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Week 5 Daily Fantasy Targets

Week 4 wasn’t our finest week, but we had a few solid picks and were in the money in one our leagues (nothing major but it keeps us at around .500 for cashes).

Quarterbacks

  • $$$: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens ($7,100)
    • After allowing 20+ points through two weeks, the Pittsburgh defense has played two excellent games against opposing quarterbacks, but we feel that this trend will revert in week 5. Jackson has shown the ability to play within the pocket, while using his legs to supplement a surprising passing game. In this divisional rivalry, I see the Ravens taking it handily, and Jackson performing very well.
  • $$: Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,200)
    • While New Orleans ranks 30th in points allowed to QB’s, it has been a tale of two defenses, with Houston and Seattle balling out in weeks 1 and three, and Goff and Prescott managing less than 25 points combined (with Dak’s 6 points being a low last week). Still, the emergence of Chris Godwin has turned the passing game into a lethal weapon, and Ronald Jones new found efficiency is helping to keep defenses honest. It may not be as high a scoring affair as it would be with Brees, but it should be Winston that benefits from a sub par passing defense.
  • $: Teddy Bridgewater, New Orleans Saints ($5,200)
    • While he’s been more of a game manager through three games, he’s been efficient regardless, completing over 70% of his passes over the previous two weeks. The Bucs offense has been scoring in bunches, and if it goes to the air (and I believe it will) he has the weapons in Thomas and Kamara to post points without having to do much of the work himself. Considering the Tampa defense has allowed quite a bit of scoring, I expect Bridgewater to be an absolute value in DFS this week.

Running Backs

  • $$$: David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals ($7,500)
    • Johnson’s volume has saved him from a bit of a difficult start to the season, as he’s drawn three difficult matchups in a row, running to the tune of nearly 3 yards per carry during that time. This week he gets a last place Bengals rushing defense that’s allowed no fewer than 21 points in PPR formats to opposing backs. This could be the turnaround game for the former 2,000 rusher as we expect that volume to remain constant.
  • $$: James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,200)
    • Life with Mason Rudolph was one where the ball rarely went down field, and Conner managed to turn a rough day on the ground into a very productive day as a dump off safety value for Rudolph. With Baltimore a very real threat to get up early, Conner could again be a heavy part of the passing game as the Steelers coaching staff didn’t seem comfortable taking the reigns off their back up signal caller
  • $: James White, New England Patriots ($5,000)
    • The last time we saw the Patriots, it was against a Bills team that bottled them up all day, but coming into a juicy match up against a Colt McCoy led Washington team, the Pats look to bounce back in a big way. Rex Burkhead is out, Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon are dinged up, and Brady is going to have to look White’s way fairly often, making him a solid cheap play on Sunday.

Wide Receivers

  • $$$: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($7,700)
    • Remember when Jones was considered a “can’t reach the end zone” receiver? Jones currently has four receiving TD’s through four weeks, and is still the best receiver in a passing attack that should put up points against Houston this week. The volume is there for Jones, who’s target share has been in the 8-12 targets per week. Start him with confidence if you’re looking for an expensive option for your team.
  • $$: Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,900)
    • The Eagles looked off last week, but Wentz tried over and over again to fit the ball to his star receiver. Against a Jets secondary that’s providing solid scoring to opposing fantasy receivers, he should again be a target magnet, and I expect him to have far better success this week.
  • $: Dionte Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,400)
    • When the season started, we had high expectations for Donte Moncrief and James Washington, but it looks like rookie receiver Dionte Johnson could be the peanut butter to Juju Smith-Schusters jelly in this offense thanks to an apparent level of comfort with backup made starter Mason Rudolph. As mentioned before, this offense has turned to a check down philosophy, and Johnson looks like he could fit the bill nicely.

