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Heart of The Order: ADP Round 4-10 Preview

Winning your league takes understanding the value’s at each of the tiers. Everyone get’s to pick a few high end starters in those early rounds, but what you do here, in rounds 4-10 can mean the difference between playoff hopeful and championship contender. (PPR ADP Data supplied by Fantasypros.com)

Round 4

  • Doug Baldwin, WR – SEA
  • T.Y. Hilton, WR – IND
  • Zach Ertz, TE – PHI
  • Derrick Henry, RB – TEN
  • Stefon Diggs, WR – MIN
  • Amari Cooper, WR – OAK
  • Kenyan Drake, RB – MIA
  • Josh Gordon, WR – CLE
  • Jay Ajayi, RB – PHI
  • Alex Collins, RB – BAL

Player I Love: I’m aiming to get a piece of that Minnesota offense, and Diggs is the player I’m targeting. With Cousin’s big arm, Diggs could have a monster year.

Player I Hate: Kenyan Drake had a nice little finish to 2017, and it looked for a moment like he may be a breakout candidate for 2018. Then Miami added Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage to the stable. Neither guy projects as a 3 down workhorse, but in the fourth round, they inhibit Drake from being a true stud.

Round 5

  • Rashad Penny, RB – SEA
  • Allen Robinson, WR – CHI
  • Larry Fitzgerald, WR – ARI
  • Deshaun Watson, QB – HOU
  • Juju Smith-Schuster, WR – PIT
  • Derrius Guice, RB – WAS
  • Demaryius Thomas, WR – DEN
  • Mark Ingram, RB – NO
  • Brandin Cooks, WR – LAR
  • Russell Wilson, QB – SEA

Player I Love: The fifth round features two rookie RB’s that I love as Penny and Guice figure to act as feature backs for two teams that will likely run the ball a lot. Both have the talent and the opportunity to be top 15 backs.

Player I Hate: Mark Ingram has been polarizing among fantasy owners in his brief time in the NFL thanks to injury concerns and lack of work, but with Kamara emerging and the four game suspension keeping him out for 25% of the fantasy season, there’s no chance I take Ingram this early in drafts.

Round 6

  • Jarvis Landry, WR – CLE
  • Alshon Jeffrey, WR – PHI
  • Golden Tate, WR – DET
  • Lamar Miller, RB – HOU
  • Jimmy Graham, TE – GB
  • Tom Brady, QB – NE
  • Sony Michel, RB – NE
  • Evan Engram, TE – NYG
  • Greg Olsen, TE – CAR
  • Ronald Jones, RB – TB

Player I love: I’ve heard a lot of talk about Jimmy Graham as a potential bust, and I imagine it has to do with Green Bay’s history of not really using it’s tight ends. I’d argue it’s because Rodgers never had a weapon like Graham. I expect him and Adams to both put together top 5 seasons at their positions.

Player I Hate: Maybe it’s because I’m still bitter about the super bowl, but Tom Brady is 40 years old and has never had an off season like this one. On the field, he’ll likely win 12 games, but for your fantasy team he may hold you back as inconsistency should plague the Patriots this year.

Round 7

  • Carson Wentz, QB – PHI
  • Marvin Jones, WR – DET
  • Cam Newton, QB – CAR
  • Dion Lewis, RB – TEN
  • Drew Brees, QB – NO
  • Delanie Walker, TE – TEN
  • Kyle Rudolph, TE – MIN
  • Tevin Coleman, RB – ATL
  • Kirk Cousins, QB – MIN
  • Michael Crabtree, WR – BAL

Player I love: Marvin Jones Jr is being ranked currently as the WR25 after finishing 11th at the position last year. Matt Stafford still likes to sling the ball, and Jones has proven that he’s the most reliable down the field target in the offense. 1,000 yards and 8 TDs is a safe floor.

Player I Hate: Dion Lewis is a fantastic satellite back, but for some reason he’s being drafted based on his 2017 season in which the then-Patriot finished as a RB1. Now, he’s playing second fiddle to a superior back in Derrick Henry, and yet folks expect him to put up 1,000 + combined yards again. Don’t bet on it.

Round 8

  • Corey Davis, WR – TEN
  • Will Fuller, WR – HOU
  • Sammy Watkins, WR – KC
  • Devin Funchess, WR – CAR
  • Marshawn Lynch, RB – OAK
  • Carlos Hyde, RB – CLE
  • Chris Hogan, WR – NE
  • Julien Edelman, WR – NE
  • Marlon Mack, RB – IND
  • Robert Woods, WR – LAR

Player I Love: I have to give a whole lot of love to the two wide outs at the top of the round as Corey Davis and Will Fuller both have the potential to be top 20 WR’s. With Davis entering the year finally healthy and Fuller being reunited with Watson (whom he scored a ton of points with), neither guy is getting the respect they deserve.

