Blog Archives

3 Potential Busts

It’s not always a skill issue, but every year there’s several players that turn into monumental busts. Having one of these guys eating up roster space halfway through the season is demoralizing, but sometimes unavoidable.

Thielen

Adam Thielen, WR – Minnesotta: It’s funny how fantasy football tends to have fairly predictable ebbs and flows, and after the monster for Thielen (92 catches for 1276 yards) the fantasy community has gone all in on the 27 year old. Currently ranked 11th at his position and 30th overall, I’d argue to exercise caution when selecting Thielen that early.

Between a new quarterback that seemed to favor the long ball (Kirk Cousins) and an OC in John DeFilippo that has shown a commitment to their down field targets (examples; Travis Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, Alshon Jeffrey) the expectation should be that regression is coming. Now, I’m not suggesting that Thielen falls completely off the map, but expect a far less consistent stat line. A more reasonable expectation would be roughly 1,000 yards and 5 TDs; similar to his 2016 numbers.

T.Y. Hilton, WR – Indianapolis: This one certainly feels like low hanging fruit, but Hilton continues to see an ADP of around 33, good for 13th among wide receivers. What’s disconcerting is that Hilton seems to have enough monster games each year to hide the fact that he’s more likely to bust than he is to boom.

With 9 weeks of 50 or fewer yards and 7 weeks with 30 or fewer, the reality is that Hilton is no better than a flex start. Regardless of how confident you may be at identifying when Hilton is set to go off, it’s still a waste of a pick in the fourth round when you can only reasonably rely on Hilton 25% of the time.

Aaron Rodgers, QB – Green Bay: I’d like to preface this portion of the article by saying I believe Rodgers, pound for pound, is still the best signal caller in the NFL. Still, at 34, and returning from a near-season ending injury, he’ll have the most difficult fantasy schedule among all QBs with 7 of his first 11 games coming against the top 10 stingiest defenses in terms of QB scoring.

While Jimmy Graham should help, there’s also a possibility that he’ll get off to a slow start and an aging Rodgers may resume running for his life. A healthy Aaron Rodgers is a valuable fantasy asset, no matter how you look at it, but in the 2nd rounds of drafts, there’s little chance he pays off in terms of the return on that investment.

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The ADP Game: Round 11-15

With the NFL season creeping ever closer, we’ll examine current consensus ADP data provided by Fantasypros.com to discuss the players we love and the players we hate based on where they’re being drafted. 

Round 11

  1. Theo Riddick, RB – DET
  2. Davante Parker, WR – MIA
  3. Cameron Meredith, WR – CHI
  4. Denver Broncos DST
  5. Matt Forte, RB – NYJ
  6. Hunter Henry, TE – LAC
  7. Samaje Perine, RB – WAS
  8. Stephon Gostkowski, K – NE
  9. Matt Stafford, QB – DET
  10. Kansas City Chiefs DST

Player I Love – Samaje Perine: Okay, so count me firmly seated on the Perine bandwagon, especially if his price stays in the 11th round. At this point, he’s far outperformed anyone else in the Washington backfield, and he’s looked pretty good at times. Even if Rob Kelley gets the start in week 1, it won’t be long before Perine is leading this backfield.

Player I Hate – Hunter Henry: I’m not drafting Henry any sooner than the last three or four rounds, and even then, only in dynasty or keeper formats. I know the buzz surrounding him is that he’s ready to break free from Antonio Gates’ shadow, but until Gates retires or leaves the Chargers, I’m not betting against him. It may be a 50/50 split between the 20’s (which leaves both with nominal value) but it will still be Gates in the red zone which limits Henry’s upside.

Round 12

  1. Latavius Murray, RB – MIN
  2. Corey Davis, WR – TEN
  3. Thomas Rawls, RB – SEA
  4. Justin Tucker, K – BAL
  5. Philip Rivers, QB – LAC
  6. Seattle Seahawks DST
  7. Darren McFadden, RB – DAL
  8. Houston Texans DST
  9. Corey Coleman, WR – CLE
  10. Tyrell Williams, WR – LAC

Player I love – Tyrell Williams: Yes, Keenan Allen is “healthy” and the Chargers drafted Mike Williams, but I’m not convinced either or both of those players will be healthy for any length of time. Allen is a time bomb and Williams is dealing with his own issues, and still Williams gets no love following a 1,000 yard season.