Tight Ends

  • $$: Darren Waller, Oakland Raiders ($5,000)
    • The raiders search for receiving weapons has seemed to provide the athletic tight end with extra opportunities so far, and a tough match up against a Bears defense that’s limited pretty much everyone but opposing tight ends from production looks like a solid play here.
  • $: Tyler Eifert, Cincinatti Bengals ($3,300)
    • Predicting anything in fantasy is difficult, but Arizona seems to love allowing opposing Tight Ends to score. While he’s been an afterthought through much of the season, a trip or two to the end zone shouldn’t be out of the question for the oft-injured tight end.

D/ST

  • Patriots D/ST ($4,300)
    • Daily fantasy sites are starting to catch up to the Pats dominance against weak opponents, but against a third string QB and a Washington team that offers very little talent on offense, this could be another dominating performance for a defense that’s strung together several to start the season
  • Titans D/ST ($3,000)
    • If you’re looking for a cheaper option, the Titans defense has been excellent this year as well, and draws a Buffalo team that may not be 100% on Sunday. With Josh Allen having been knocked out of last Sunday’s contest, it should be interesting to see how he handles pressure this week.

The Dr’s DFS Team

  • QB: Jameis Winston
  • RB: James Conner
  • RB: James White
  • WR: Chris Godwin
  • WR: Alshon Jeffery
  • WR: Dionte Johnson
  • TE:  Darren Waller
  • Flex: Sterling Shepard
  • DST: Patriots D/ST

 

 

 

 

Week 3 Daily Fantasy Picks

Last week we had a few solid picks but game scripts and injuries kept us from really hitting big. We aim to do better as the year wears on. Of course, it’s important to understand the purpose of this exercise. There are plenty of players we like on different teams, but our aim is to provide value at each tier, to help fill out the last few roster spots that you may have trouble with. Every roster will feature players from each; these are just the guys we like the most this week. 

Quarterbacks

$$$: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens ($7,000): I’m not too concerned about Mahomes failing to produce this week even against Baltimore’s D, but getting Jackson, who’s nearly kept pace with Mahomes as it is, is a better value this week. This one should turn into a shootout, so getting one of these guys as your “expensive” pick should pay dividends.

$$: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($5,700): Inside, Matt Ryan has played his best football, and while they’re on the road, he draws a favorable match up against an Indy team that should allow him to score some points. I feel that Jacoby Brissett should be half way decent this week (more on that bellow), so both teams may be forced to score.

$: Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts ($5,200): It seemed like all was lost when Andrew Luck announced his retirement, but Brissett has looked capable in his last few starts. While the red zone efficiency is likely going to come back to earth, this week against a high scoring Falcons team, he’ll be asked to do even more with injuries hampering his backfield.

Running Backs

$$$: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints ($8,000): I entertained CMC here, but of the two elite backs who are operating without their QB’s, I trust the Teddy Bridewater to get Kamara the ball better than the situation in Carolina. Seattle’s defense has looked solid to this point, but Kamara is the kind of backfield asset who, outside of extenuating circumstances (last week anyone?) nearly always turns in fantasy performances.

$$: Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens ($5,700): While we may have expected Justice Hill to have a larger role in the Baltimore offense, it’s been largely the Mark Ingram show, and with a trip to Kansas City in the docket, he could be asked to play a larger role in the passing game. I’m not always keen on highlighting several players like this, but I expect Baltimore to surprise some folks today on offense.

$: Darwin Thompson, Kansas City Chiefs ($3,000): There was a point over the weekend when we weren’t sure if even LeSean McCoy would play, but even if McCoy is on the field, his lingering ankle issue should open the door for Darwin Thompson to see a real valuable role, if just for one week. If Baltimore can keep pace with Kansas City, then expect a high scoring game for this backfield, one way or another.

