Blog Archives

2017 Hidden Gems: RB

As futile as the exercise may seem this early, identifying sleeper candidates is one of the most important pieces of research you can embark upon. Below we’ll identify three leading candidates for you to keep an eye on before the preaseaon starts. 

Dawoodheadnny Woodhead – Baltimore Ravens | ADP 75 – RB28 | The running back situation in Baltimore has been in flux since the release of Ray Rice, and Woodhead looks to fill a void. While he can’t be relied upon for 250 rushes, the likelihood of 100 rushes and 75 receptions makes him an intriguing option, especially in PPR leagues. Prediction: 350 Rushing Yards, 750 Receiving yards, 6 total TDs

 

Doug Martin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP 105 – RB 36 | Reports out of Tampa regarding Martin are encouraging as he’s been seen in better shape and exhibiting better burst and speed in OTAs. While most take these reports with a grain of salt, Martin tends to be on the wrong side of the pre-season buzz, and he’s still the breadwinner in that backfield. Prediction: 1,000 Rushing Yards, 250 Receiving Yards, 8 Total TDs

 

Jamaal Williams – Green Bay Packers | ADP N/A – RB59 | This is a deep cut considering Williams isn’t being drafted enough in ESPN mock’s to show up in their ADP data, but Green Bay’s converted RB Ty Montgomery occupies a very specific slice of the offense leaving plenty of room for rookie RB Jamaal Williams to exist. While he’s unlikely to make a major impact early in the season, for dynasty and keeper leagues he’s worth a late round look. Prediction: 700 Total Yards, 6 Total TDs

 

Honorable Mention: Jamaal Charles, Den (ADP 116), Latavius Murray, Min (ADP 122), Chris Thompson, Was (ADP 170+)

2017 Hidden Gems: QB

As futile as the exercise may seem this early, identifying sleeper candidates is one of the most important pieces of research you can embark upon. Below we’ll identify three leading candidates for you to keep an eye on before the preaseaon starts. 

Eli Manning – New York Giants | ADP 127 – QB 16| manningManning had a down season last year finishing as the 19th best QB, but in true Giants fashion, this offseason was about bulking up his receiving corps by adding former Bear / Jet Brandon Marshall. With the backfield in flux, Manning is going to be asked to throw it and throw it a ton. Prediction: 4,600 yards – 33 TDs – 16 INT

 

Joe FlaccoBaltimore Ravens | ADP 179 – QB24 | I was vocal in my support of Joe Flacco from a sleeper perspective even before they added Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead to his cache of weapons. With a favorable schedule and the commitment of his front office, Flacco can be expected to approach career numbers. Prediction: 4,300 yards – 25 TDs – 11 INT

 

 Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles | ADP 128 – QB 18| Coming off the board in the 13th round, second year QB Carson Wentz already proved he can operate an NFL offense. Give him a bonafide #1 WR in Alshon Jefferey and a balanced running attack featuring bruiser LeGarette Blount, and Wentz is primed to take the leap. Prediction: 4,200 yards – 28 TDs – 13 INT

 

Honorable Mention: Sam Bradford, Min (ADP 170+)

Jeremy Maclin signs with Baltimore

It seems like I’ve been talking about the Baltimore Ravens an awful lot lately, and you’d not be wrong. This offseason has seen a ton of turnover on the Ravens roster, and to add a layer of complexity, they have signed ex-Eagles and Chiefs wide out Jeremy Maclin to a two year deal.Maclin

The signing comes a week after they cut receiving TE Dennis Pitta and Maclin figures to feature prominently in the passing attack.

Available Targets

If you’re wondering how much of an impact Maclin will make, it’s important to start by looking at vacated targets, something this team has a lot of.

Dennis Pitta: 121 Targets, Steve Smith: 101 Targets, Kamar Aiken: 50 Targets, Kyle Juszczyk, 49 Targets. That’s a total of 321 targets to players who no longer play for the Ravens.

While Joe Flacco is unlikely to repeat his 672 attempts, even around his career average of 526 attempts, that leaves significant room for Maclin to fill in (even with pass catching guru Danny Woodhead on the roster).

A conservative prediction would be in the 120 target range. Extrapolating Maclin’s career averages (which are fairly consistent) you’re looking at 75 catches for 950 yards and 5 TDs.

Expect his draft position to rise slightly, but as of right now (an ADP of the 12-14th round) he can be expected to far outproduce other assets selected in the same area of drafts. VERY worthy of a WR3 tag with upside to approach WR2 territory.