Player I Hate – Latavius Murray: It feels sacrilegious to say, but Murray’s done nothing for himself following the big payday he received in Minnesota to win that starting job. All Dalvin Cook has done has been impressive as a rookie, leading to doubts that Murray will find enough running room to be even

Round 13

  1. Kenny Britt, WR – CLE
  2. Rishard Matthews, WR – TEN
  3. John Brown, WR – ARI
  4. Matt Bryant, K – ATL
  5. Eric Ebron, TE – DET
  6. Arizona Cardinals DST
  7. Minnesota Vikings DST
  8. C.J. Prosise, RB – SEA
  9. Jack Doyle, TE – IND
  10. New England Patriots DST

Player I love – Kenny Britt: Britt slides into the Cleveland offense replacing the departing Terrelle Pryor and his 141 targets which could mean 70-80 receptions for the former Ram. If Britt maintains his career averages (or somewhere close to the 15 yards per catch) he should produce at least 1,000 yards. Target Britt all day in the 13th round.

Player I Hate – Eric Ebron: How long does a prospect get before the hype turns into hot air? Ebron is not a TE1, yet that’s exactly where he’s being drafted. Instead of leaping on Ebron, wait for a guy like Hooper, or Brate, or even Jason Witten in the later rounds.

Round 14

  1. Duke Johnson, RB – CLE
  2. Mike Wallace, WR – BAL
  3. James White, RB – NE
  4. Adam Thielen, WR – MIN
  5. Jeremy Hill, RB – CIN
  6. Eli Manning, QB – NYG
  7. Dan Bailey, K – DAL
  8. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB – TB
  9. O. J. Howard, TE – TB
  10. Marvin Jones, WR – DET

Player I love – Adam Thielen: Not much has changed in Minnesota besides the running game, and still Thielen and his nearly 1,000 yards is being drafted around the 150 mark. One of the best values in all of fantasy football this year, expect Thielen to at least match his numbers if not eclipse them all together.

Player I hate – Jeremy Hill: Joe Mixon is in town and impressive, and Gio Bernard should handle his fair share of passing downs leaving not much for the former early round pick to rely on. Sure, Mixon could stumble, but it seems the writing is on the wall for a player who doesn’t offer much upside at all.

Round 15

  1. Jamaal Charles, RB – DEN
  2. Jamaal Williams, RB – GB
  3. Jordan Matthews, WR – BUF
  4. Tyrod Taylor, QB – BUF
  5. Andy Dalton, QB – CIN
  6. New York Giants DST
  7. Sterling Shepard, WR – NYG
  8. Ted Ginn, WR – NO
  9. Carson Wentz, QB – PHI
  10. Jason Witten, TE – DAL

Player I love – Jamaal Williams: It still boggles my mind that an converted WR who played barely enough snaps to be considered a starting RB is being selected in the top 40 picks. Ty Montgomery is NOT the back of the future; Jamaal Williams is. Expect Williams to usurp the role pretty quickly as he’s shown an ability to block, which is important in an offense like Green Bay.

Player I Hate – Jamaal Charles: Sometimes a back hangs on too long, and it appears that this year could be the dud of a swan-song for the one time fantasy stud. If reports out of Denver are to be believed, Charles may not even make the team, much less give Anderson a run for his money at the top of the depth chart. Bookers injury clears space for Denver to keep him on the roster, but he won’t find his way onto mine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2017 Hidden Gems: WR

As futile as the exercise may seem this early, identifying sleeper candidates is one of the most important pieces of research you can embark upon. Below we’ll identify three leading candidates for you to keep an eye on before the preaseaon starts. 

ThielenAdam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings | ADP 106 – WR41 | Despite the efforts of the Vikings to bulk up the backfield after AP left for New Orleans, Sam Bradford was still bought and paid for in order to create some kind of passing game. Diggs is the obvious #1 but Thielen posted borderline WR2 numbers last year despite the turmoil on the field. Expect similar, if not better, for the third year receiver. Prediction: 1000 Receiving Yards, 4 TDs

 

Travis Benjamin – Los Angeles Chargers |ADP 170+ – WR96 | While Benjamin is likely only being drafted in the deepest formats, his WR96 ranking is criminal considering how likely it is that Keenan Allen misses time. Benjamin is progressing ahead of schedule on his own recovery and by all accounts Mike Williams is well behind the rest of the offense and may take time to mature in the NFL. Prediction: 800 Receiving Yards, 3 TDs

 

Cole Beasley – Dallas Cowboys | ADP 131 – WR57 | I’ve been on the Cole Beasley train as early as 2014, arguing his value and suggesting he was a better option than Terrence Williams. Still, even after his success, Beasely is being drafted as late as the 14th round as a 5th or 6th WR. In PPR formats he’s rises as his 75-80 receptions is in the top 25 of all WRs, but he’s incredibly underrated so late in drafts. Prediction: 80 Receptions, 925 Receiving Yards, 5 TDs

 

Honorable Mentions: Robert Woods, LAR (ADP 155), Josh Doctson, Was (ADP 140), Kamar Aiken, Ind (ADP 260)