Wide Receivers

$$$: Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys ($7,500): Amari Cooper has continued to show us that he’s a far better receiver than his time in Oakland led us to believe. This week, he’ll shoulder a larger burden with Michael Gallup dinged up, and the Miami Defense has yielded a ton of points to opposing teams.

$$: Tyler Boyd, Cincinatti Bengals ($6,500): Speaking of volume, Tyler Boyd has been a target vacuum, seeing a ton in his usual role in the short and intermediate passing game. Buffalo’s defense is a bit better than they get credit for, but with John Ross showing he can take the top off, I like Boyd to see a ton of targets again on Sunday.

$: D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($4,700): Metcalf has looked every bit of the downfield specialist we thought he’d be when he was drafted early by the Seahawks. While Tyler Lockett remains the teams top target, down the field and in the end zone, Metcalf will feature heavily. At that price point, I feel confident that a trip the end zone and a big catch or two is going to give us plenty of value.

Tight Ends

$$: Evan Engram, New York Giants ($5,200): The guy has been one of the two or three best TE’s in terms of fantasy scoring (as we expected) and I don’t see that slowing down any time soon. While you may feel concerned with Daniel Jones under center this week, I expect him to be at least replacement level for Eli Manning, and if he plays even a modicum better, then Engram could have another monster week.

$: Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($3,700): The news that Cam Newton is going to miss Sunday’s game certainly put damper on the receivers group, but of all the Panther’s pass catchers, Olsen should lose the least amount of work with the backup QB. Arizona ranks dead last in the NFL this season in allowing points to tight ends, and while Olsen carries a question mark of health into Sunday’s match up, if he plays, I like him to produce despite Kyle Allen starting under center.

D/ST

$$: Patriots D/ST ($3,800): Playing Dallas’ D/ST against the Dolphins may sound like a no brainer, but with an elite Patriots defense costing about $500 of your balance less, and facing off against a third string QB for the Jets, I have to go with the Pats defense in week 3.

$: San Francisco 49ers D/ST ($3,000): There’s a lot of value with D/ST’s as they all inhabit the same airspace in terms of cost, but the 9er’s defense has been scoring with regularity to this point in the season, and draws a banged up Steeler’s offense at home. With Mason Rudolph under center and the health of running back Jame’s Conner up in the air, there’s a chance that the San Fran D could be one of the most valuable starts this week.

The Doctor’s Lineup

  • QB: Matt Ryan
  • RB: Mark Ingram
  • RB: Darwin Thompson
  • WR: Marquise Brown
  • WR: Amari Cooper
  • WR: D.K. Metcalf
  • TE: Evan Engram
  • Flex: Alvin Kamara
  • D/ST: Patriots D/ST

Notes: I had to make a few adjustments just to fit the roster under the cap. I do like Marquise Brown this week against KC’s defense, especially if KC can put up points. While there’s some risk in playing Darwin Thompson this week, his price is basically free and in that potential high scoring match up, that’s the kind of risk that can pay off in spades in Daily contests.

Week 2: Daily Fantasy Picks

Week 1 saw a handful of guys we picked go off, most notably Lamar Jackson, although we could have done a bit better. Week ones are always unpredictable, so we’ll take it with a grain of salt. Below are our favorite picks, in the format we’ve established from week 1.

Quarterbacks

$$$: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,500) – Against what we considered a solid defense, and without his top reciever for much of the contest, Mahomes did MVP like things, hanging 300+ yards and three TD’s against the Jaguars. Oakland should provide just as many opportunities for Mahomes to rack up points.

$$: Tom Brady, New England Patriots ($6,500) – Defy father time yet again? Check… Acquire one of this generations best receiving talents (despite off the field issues)? Check… Draw what may amount to the worst team in the NFL? Check. This week against Miami, Brady should once again look like a legit top 5 QB.

$: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions ($5,200) – If you’re looking for a discount, Stafford may be your man. The emergence of T.J. Hockenson only solidifies what may be one of the best groups of receiving weapons he’s had since the departure of Calvin Johnson. Given that the Chargers can score with the best of them, it’s likely he’ll be called on to attempt quite a few passes on Sunday.