Player I Hate: Marshawn Lynch may go down in history as one of the most entertaining backs of his generation, but the writing is on the wall for the aging back. With plenty of miles on his wheels, the Raiders brought in former Buc’s back Doug Martin to compete for the job. While both guys lack any excitement, Lynch’s time as a bell cow back is over.

Round 9

  • Jordan Reed, TE – WAS
  • Tarik Cohen, RB – CHI
  • Matthew Stafford, QB – DET
  • Royce Freeman, RB – DEN
  • Kerryon Johnson, RB – DET
  • Emmanuel Sanders, WR – DEN
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB – SF
  • Pierre Garcon, WR – SF
  • Isaiah Crowell, RB – NYJ
  • Chris Thompson, RB – WAS

Player I Love: Pierre Garcon may not be a threat to break the top 10 at WR, but in PPR leagues especially, his ability to get open from the slot will mean a ton of targets for the veteran. His 67 targets through 8 games may be a bit on the high end, but 120 total targets are within reach.

Player I Hate: This one is a bit of a stretch as these middle round picks aren’t make or break, but Jordan Reed is still being drafted as a top 10 TE despite missing 14 games over the last two seasons. As an injury risk, drafting Reed is precarious at best, and should be avoided if at all possible.

Round 10

  • Cooper Kupp, WR – LAR
  • Devante Parker, WR – MIA
  • Andrew Luck, QB – IND
  • Trey Burton, TE – CHI
  • Jamison Crowder, WR – WAS
  • Jordy Nelson, WR – OAK
  • Marquise Goodwin, WR – SF
  • Duke Johnson, RB – CLE
  • Rex Burkhead, RB – NE
  • Randall Cobb, WR – GB

Player I Love: Devante Parker has flashed before, but with the issues under center last year seriously disappointed fantasy owners who invested in him. I say ignore the feelings of discomfort and bet on his talent. With all the targets up for grabs, and Tannehill back under center, Parker could see 40-60 more targets this year.

Player I Hate: Jordy Nelson was once the cream of the NFL crop when it came to high end fantasy receivers. Now he’ll be a third option at best in an offense that struggled last year to find traction in it’s passing game. With Cooper and Bryant miles ahead of Nelson in terms of athletic ability and talent, it’ll be tough sledding for the 33 year old vet.

 

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Never Too Early For Sleepers!

While the season still sits firmly on the horizon, fantasy nerds like myself help prop up the early season ADP data by grinding mock drafts despite having very little information to work with. While I’ll still examine each position with the “hidden gem” feature articles later in the summer, we’re going to provide sleeper updates on a monthly basis until the season begins.

Quarterback:

Ryan Tannehill, MIA: Don’t confuse his inclusion on this list as a suggestion that the Dolphins are a team on the rise; because they’re not. What he is, though, is a potential top 15 fantasy quarterback available in the last few rounds of your draft. Ignoring last season, Tannehill has finished 13th (2013), 7th (2014), and 15th (2015), and turned in a dud in 2016 as the QB25 (he did miss 3 games). Those aren’t world beater numbers, but considering tannehillthe relatively easy schedule he’ll face, and his ability to generate surprising yards on the ground (he averages around 200 yards per season) his floor is well above what we may expect from a player being drafted currently in the 21st round of deep drafts. As a bench player, he costs very little draft capital, but provides more upside than the other QB’s being drafted in a similar spot.

Matt Ryan, ATL: A massive drop off from his QB2 finish in 2016, Ryan’s 2017 has scared off potential suitors and saw him drop to the QB16 spot per current consensus ADP data. No longer playing with the pressures of the QB who blew the biggest super bowl lead, Ryan is poised to bounce back. Atlanta returns it’s superstar backfield, still has Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and added Calvin Ridley at the draft, marking a very clear focus on surrounding Matty Ice with weapons. A return to the high flying offensive numbers of 2016 may be a stretch, but I’d find it hard to believe if Ryan turns in another dud this year. I fully expect a top 10 QB finish, and one that can be added in the 11th round of your draft.

Running Backs:

Ty Montgomery, GB: I know I was derisive of Montgomery last year, but in spite of that, his current ranking (RB59, ADP – 100) is criminally low for a back that many viewed as a top 20 back last year before injuries derailed his season. While he remains an injury risk, a health Montgomery should resume his lead back role in 2018, especially in the passing game. It doesn’t hurt that he’ll be catching passes from the best QB in the game right now. If you need to add depth at the RB position, or punted on early round backs, Montgomery may help bail out a roster.