Ravens Cut Dennis Pitta

Tpittahe Baltimore Ravens have cut veteran TE Dennis Pitta after he left practice this week with what appears to be another hip injury.

For those fans who thought Pitta may improve on an impressive 86 catch season, you can scratch that. The question becomes who gets those receptions now? Right now, Benjamin Watson sits atop the Ravens TE depth chart, but the aging vet is a safe bet to miss time with injury, meaning the underwhelming Maxx Williams may be asked to live up to the loft expectations he had coming out of Minnesota.

Of course, with the rumblings that the Ravens are interested in adding a WR to the fold, those targets could be distributed in an entirely different way. If Jeremy Maclin or Eric Decker suddenly find themselfs in Baltimore there could be sleeper potential there as well.

Eric Decker To Be Cut By Jets

As Eric Decker continues to recover from hip and shoulder injuries that stole most of his 2016 season, news is coming out of New York that Woody Johnson is planning on cutting the veteran wideout before the end of the week. Of course, Qdeckeruincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson benefit the most by being bumped up the depth chart, but take that with a grain of salt as the Jets offense looks to be below average again.

What teams could use Decker?

I’m not reporting rumors of any kind, these speculations are made based on my own observations.

Baltimore Ravens – With the retirement of Steve Smith, the Ravens are left with a hole that they hope to fill with a healthy Breshard Perriman, but beyond he and the aging Mike Wallace, the Ravens could use a veteran presence like Decker.

Indianapolis Colts – T.Y. Hilton is fantastic, but the Colts have a lack of consistent talent after Moncrief failed to live up to the hype and Philip Dorsett continues to be non-existent. The Colts will need to score points and Decker’s size and skill fit the offensive mold in Indy.

Kansas City Chiefs – I fully expect the Chiefs to use Hill and Kelce as their two top targets, but the void left to Chris Conley may be better filled with a veteran presence. Of course it’ll likely come down to the contract as the Maclin cut seemed to be about the money. If he fits in the cap it wouldn’t hurt to have a deeper stable of wideouts.

Chicago Bears – The Bears look like they’ll be a mess and maybe that’ll disuade them from adding talent or from Decker considering them, but between Meredith and White there’s no garuntee that this team starts the season with an actual #1. Decker could fill that void.

Carolina Panthers – If you believe last year was an aberation and this team is still good enough to contend for a championship, then Decker would be a fantastic weapon to add to Newtons arsenal. Funchess, despite preseason buzz every year, has been a disappointment and the focus of defenses has shifted due to lack of talent beside Olsen and Benjamin (for the three weeks he’s healthy).

Los Angeles Rams – This is a team without a true number one. Tavon Austin is a fine little player, but lack of size and competition has this team a few weapons away from success. With it becoming more apparent that Goff will be under center come week one, the Rams would be smart to add weapons to help him succeed in the NFL.

Where do you think is the most likely landing spot for Decker? Is it one of the teams above or does he end up a surprise signing for a contender looking to put them over the top? Let us know in the comments!

 

Worth a Flyer: Joe Flacco Edition

After reading an ESPN article about how The Ravens are the Biggest Nightmare in Fantasy FootballI found myself quietly wondering if this perception surrounding the Baltimore offense is warranted or if Joe Flacco may be flying under the radar just in time for a triumphant bounce back season.

In 2016 Flacco finished as the 18th best fantasy QB according to ESPN standard scoring; hardly a world beater, averaging 13.6 points per week. With no significant editions outside of PPR darling Danny Woodhead, and the loss of Steve Smith to retirment, it’s easy to see why fantasy pundits would knock the gunslinger down a few spots.

To that I say, hold your horses!

To start the season, Flacco was dismal. Throwing for 1837 yards (262 average) with 5 TD and 6 INT, it looked like the season would be a write off.

Queue the bye week.

When he returned Flacco was a different QB. Over the final 9 games, Flacco threw for 2480 yards (275 per game average) and a much better 15 TD / 9 INT split. It’s important to note that these numbers came inspite of the competition (the Ravens played the Bengals twice, and the Pats, Cowboys, and Steelers once each).

Looking forward, this team is going to miss the presence of Steve Smith, but by all accounts Brashard Perriman is looking ready to take that next step and should suppliment the Mike Wallace/Dennis Pitta duo just fine. With Woodhead in the fold, and a more defined role for Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon, I expect a more efficient offense for the Ravens and a better TD% for Flacco than the awful 2.9 he posted last year (inspite of the yards totals).

It’s up for debate whether you believe in Strength of Schedule data, but it’s worth noting that the Ravens are listed with the 7th most favorable fantasy schedule for QB’s. When you start doing the math, it’s easy to see how Flacco (QB25 with an ADP of 176) could be a fantastic return on investment in 2017.