Running Backs

$$$: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants ($9,200) – Any of the top three options available (including Zeke and Kamara) are solid options, but drawing the Buffalo Bills should provide plenty of opportunities for Barkley to improve on the low volume/high efficiency start he had to the season.

$$: Sony Michel, New England Patriots ($6,200) – The Patriots offense drawing the Miami Dolphins is an obvious feather in his cap, but the news that James White will miss week 2 action following the birth of his child leaves the door wide open for Michel to assume a much larger workload than usual. If the Patriots get ahead early, they could pound the ball late.

$: Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins ($3,900) – The news that Derrius Guice has been placed on IR means the backfield will see a solid dose of Chris Thompson, especially on passing downs. It may be too early to tag Dallas as a top offense, but if they’re scoring, it’ll be Thompson, not Peterson, with the big day.

Wide Receivers

$$$: Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints ($8,000) – Don’t be scared off by the Rams passing defense after one week, this is a high scoring Saints offense with a lot to prove after having their season ended last year against this very Rams team thanks to an egregious call. Thomas is going to see a ton of targets every week, and while we have concerns about Brees lasting all season at the top of the mountain, we’re confident he’ll be good early on.

$$: Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams ($6,400) – He may have had a disappointing week last week, with only 15 PPR points, but his 13 targets should set your mind at ease regarding his usage. As mentioned above, this weeks match up should produce one of the more exciting games of the week, and Woods should see another healthy dose of targets as Goff may not have time to find his down the field targets with the Saints defense getting after him.

$: D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,500) – They say backups throw to backups, and Gardner Minshew certainly looked Chark’s way several times after Foles left the Jaguars week one matchup with an injury. This is an offense that has never really established a top receiver, so there’s as much of a chance that Chark continues his torrid pace against a Houston team that could force Minshew to throw it a lot all game.

Tight End

$$$: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,300) – I’m not super confident in either Kelce or Kittle to perform consistently this week as both draw defenses that aren’t excellent for fantasy purposes for TE’s, but Kelce should be involved heavily regardless thanks to Hills extended absence. Last week it was Watkins, but it could very easily be Kelce with several TD grabs this week.

$$: Evan Engram, New York Giants ($5,200) – There seems to be a curse on the Giants receiving group, and Engram stands to gain as much as Barkley thanks to a passing game that will continue to siphon through his hands. With Shepard entering concussion protocol, we can’t be certain who will line up beside Barkley and Engram this week.

$: Darren Waller, Oakland Raiders ($3,300) – Waller saw a healthy dose of action in week one thanks to the departure of Antonio Brown, so expecting him to be involved in what should be a game of catch up isn’t hard to imagine. Kansas City is going to put up points, and Carr is going to have to use his athletic tight end if they’re going to hope to keep pace.

D/ST

$$: Patriots D/ST vs. Miami ($3,700) – Could the Pats lay a dud like they did last year against the Detroit Lions? Sure, but this defense looks legit at all three levels, and Miami is fielding a disgruntled J.V. roster. Pats should win handily, and I expect a few turnovers as well.

$: Seahawks D/ST vs. Pittsburgh ($2,900) – Are the Patriots really a top 5 defense this year? Maybe, but there seems to be something wrong with the Pittsburgh offense, and Seattle’s defense isn’t anything to sneeze at either. With their smash mouth, grind you down offense, they’re just as likely to keep that Pittsburgh offense off balance, and hold them to another dud in week 2.

Dr.’s Roster

  • QB: Matt Stafford
  • RB: Sony Michel
  • RB: Chris Thompson
  • WR: Michael Thomas
  • WR: Robert Woods
  • WR: D.J. Chark
  • TE: Darren Waller
  • Flex: Alvin Kamara
  • Patriots D/ST

Thursday Night Preview

CGodwinIn what has become a bit of a running joke, the Thursday Night Football game promises to be a dud more often than not. What does that mean for your fantasy prospects? We’ll take a look in this weeks Thursday Night Preview.