Marlon Mack, IND: While Mack was a trendy sleeper pick last year behind the aging Frank Gore, his performance over the season left a lot to be desired. In 16 games Mack garnered double digit touches only twice (in week 1 and week 8) otherwise he was an after thought in a terrible Colts offense. Now, he’s in line to be the lead back with Gore leaving for Miami, and the news that he’s fully recovered from surgery to repair a torn labrum he played the season with further cements his “sleeper” status in my mind. Even if Andrew Luck remains on the shelf, in the 8th round of drafts (ADP of 77th overall), Mack provides a solid floor while presenting plenty of upside.

 

Wide Recievers:

Devante Parker, MIA: Last year, Parker was drafted with the expectation that he’d take a leap into the positions top 20; instead he was saddled with horrendous quarterback play and inconsistent targets following the season ending ACL injury suffered by Ryan Tannehill. While Tannehill doesn’t present much of an upgrade over Jay Cutler and co in terms of real football, he does have a great rapport with Parker. Coupled with a relatively easy schedule, an Parker is a steal at 104 overall.

Cole Beasley, DAL: Another tumultuous offseason for the Cowboys saw franchise corner stone Dez Bryant leave via free agency and Jason Witten retired. Despite the addition of Allen Hurns, the player who stands to gain the most from the absence should be Cole Beasley. After leading the team in targets in 2016, Beasley felt the effects of the Elliott suspension hard as the season saw him finish with only 36 catches on 63 targets. Let’s not forget, though, that the diminutive slot man led the team in targets in 2016 and saw a healthy 75 targets the year before. Expecting 80+ targets shouldn’t be too difficult a prediction considering that Dak Prescott has to throw to somebody and Beasely represents the best option for slot work on a run first team. Basically an afterthought in drafts so far, Beasley can be had for the low low price of nothing.

Tight Ends:

David Njoku, Cle: Coming out of college Njoku seemed like a lock to contribute right out of the gates, but as we so often find out, rookies are a crap shoot in fantasy. Now, the word is that targets are going to be scarce for the talented tight end, thanks to three very good receivers and two capable pass catching backs on the roster. I’d argue that with Tyrod Taylor’s propensity to scramble with the football, Njoku could be a nice target for owners looking to add TE depth late in drafts. While he likely won’t finish in the top 15 at the position, he’ll probably see a healthy number of targets in the red zone, giving him value regardless.

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Jac: One of these days my Sefarian-Jenkins take is going to pay off in spades, and this year looks like it’s the year. Uber talented, Sefarian-Jenkins toiled away on a Jets team that couldn’t get consistency on offense no matter how hard it tried. It was recently revealed that ASJ suffered from substance abuse issues that he’s since sought help for and claims that he’s sober and focused on football for the first time as a pro. Color me intrigued as an involved Sefarian-Jenkins could be a monster in fantasy, especially given the lack of top tier weapons in Jacksonville following Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns departures. A late round target, he’ll cost you next to nothing to acquire but could be a massive piece of a championship run.

Turmoil with Tannehill

tannehill

By now you’ve heard that Ryan Tannehill had to leave Dolphins practice on Thursday, and the news out of Miami is that potential season-ending surgery is on the table. Maybe you weren’t planning on drafting Tannehill anyhow, but his absense certainly will affect fantasy targets around him.

Matt Moore – QB: The most obvious first-domino would be who steps in under center. Despite rumblings that Jay Cutler may be interested in the gig due to his ties to Adam Gase and his offense, my money is on Matt Moore. Moore performed admirably against all three AFC east teams last year posting 240 yards per game with 8 TDs against 3 INT’s in his three starts. If Moore does start, a reasonable expectation would be around 3,500 yards and 20-22 TDs but the turnovers could rise a bit. He’s a late round flyer at best.

Jay Ajayi – RB: Stacked boxes could mean a change of fortunes for a back many considered to be a top 10 talent. If last seasons disparity between his three 200 yard efforts and the rest of the season is any indication, consistency may be an issue for Ajayi. Draft data suggests that people are already tempering expectations following the Tannehill injury as he’s fallen into the 2nd round on average. In the first round he’s a bit of a gamble but if you can get him in the 2nd or even the third he could be a steal as he’s unlike to relinquish many touches regardless.