Team Rankings 23-13

Our previous exercise continues as we look at our teams in the middle. You may not agree with all of my rankings, but each of these teams pair good to great fantasy options with other question marks on offense.

23. Kansas City Chiefs

I know what you’re thinking, “they have Jamaal Charles!” That alone does not elevate this team higher on my list. Alex Smith is a fine game manager, but his deep ball is lacking and if the numbers from the WR’s last season indicate anything, this team doesn’t have a lick of consistency. Jeremy Maclin is an upgrade over Dwayne Bowe, but even this is speculative as Maclin could be the next WR to disappear from relevance. Travis Kelce has elite talent but had several brutal weeks to go with his successful ones. Worth drafting: Jamaal Charles is going to go in the first round, for good reason, but to expect 16 healthy games is unrealistic, Knile Davis is a fine handcuff. Travis Kelce finished near the top of TE’s but had some really bad weeks; draft with cautious optimism that he can be even better. Alex Smith is a QB2 or bench depth at best; he’ll never be a top 10 QB.

22. Oakland Raiders

Young, skilled, and unpredictable. This team could very well surprise and finish with several high profile fantasy heroes. Derek Carr showed flashes of brilliance last year, and the addition-by-subtraction move to let Darren McFadden go means the talented Latavius Murray will get the start in the backfield. Add Amari Cooper into the mix and you have the makings of a solid offensive team. Worth Drafting: Latavius Murray is a popular pick to elevate his game, especially after reports indicated they’ll be tailoring the offense to Murray’s strengths. Cooper will likely be valued a little high on draft day so you may be disappointed in year one. Carr showed he has what it takes to make it in the NFL, I expect him to elevate his game even more.

21. Minnesotta Vikings

There’s a lot of distraction with the Adrian Peterson saga still unfolding, but I’m operating under the assumption that he starts in week one for the Vikes. Even still, expect them to ease him back into the line up, lightening the load early. Teddy Bridgwater is in the same boat as Carr; a ton of talent but still has to prove how to use it. His WR’s are a bit of a question mark. Charles Johnson seems like he might be a breakout candidate, but Mike Wallace is an over the top receiver with little upside compared to his contemporaries. I’d love for Kyle Rudolph to bring it all together, as he has elite TE talent, but can’t stay on the field. Worth Drafting: Adrian Peterson could still be the AP of old, and many will bet that he is. At worst he’s still a RB1. Bridgewater has to do it with less weapons than the other youngsters in the league, so I figure he’ll struggle to find his stride early, but could suprise; a good upside QB 2 with no threat to his job. Maybe I just don’t like Mike Wallace, but I don’t think he’s as much of a difference maker going forward as I think they’ll look to involve Johnson and Patterson a bit more, both of whom are worth a look later in drafts. Kyle Rudolph will be less expensive than he has been in the past, I’d bet on the production if healthy.

20.  Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton is only 26 years old, so the feeling that he’s past his prime is just wrong. He’s matured and should be healthy heading into the year. Top 5 finish isn’t out of the question, but a conservative view has him around 10 in my rankings. Jonathan Stewart has the pieces, but the health elludes him. He’ll be good when he’s on the field but I’d rather go elsewhere in the first 3 rounds. Kelvin Benjamin should benefit the most from Newton’s presence, and should be a top 10WR target. Worth Drafting: Newton and Benjamin need each other for success, as the other pieces are lacking. Stewart is a fine back but I’d bet it’s more probable than not that he misses time. Cotchery in PPR leagues could be worth a look in the middle rounds, or a late flier in non-PPR.

19. San Fransisco 49ers

Every year there’s a QB that I think is going to elevate to the top teir. Last year it was Ben Roethlisber, this year it’s Colin Kaepernick. He struggle last year trying to adjust to a pocket passing role. In the off season he’s worked tirelessly to improve his efficiency and I expect hiim to see a spike in fantasy production. Carlos Hyde will likely get drafted far to early, and I caution against over hyping a player that has never been a full time starter. Adding Torrey Smith means more room for Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin to run. Both should continue to see good production, and Smith should benefit from Kaep’s strong arm down the feild. Worth Drafting: My bold prediction is Kaepernick finishes inside the top 10 at his position. Boldin is a machine and should produce, and Vernon Davis will bounce back. Carlos Hyde will look good for stretches but I don’t want him as my RB1.