The Teams – Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last week wasn’t kind to these two teams, as only Christian McCaffrey turned in a worth-while fantasy performance (128 rushing yards, 10 receptions for 81 yards, and two rushing TDs). Cam Newton, Mike Evans, Jamies Winston, and Greg Olsen were all duds, while Chris Godwin and D.J. Moore had solid PPR days, but left a lot on the table. Carolina’s defense did allow 166 rushing yards to RB’s on only 28 total carries, but Tampa Bay features a far less exciting stable of backs than the Rams do.

Conversely, the 49ers offense wasn’t nearly as efficient despite hanging 31 points on the Bucs. Cam Newton will have to improve on his week one performance is the passing game is going to get back on track against a defense that allowed a meager 166 yards through the air to Jimmy Garoppolo.

Sits

Jameis Winston: Facing a Carolina defense that held Jared Goff and the prolific Rams passing offense to under 200 yards passing, Winston could have another tough go of it in week 2.

Mike Evans: While I still believe in Evans in year long leagues, I’m concerned about the Bucs offense providing Winston with enough time to find Evans down the field. I could see a game script that’s more run heavy with a lot of short to intermediate passing plays; something that doesn’t help a guy like Evans.

Curtis Samuel: Moore and McCaffrey shared the bulk of the targets, and considering how well Tampa defended San Francisco, it could be more of the same in week 2. Moore is clearly the top target, and if Newton has to lean as heavily on the run game in week 2, the opportunities aren’t going tot be there for Samuel to be a safe play.

Starts

Christian McCaffrey: Don’t read too much into the lack of success San Francisco had in week 1; their backfield was thrown into turmoil early on with the loss of Tevin Coleman. CMC is on a different level, and even thought we can’t expect nearly a 7 yard per  carry mark every week, he’ll have one of the safest weekly volumes, and is clutch in the red zone.

Chris Godwin: Evans is likely to be the focal point of the Bucs defense, meaning Godwin will have more opportunities to be targeted. If Carolina scores early and often, it’s Godwin, and not Evans, that I’m targeting in daily for week 2.

Thoughts on The Game

I don’t think this will be your prototypical 13-10 Thursday night game, but I expect fatigue to become a factor for the teams playing on the first short week of the season. Of course, these two teams look like they’re continue to filter the ball through it’s best play makers, so feel confident starting most of the top guys in these offenses, but be wary of the Thursday Night curse (low scoring duds).

Week 2 Waiver Adds

Waiver Wire Adds

So you’re hit with an injury or five, and you need to add a few players from the waivers? Here’s a few we’ll be considering for our own depleted rosters for week 2.

Quarter Back

  • Josh Allen (Owned in 20%) may have looked like a polished turd on Sunday, but he’s entrenched as the starter, and puts up points with his legs most weeks. If you’re hard up for a QB, he’s almost guaranteed to be available in your leagues.
  • Matt Stafford (Owned in 16.3%) being owned in less than 20% of leagues seems crazy to me, since he’s almost always contributing in fantasy terms. The Lions were bad last year, and shouldn’t be much better this year, but without a broken back and with additional receiving weapons, Stafford is a solid plan b.
  • Andy Dalton (Owned in 4.2%) I doubt you need to reach this far into the barrel for a QB, but if you’re in a 2 QB league or superflex, you may need to look his way if you lost Nick Foles. Cincinnati may not put up the numbers it did on Sunday, but it’s clear he’ll be able to help in a pinch.