Jarvis Landry – WR: While you may find yourself concerned with Landry’s outlook with Moore under center, it’s important to remember that as primarily the slot receiver, he’ll likely be targeted with a similar frequency. In the three games Moore started, Landry had two very good fantasy performances (9 catches on 12 targets for 76 yards and a TD in New England – and 4 catches for 108 yards and a TD against the Jets). If I were to bet on his usage, I would expect him to be a saftey blanket for Moore, leaving his value mostly untouched despite Tannehills absense.

DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills – WR: It’d be wise to bump both of these players down a bit in your rankings, but neither was an after thought in the three games Moore started last year. Parker has a bit more upside and his size makes him a redzone threat, but if the Dolphins find themselves throwing late in games (playing teams like New England will do that to ya) then both have potential to shine.

The bottom line is Tannehill could very well rehab and return, or he could opt for surgery and miss the year. While most teams would notice a massive step back without their starting QB, Moore has proven to be more than servicable as a starter and with Adam Gase coaching the team you can expect some fireworks from the passing game. Obviously playing in the AFC East presents a few challenges, but the Dolphins should still produce a few fantasy stars; provided you can get them at a reasonable draft price.

NFL Injury Round Up

nilespaulEvaluating injuries prior to your draft? We’ll attempt to break down how they may affect your teams and strategies.

  • Michael Floyd – WR / Arizona Cardinals (Hand) – I expect Floyd to be ready for week one, but it’s clear the door is open for John Brown to ascend to push Floyd further down on our rankings. Unless he gets meaningful preseason reps, I’d expect him to open as the WR3 in Arizona.
  • Kevin White – WR / Chicago Bears (Shin) – 6 weeks minimum is the expected time missed for the rookie as his shin injury required surgery. He could be on the shelf longer, but even when he returns it’s unlikely he’ll provide much fantasy help. Eddie Royal is looking like gold right now…
  • Darren McFadden – RB / Dallas (Hamstring) – Although it’s not nearly as severe as the other injuries on this list, the mere mention of yet another injury in the long litany of them DMC has suffered should give owners pause. Draft with extreme caution, primarily as the cuff to Joseph Randle who now owns the keys to the kingdom.
  • Joique Bell – RB / Detroit Lions (Knee) – Bell is working hard to find his way back on to the field, but it may be too little too late for the ageing veteran. Ameer Abdullah’s hype train seems unstoppable at this point, and while Bell won’t be kicked to the curb completely, it’s hard to expect him to handle a larger portion of the snaps.
  • Arian Foster – RB / Houston (Groin) – It’s looking like half the season or more after groin surgery to repair the most recent injury to Foster. I argued to look past the injury history with Foster earlier in the off season, but it’s hard to ignore the facts; Foster is an injury waiting to happen, and as such needs to be handled with kid gloves. The fear with Foster is that even when he does play it’ll be a wait and see approach if he’s even worth starting. More of a last round flier than anything else with his history.
  • Devante Parker – WR / Miami (Foot) – He showed flashes earlier in the off season and looked to fill a role on a team with several diminutive possession receivers. He should be ready for week one, but it may take him some time to get going, and Miami has a lot of mouths to feed. Be mindful he won’t be impact-full for several weeks at best to start the season.
  • Brandon LaFell – WR / New England Patriots (Foot) – What exactly does his injury report mean? Not much considering that New England is the masters at giving just enough information to seem forthcoming but really say nothing. He may be hobbled to a bit to start the season, but without Brady, his numbers should be stunted anyways.
  • CJ Spiller – RB / New Orleans Saints (Knee) – Spiller’s injury likely won’t cost him regular season playing time but it’s worth noting that Spiller has had troubles staying healthy in the past. When he’s on the field he’s electric, and his ability to play 3rd and passing downs makes him a valuable asset, but keep a close eye on his health going into your drafts, and have a backup plan for if (when) he becomes injured.
  • Zach Ertz – TE / Philadelphia Eagles (Torso) – Ertz had a relatively minor surgery on his core, so expect him to be ready for week one. Not nearly as concerning as a head, knee, or foot injury, I’d ignore this one as a real threat to his ascension into the elite ranks of  TE’s. Expect him utilized early and often in Chip Kelly’s uptempo offense.
  • Niles Paul – TE / Washington Redskins (Ankle) – At one point, the question of which Washington TE would get the bulk of looks was a real one. Now we know it won’t be Paul. The out-of-no-where contributor will be on the shelf for the 2015 season after breaking his ankle in the preseason. If Jordan Reed is healthy ( and they’re a concern there as well ) he could be worthy of a later round flier.