18. New England Patriots

At this time, Brady is expected to miss 4 games, meaning a quarter of the season will feature backup Jimmy Garoppolo. Despite that the experts think he’s still the best QB in the division, I sense a down tick in production for each of New Englands big guns. Edeleman relies on Brady’s accuracy and LaFell is usually a later option. Can Garoppolo read the D like Brady and involve all of his weapons? Brady could beat his suspension which would likely rank this offense higher. Worth Drafting: Tom Brady has a chip on his shoulder, if you can survive 4 weeks with a backup QB, he’s worth a pick. I don’t draft a Patriots RB ever, for reason that should be obvious. Blount is not an elite NFL running back. Gronk shouldn’t see too much of a dip in production, but LaFell and Edeleman may struggle for a few weeks.

17. Cincinnatti Bengals

Andy Dalton has been the most frustrating of NFL quarterbacks in terms of fantasy. He produces for a time, then he kills you for a time. AJ Green is a stud, even if his numbers took a hit with Dalton’s struggles last year. The big question is does the team invest in surprise starter Jeremy Hill or does it go back to Gio Bernard? Worth Drafting: Dalton has shown he can be a low end QB starter, but you’re asking a lot from a player that struggled at times. A.J. Green is a safe pick, he’s as elite as any in the league. Despite Jeremy Hill’s success on the field, he put up similar numbers to Gio Bernard when he started, I feel a committee coming on.

16. New Orleans Saints

If you’re convinced Mark Ingram finally hit his stride, that could spell disaster for Drew Brees as he’s tumbling down draft boards with managements admittance that they’d like to balance the offense. No more will Brees attempt 650 passes, and this hurts them across the board. Brandin Cooks is a great WR and should do well taking over for Colston as the #1, but Ingram is the big question mark. An underwhelming start to his career was instantly wiped out of the minds of fantsy owners after a solid, if unspectacular year. Worth Drafting: Despite the reports, I’m not convinced Ingram can carry the load, and if Brees falls due to the buzz, I wouldn’t hesitate to draft him in the 3rd or 4th round. Ingram isn’t going to hit a lot of home runs but he should avg around 4 YPC and have a handful of TD’s. The fear is injuries or regression. Cooks is a stud in the making, and Brees will be looking to him often. Colston is another player who may fall beyond their value in your draft. PS. Josh Hill is not Jimmy Graham, so don’t mistake the two come draft day.

15. Baltimore Ravens

When Torrey Smith left, I was worried that Flacco lost his deep threat, but Breshad Perriman could prove to be an even better reciever than Smith. Steve Smith Sr. will likely prove his doubters wrong, and Justin Forsett finally provides stability in the backfield even with Taliefaro lurking in the wings. Worth Drafting: As always, Flacco takes a hit due to the scheme Baltimore runs, but his up weeks are great, solid back up or QB 2 in two quartback leagues. In ways that I don’t with other backs, I believe Forsett can run the football well enough to be a fantasy contributor. Steve Smith will be good again, and Perriman should be one of the rookies to perform in the top 20 of his position.

14. Arizona Cardinals

The team didn’t replace Ellington in the draft, meaning they think he can still perform. Maybe they’re not ready to say that a healthy Carson Palmer will make things different across the board. The stable of WR’s in Arizona are deep and talented, and they should create mismatches across the field. Worth Drafting: Palmer when healthy has the tools around him to be a top 15QB. Fitzgerald is a safe bet to be a top 10 WR and between Michael Floyd and John Brown, defenses will have a hard time adjusting. All of these players will be in play come draft day. Andre Ellington will either play well or be pushed out by the talented David Johnson, who I’d look at as a sleeper in the late rounds. Either way, there should be more consistency the backfield to open up the passing game.

13. Philadelphia Eagles

I personally think all things being equal, Sam Bradford is a superior quarterback to Nick Foles. Add in DeMarco Murray and you have the makings of a good to great offense. Jordan Matthews is only 22 but has big play ability and Chip Kelly has excelled with speedy talented players. The biggest boon for this team was the addition of DeMarco Murray. If LeSean McCoy’s troubles were less about running lanes and more about the runner, Murray should be in for another good year with a ton of touches. Worth Drafting: DeMarco Murray is still a top 5 back, and in Chip Kelly’s offense has a chance to finish at the top of the league again. Bradford will be a sexy pick on draft day, but try to maximize value at the QB position and he may not be that guy. Cooper should continue to see targets on intermediate routes and Matthews was a beast as a 21 year old, but Nelson Agholor could eat into his touches just a bit. Speaking of Agholor, he’s a quality sleeper candidate on a good offensive team. Look at him later in drafts.