Running Back:

  • Ronald Jones (Owned in 40.6%) – He was by far the more dynamic runner on Sunday, and in a game that went sideways against San Francisco, he still made some noise. Peyton Barber isn’t going to be difficult to leap frog in terms of touches, so snagging Jones now in hopes he continues to breakout will be the least expensive option.
  • Giovani Bernard (Owned in 32.3 %) – Will Joe Mixon miss extended time? We won’t know until the results of his MRI come back, but Gio Bernard should be in line for the lion’s share of work. Of course, the Bengals drafted two running backs in the draft, but the best of the bunch, Trayveon Williams, was dinged up himself going into week 1. He’s a flier for sure, but especially for Mixon owners, Bernard can help get you by. 
  • Chris Thompson (Owned in 18%) – When Adrian Peterson was made inactive in Week 1, it was an odd move, but it opened up a little more opportunity for Thompson to see the field. There’s no guarantee what is going on with Peterson, but Thompson has proven that he can be an effective flex start in PPR formats for years, so if you’re playing in one of the 82% of leagues he’s available, he may be worth an add.
  • Malcom Brown (Owned in 6.5%) – It’s been debated since the draft about Todd Gurley and who stands to gain the most from his ongoing knee issues, and I think we saw yesterday that Brown can absolutely be a weapon even if Gurley is on the field. With efficient play and two trips to the endzone, he’s not only an excellent handcuff, but for non-Gurley owners, he’s a solid add regardless. 

Wide Reciever:

  • John Brown (Owned in 35.4%) – I still have some concerns about Brown’s ability to stay healthy, but until he finds himself injured, Brown figures to be the top passing option in a Bills offense that’s perennially devoid of big time play makers. He’ll have some bad weeks, and likely end up injured at some point, but ride the hot hand while it’s there. 
  • Marquise Brown (Owned in 28.2%) – Color me surprised, but Brown showed no ill-effects from the lisfranc surgery he had this off season in a monster performance in week one. His speed and Jackson’s ability to push the ball down field could be a wonderful combination that leads to several big weeks for a guy who should slide into your roster as a WR3 or WR4. 
  • DJ Chark (Owned in 11.8%) – It seems that the Jaguars offense churns out sleepers and busts at a similar rate, but Chark was a major contributor for an offense that lost its QB early. Despite having Dede Westbrook and Marqise Lee ahead of him on the depth chart, Chark showed off the skills that had him a popular breakout candidate last year. He’s a long shot to produce every week, but one that as a bench piece is a nice addition. 
  • Terry McLaurin (OWned in 7.3%) – I own McLaurin in a few leagues, and have highlighted him on my breakout lists already, but the rookie picked up a big boost following Washington’s decision to cut Josh Doctson, and he did the most with his looks on Sunday to the tune of 125 yards and a trip to the endzone. He has to remain efficient if he’s going to be startable, but if he’s half as good as we saw yesterday, he could be the top option in this offense in no time. 

Tight End

  • Mark Andrews (Owned in 51%) – Andrews has teased, but despite how loud the buzz was surrounding him all preseason, he still finds himself a free agent in 49% of ESPN leagues. Add him now, he’ll be a big part of that Ravens offense going forward.
  • Jimmy Graham (Owned in 47.6%) – He’s long been a divisive name among fantasy players, as many have chased the upside he showed in New Orleans, but this year may be the year he becomes a big part of the Green Bay passing offense. There’s been plenty of buzz surrounding players like Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Geronimo Allison, but it’s Graham who Rodgers looks to in the red zone when Adams is blanketed. Expect a few down weeks, as any backend TE 1 is likely to have, but if you need a TE, he should pay off in spades.
  • T.J. Hockenson (Owned in 30.%) – I’ve been wishy-washy on Hockenson all off season long, sticking to my guns that rookie TE’s typically disappoint, but I ended up drafting him a few times, and it looks like he may contribute more than I expected. With the position being shallow, it’s never a bad idea to stash a high upside youngster on the bench in hopes that you have the next Kittle or Kelce, so Hockenson is an obvious add if you have the bench space to do so.

 

Week 1 – Sunday Recap

While there’s still a few Monday Night Football games to be played, we like to take our time on Monday morning to see what we got right, and what we missed wide left on. Of course, playing Daily Fantasy early in the season is a crap shoot, but we’ll start there.

