but he’s slated to miss 6 games due to suspension and with the bye week coming in week 6, Elliott won’t suit up until week 8 effectively costing you 50% of the fantasy season – in re-draft leagues I don’t touch Elliott until round 4 or later (assuming he’s there at all)

Make a Prayer Tier (4)

  • Frank Gore – Indianapolis Colts
  • Ameer Abdullah – Detroit Lions
  • Bilal Powell – New York Jets
  • Paul Perkins – New York Giants
  • Ty Montgomery – Green Bay Packers
  • Doug Martin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • LeGarrette Blount – Philadelphia Eagles
  • Theo Riddick – Detroit Lions
  • Danny Woodhead – Baltimore Ravens
  • Samaje Perine – Washington Redskins
  • Terrence West – Baltimore Ravens
  • Adrian Peterson – New Orleans Saints
  • Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots
  • Robert Kelley – Washington Redskins
  • Matt Forte – New York Jets
  • Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans

Here is your reward for drafting with a ZeroRB strategy… a combination of backs from this tier. I’m not hitching my wagon to any of these players as a RB2 yet you’ll likely see at least one or two teams you draft with end up here. Sure, if you ignore injury histories, Ameer Abdullah and Danny Woodhead offer fantastic value as odds on favorites to contribute significantly (albeit in very different ways) to their offenses. But the questions surrounding backs like Ty Montgomery who had only two games with 15 touches, are enough to force me into drafting backs early.

Worth a Flyer

  • Duke Johnson Jr – Cleveland Browns
  • C.J. Prosise – Seattle Seahawks
  • James White – New England Patriots
  • Jeremy Hill – Cincinatti Bengals
  • Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers
  • Jamaal Williams – Green Bay Packers
  • Kareem Hunt – Kansas City Chiefs
  • Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints
  • Joe Williams – San Fransisco 49ers
  • Jamaal Charles – Denver Broncos
  • Rex Burkhead – New England Patriot

If you do wait on backs, there’s several in this tier who offer fantastic upside at a very low cost. Jamaal Williams will have every chance to steal the job from Ty Montgomery this off season, and if the Packers value his pass blocking skills (which in that offense I can’t see how they won’t) I could see Williams stealing significant time share in that backfield. Rex Burkhead is another intriguing back that can be had at the end of drafts as he’s closing in on Mike Gillislee for early down work due to the later’s inability to get on the field. James white will dominate 3rd downs so it’s a committee to watch going into the season.

While some will argue that there is great value in loading up on WR’s early in the draft, I’d say it’s just the opposite after reviewing the RB tiers. There’s questions swirling in each tier beyond the top and I’d argue grabbing your favorite low risk RB as early as you dare.

QB Review –

Over the next few days, we here at Dr. Fantasy will take a closer look at each skill position and where the best value is as you prepare for your drafts. 
brady4

While plenty of fantasy teams featuring an early QB selection as their starter have gone on to win their leagues, there are more borderline great QB’s available in the middle rounds than ever. Waiting on a QB has never made so much sense as the tiers below will show you.

Elite Tier (1) 

  • Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers
  • Tom Brady – New England Patriots
  • Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints

The only question surrounding these three QB’s is where to take them. Rodgers will inevitably go early (round 2) but even Brady and Brees could see selections in the first 40 picks. Waiting even for these guys only makes sense.

Very Good Tier (2)

  • Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons
  • Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks
  • Kirk Cousins – Washington Redskins
  • Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Marcus Mariota – Tennessee Titans
  • Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers

Can Matt Ryan duplicate his 2016 season? I doubt it but he’ll still be very effective with those weapons. Cam Newton scares the hell out of me looking at 2017 as his corp of wide receivers didn’t really improve while the team drafted backs to help ease the pressure of running the football. If Newton finishes as a top 10 QB I’d be surprised.

Decent Tier (3)

  • Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys
  • Derek Carr – Oakland Raiders
  • Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts
  • Philip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers
  • Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions
  • Tyrod Taylor – Buffalo Bills
  • Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals
  • Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Eli Manning – New York Giants
  • Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles

This is the money maker tier for quarterbacks as most of them can be had in rounds 8 or later. The top of this tier are borderline Tier 2 guys so draft with confidence. The bottom, most importantly Ben Roethlisberger should be viewed as a lower end QB2 as injuries are sure to take a tole on the aging QB. Carson Wentz has a real chance to make a leap this year but Philadelphia figures to continue it’s balanced attack with Blount in the fold. He offers a modest ceiling with a pretty high floor.