2015 NFL Draft Fallout: WR (and TE) Edition

We’ve examined the top of the RB draft class earlier in the week, but this year featured another above average WR class. Several of the top players were drafted early in the first round, so lets take a look at the guys who may get snagged on Fantasy Draft day. For the purpose of the article, I’ll seperate the WR’s from the TE’s

WIDE RECEIVERS

Amari Cooper / Oakland Raiders: Being the first WR off the board at the third overall pick, Cooper finds himself as the defacto day one WR1 in an improved Oakland offense. With the emergence of Derek Carr, Cooper finds himself in an enviable position to produce from day one. His ability to run most routes and quickness to beat DB’s, Cooper will be leaned on heavily to produce for the Raiders.

Kevin White / Chicago Bears: You can’t teach size, or at least that’s what I’ve heard. Kevin White is a big, physical reciever with 4.3 speed who will terrorize DB’s with Jay Cutlers big arm. His ability to adjust to the ball and catch at it’s highest point will be invaluable to an offense that often times relies on it’s recievers to make plays for their QB. On day one will be a red zone threat, and with Alshon demanding the double teams, expect White to breakout early.

DeVante Parker / Miami Dolphins: What the Dolphins were lacking was a sizable reciever to be a redzone threat, and that’s exactly what they got when they drafted Parker in the first  round. He will pair well with the current stable of receivers, offering a different look for Ryan Tannehill when looking down field. Depending on how often he’s used in the endzone, Parker’s value could fluctuate from week to week in this offense.

Nelson Agholor / Philadelphia Eagles: A much improved Eagles offense snagged Agholor toward the end of the first round. With a huge buzz building heading into the draft, Agholor presents a wonderful weapon to an offense that has plenty. His ability to run crisp routes and play both inside and outside will be a boon for a Sam Bradford lead offense, but temper your expectations as DeMarco Murray should dominate the touches early on as they work toward offensive balance.

Breshad Perriman / Baltimore Ravens: This pick makes a ton of sense for the Baltimore Ravens. With Torrey Smith gone, they needed a speedy WR to pair with Flacco’s monster arm. In Perriman they got a kid that ran a 4.2 at the combine and impressed scouts and experts with his ability to make plays on third and fourth down. As we’ve seen in the past Baltimore will attempt to balance their offense but with new OC Mark Trestman, they may throw the ball more than ever. This will certainly help Perriman offer better value to Fantasy owners.

Phillip Dorsett / Indianapolis Colts: Dorsett is a fine player with a ton of speed and ability, the problem I have with this pick from a fantasy perspective is that he’s going to be buried on a Colts roster featuring TY Hilton and Andre Johnson. If there is an injury to either of those players, Dorsett’s value sky rockets, so keep tabs on how he’s used to see when if at all you should draft him.

Devin Smith / New York Jets: A good all around WR, Smiths fantasy value takes a hit just being in Jets’ green. With as questionable the QB position is I wouldn’t expect Smith to produce, at least not early in the year with Decker and Marshall ahead of him on the Depth Chart.

Dorial Green-Beckham / Tennessee Titans: One of the most contriversial skill players in the draft, Beckham may have the best set of tools in the draft for WR’s. Pairing him with Marcus Mariota may mean some inconsistency early, but if he continues to be a beast on the field, he could put up monster numbers for fantasy owners brave enough to ignore his off the field issues.

Jaelen Strong / Houston Texans: Not your typical deep threat despite good size, Strong has been knocked for being “too raw” as he seems to still be finding his stride as a wideout. With questions at QB and DeAndre Hopkins and Cecil Shorts being the go to’s, strong may be a project for Houston, and should be viewed as a draft and stash in keeper and dynasty leagues rather than a contributor this year.

TIGHT ENDS 

Maxx Williams / Baltimore Ravens: Last year the TE position was in such flux and left so many questions, Baltimore went out and grabbed the top TE in this years class. Williams should be a day 1 starter, and given Baltimores use of TE’s in past season with Joe Flacco, I expect there to be a fairly good return on investment with this player.

Clive Walford / Oakland Raiders: Lauded as a young combo TE, Walford has some work to do if he wants to steal the starting gig from Mychal Rivera. A sizable TE with good catch radius, may be worth watching in camp if he can win some playing time.

The TE class is really light this year. Several other players graded in the same range but may not have the ability to contribute this year and as thus will not be spotlighted. 

There are plenty of players on the above list that will appear on championship teams come the end of this years Fantasy leagues, but the question is who and how do you get them. Will a player like Dorial Green-Beckham explode like we hope he will? Will Phillip Dorsett let down owners who are enamored with his 4.2 speed because he can’t crack the roster? Only time will tell.