Daily Fantasy – Hits and Misses

Quarter Backs: Nick Foles was injured early in week 1, so we’ll ignore his results for the time being. Besides him, we split the week with a hit on Lamar Jackson, who did damage through the air thanks to his big play rookie Marquise Brown, and we missed bad on Jameis Winston, who threw three picks against a 49ers defense we still don’t think should be very good this year.

Running Backs: It was tough sledding for both Matt Brieda and Chris Carson, who both failed to rush for more than 4 yards per carry despite having the most touches in each respective backfield. Cincinnati has what looks to be a decent defense this year, but I only managed to hit on the easiest of the three; Saquon Barkley. Still, with Dallas up big, he didn’t get nearly the number of touches he needed. Still, Saquon looks like he’s a safe play nearly every week in DFS formats.

Wide ReceiversWoof, I really missed big on this one. Hill may have had a decent week had he not left injured, as Watkins stepped into the league receiver role and had a monster day. But aside from Godwin finding pay dirt to salvage his day, it was a three and out for me one receivers. Trey Quinn managed a handful of receptions, but was overshadowed by one of my favorite rookie receivers in Terry McLaurin, who was lights out in his NFL debut.

Tight EndsI was close with my tight ends, as Engram certainly turned in a monster performance, and Engram and Uzumoah were targeted plenty given their DFS cost. It seems that year after year, I hit mostly on tight ends, but this is a position that can easily be glossed over. Engram looks like a legit threat to finish in the top 3 at the position again this year, and when the Giants play a capable offense, he’s a must start until his DFS cost catches up to his usage.

Injury Updates:

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City WR – If you’re like me, and you drafted him in spite of his karmic comeuppance, you may be kicking yourself following his hospitalization following a shoulder injury in week 1. It’s reported it won’t require surgery, but he’ll likely miss several weeks. Sammy Watkins clearly steps in as the top option, but Kelce and Mecole Hardman could see an uptick in usage over the next few weeks.

Nick Foles, Jacksonville QB: Another shoulder injury, another wasted draft pick for Dr. Fantasy. Foles left Sundays game early with what appears to be a broken clavical. This is an injury that will require a lengthy recovery, but Minshew seemed to play alright in relief.

Tevin Coleman, San Francisco RB – Another Dr. Fantasy draft pick (sensing a trend here?) and another week 1 injury. Coleman injured his ankle in Sundays contest and was ruled out. There’s precious little news surrounding the injury, but head coach Kyle Shanahan was quoted as being “concerned” in advance of the RB’s MRI today. We’ll know more later, but Brieda could be in line for a much larger workload going forward.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati RB – Would you believe this is another Dr. Fantasy RB? Of course you could, because Mixon also left Sunday’s contest with an ankle injury. While he is also slated for an MRI, sources close to the team suggest they believe it’s only an ankle sprain, and a lengthy injury seems unlikely.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers WR – One of the prime breakout candidates, Mike Williams has an uphill battle to climb after suffering a knee injury in the Chargers week one contest. Not much is known about the severity of the injury, but he did not return to the game. Keep an eye on this one, as the depth chart beyond Keenan Allen is a bit shallow, and someone likely on the waivers will become a surprise asset should Williams miss time.

Juju Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh WR – In case you thought my rosters were done with injuries, Juju found himself with a toe injury in the last few meaningless minutes against the Patriots last night. There’s optimism that it’s minor and he’ll be good to go in week 2, but it’s something to watch in case it lingers late into the week.

Devin Funchess, Indianapolis WR – Funchess will likely undergo surgery for a broken collarbone suffered in yesterdays action. He wasn’t a likely breakout candidate following Luck’s retirement, but for those who invested in Funchess as a potential TD maven, it’s likely he’ll miss a large portion of the season.

 

Week One DFS

As in the past, we’ll provide our analysis at each position based on tier. With a DraftKings salary of $50,000 for standard daily leagues (I don’t play on FanDuel so we’ll use the DK salaries as a baseline), you have around $5,500 per player, which means we have to be judicious with our signings.