Make a Prayer Tier (4)

  • Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens
  • Carson Palmer – Arizona Cardinals
  • Sam Bradford – Minnesota Vikings
  • Alex Smith – Kansas City Chiefs
  • Jay Cutler – Miami Dolphins
  • Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams

Uninspiring? Sure. Cost you much? No. These guys are the back end of your draft, either as an insurance policy on an aging QB or as streaming option for the more adventurous owners. Joe Flacco’s schedule and enhanced weapons (Woodhead+Maclin > Smith+Pitta) make him a really safe streaming option. Jay Cutler may be fine in an offense he’s familiar with, but the gunslinger is being asked to QB a team that’s very likely to run the football a lot, so don’t over draft the un-retired QB hoping for some kind of magic.

Worth a Flyer Tier (5)

  •  Blake Bortles – Jacksonville Jaguars
  • DeShaun Watson – Houston Texans
  • Mike Glennon – Chicago Bears
  • DeShone Kizer – Cleveland Browns
  • Brock Osweiler – Cleveland Browns
  • Brian Hoyer – San Fransisco 49ers
  • Trevor Siemian – Denver Broncos
  • Josh McCown – New York Jets
  • Mitchell Trubisky – Chicago Bears
  • Chad Henne – Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Jimmy Garoppolo – New England Patriots

If you’re drafting one of these guys, then odds are you like em a heck of a lot more than I do. Bortles may lose his job to Chad Henne (who isn’t exactly draftable himself), Trevor Siemian couldn’t lose this job if he tried (and I argue that he has), and Trubisky and Garoppolo are future starters with either not enough weapons to work with or no road to starting in sight.

The age old adage “wait on a QB” is easy to preach this year with so many viable quarterbacking options in the middle rounds. If you do swing early on a Rodgers or Brady, don’t worry but just be aware of what your pick may cost you in the other positions.

UPDATED: Top 50 Running Backs

2017 Running Back Rankings

Updated June 27th, 2017

Not much changed in the top 10 with only minor changes coming as a result of some consistency research. I’ve added 10 more to the list to even out the rankings as a top 50. We’ll add more next time.

  1. David Johnson, ARI (E)
  2. Le’Veon Bell, PIT (E)
  3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (E)
  4. LeSean McCoy, BUF (E)
  5. Jordan Howard, CHI (+1)
  6. Devonta Freeman, ATL (-1)
  7. Melvin Gordon, LAC (+1)
  8. DeMarco Murray, TEN (-1)
  9. Jay Ajayi, MIA (E)
  10. Todd Gurley, LAR (E)
  11. Lamar Miller, HOU (E)
  12. Carlos Hyde, SF (E)
  13. Leonard Fournette, JAC (E)
  14. Marshawn Lynch, OAK (+1)
  15. Isaiah Crowell, CLE (-1)
  16. C.J. Anderson, DEN (+1)
  17. Spencer Ware, KC (+2)
  18. Christian McCaffrey, CAR (-2)
  19. Mark Ingram, NO (-1)
  20. Joe Mixon, CIN (+1)
  21. Ameer Abdullah, DET (+3)
  22. Eddie Lacy, SEA (-2)
  23. Frank Gore, IND (+2)
  24. Tevin Coleman, ATL (-2)
  25. Ty Montgomery, GB (-2)
  26. LeGarrette Blount, PHI (+2)
  27. Dalvin Cook, MIN (-1)
  28. Mike Gillislee, NE (-1)
  29. Paul Perkins, NYG (+1)
  30. Doug Martin, TB (+3)
  31. Robert Kelley, WAS (E)
  32. Bilal Powell, NYJ (-3)
  33. Samaje Perine, WAS (+2)
  34. Danny Woodhead, BAL (-2)
  35. Theo Riddick, DET (+2)
  36. Matt Forte, NYJ (+3)
  37. Adrian Peterson, NO (+3)
  38. Latavius Murray, MIN (-2)
  39. Duke Johnson, CLE (+5)
  40. Jonathan Stewart, CAR (-6)
  41. Jeremy Hill, CIN (+5)
  42. C.J. Prosise, SEA (-1)
  43. Jamaal Charles, DEN (+2)
  44. Kenneth Dixon, BAL (-2)
  45. Terrance West, BAL (+4)
  46. Derrick Henry, TEN (-8)
  47. Jamaal Williams, GB (+5)
  48. Kareem Hunt, KC (-5)
  49. James White, NE (+2)
  50. Ryan Mathews, PHI (+6)

UPDATE: QB Rankings

Updated 6/26 (numbers in parenthasis are change in ranking from 6/1 rankings)
  1. Aaron Rodgers, GB (E)
  2. Tom Brady, NE (E)
  3. Drew Brees, NO (E)
  4. Matt Ryan, ATL (E)
  5. Andrew Luck, IND (E)
  6. Jameis Winston, TB (E)
  7. Kirk Cousins, WAS (E)
  8. Dak Prescott, DAL (+1)
  9. Russell Wilson, SEA (-1)
  10. Cam Newton, CAR (E)
  11. Derek Carr, OAK (+1)
  12. Tyrod Taylor, BUF (-1)
  13. Marcus Mariotta, TEN (+2)
  14. Philip Rivers, LAC (E)
  15. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (-2)
  16. Matthew Stafford, DET (E)
  17. Andy Dalton, CIN (E)
  18. Carson Wentz, PHI (+3)
  19. Eli Manning, NYG (E)
  20. Blake Bortles, JAC (-2)
  21. Ryan Tannehill, MIA (-1)
  22. Joe Flacco, BAL (E)
  23. Sam Bradford, MIN (+2)
  24. Carson Palmer, ARI (-1)
  25. Alex Smith, KC (-1)
  26. Deshaun Watson, HOU (E)
  27. Mike Glennon, CHI (+1)
  28. Paxton Lynch, DEN (+1)
  29. DeShone Kizer, CLE (-2)
  30. Cody Kessler, CLE (E)
  31. Jared Goff, LAR (+1)
  32. Josh McCown, NYJ (-1)
  33. Christian Hackenberg, NYJ (+2)
  34. Brian Hoyer, SF (-1)
  35. Mitch Trubisky, CHI (+3)
  36. Tom Savage, HOU (E)
  37. Trevor Siemian, DEN (-3)
  38. Patrick Mahomes, KC (+3)
  39. Jimmy Garoppolo, NE (+8)
  40. Landry Jones, PIT (+4)
  41. C.J. Beathard, SF (-1)
  42. Cardale Jones, BUF (-3)
  43. AJ McCarron, CIN (E)
  44. Drew Stanton, ARI (+1)
  45. Case Keenum, MIN (+1)
  46. Brock Osweiler, CLE (-9)
  47. Bryce Petty, NYJ (-5)

2016 QB Rankings

  1. Cam Newton – Car
  2. Aaron Rodgers – GB
  3. Russell Wilson – Sea
  4. Drew Brees – NO
  5. Andrew Luck – Ind
  6. Ben Roethlisberger – Pit
  7. Carson Palmer – Ari
  8. Philip Rivers – SD
  9. Blake Bortles – Jac
  10. Tom Brady – NE*
  11. Derek Carr – Oak
  12. Tony Romo – Dal
  13. Eli Manning – NYG
  14. Andy Dalton – Cin
  15. Kirk Cousins – Was
  16. Tyrod Taylor – Buf
  17. Ryan Tannehill – Mia
  18. Matt Stafford – Det
  19. Jameis Winston – TB
  20. Marcus Mariota – Ten
  21. Matt Ryan – Atl
  22. Alex Smith – KC
  23. Brock Osweiler – Hou
  24. Teddy Bridgewater – Min
  25. Joe Flacco – Bal
  26. Ryan Fitzpatrick – NYJ
  27. Robert Griffin – Cle
  28. Jay Cutler – Chi
  29. Sam Bradford – Phi
  30. Jarod Goff – LA
  31. Colin Kaepernick – SF
  32. Mark Sanchez – Den
  33. Paxton Lynch – Den
  34. Blaine Gabbert – SF
  35. Josh McCown – Cle
  36. Case Keenum – LA
  37. Chase Daniels – Phi
  38. Carson Wentz – Phi
  39. Geno Smith – NYJ
  40. A.J. McCarron – Cin