Quarterbacks

$$$: Jameis Winston ($6,600): Of the higher priced QB’s, I like Winston’s chances of turning in a good week against a sub par 49er’s defense. Their offense feels like a pass first group led by an excellent tandem at WR in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and while HC Bruce Arians has been complimentary of his backfield, I don’t feel Barber and Jones are good enough to keep Winston from having to throw it often in week 1.

$$: Lamar Jackson ($6,000): Despite my cautions surrounding Jackson in season long leagues, I like him in week one to revert to running the ball, especially facing a solid secondary in Miami. If he calls his own number 12 or so times, he’s a lock for 6-10 points just from ground yards, plus whatever he manages to put in the end zone.

$: Nick Foles ($5,300): The Jags are likely to have a top 5 defense again this year, but that may not matter as they drew the short straw with a week one match up against a Kansas City offense that’s going to be tough to stop for anyone. With the potential for big points on the other side of the field, Foles is going to be called on to make plays early and often in this one. Garbage time points still count the same as clutch time points in fantasy.

Running Backs

$$$: Saquon Barkley ($9,000): The Cowboys represent one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, and with a receiver corps that’s going to be limited early in the season, Barkley is going to be called on to do a lot in week one. I expect a ton of touches in the backfield, and he’ll be used heavily in the passing game as well. At $9,000, he’s one of the more expensive adds, but he’s just too good to ignore even at that price.

$$: Chris Carson ($5,700): If one thing is true this year, it’s that the Seahawks are going to run the ball a ton. Carson may not be the defacto bell-cow he was last year as Rashaad Penny matures, but Cincinnati represents the kind of opponent that should play to Seattle’s strengths, and in particular, that of Chris Carson. With a receiving corps in Seattle that’s more questions than answers, and a defense facing them that’s ranked in the bottom half of the league, expect Carson to put up decent numbers and maybe find the end zone once or twice.

$: Matt Brieda ($4,000): Currently sitting atop the depth chart, Brieda is one of the better values in daily fantasy in week one. If the game stays close, Brieda showed he’s efficient enough to do damage with limited touches, especially against a poor rushing defense, but if the game goes to the air, I feel he could contribute regardless. With little risk but a ton of reward, he’s a guy I’m targeting for a lot of lineups this week.

Wide Receivers

$$$: Tyreek Hill ($7,600): Despite the Jaguar’s defense ranking in the top 5 against receivers, I like Hill to have a big week as his blend of speed and Mahomes big arm is too much for any defense to contain for 4 quarters. If the rest of the offense get’s bottled up, it’s the kind of down the field play that Hill is known for that tends to pop up in the game plan. Even if the Jaguars keep the rest of the Chiefs weapons from being efficient, Hill only needs a few looks to turn plays into home runs.

$$: Chris Godwin ($6,200): I’d consider Mike Evans as well, but Godwin is cheap considering he should see a large volume of the teams targets nearly every week. Unlike Evans who’s a home run hitter with high YPC numbers, Godwin could very well approach 10-15 targets any given week, and against a poor secondary, he’s a lock to have heavy volume early on.

$: Trey Quinn ($3,400): It’s not the kind of offense you’d want to over invest in, but against the worst ranked passing defense, and with no real top receiving option, we defer to the teams unofficial depth chart which lists Quinn as a starter. With the ball needing to go somewhere, we like Quinn’s chances of being a target hog this week. I don’t expect the ceiling to be immense, but he’s a safe floor if you need an ultra cheap option to fit a player like Barkley into your lineup.

Tight End

$$$: George Kittle ($6,600): There may seem like there’s a lot of mouths to feed in San Fransisco, but with Jimmy G just returning from season ending injury and Dante Pettis nicked up, the 49ers would be wise to use their elite receiving TE early and often in week 1. This game could easily turn into a shootout, and Kittle is going to be fed his fair share of targets.

$$: Evan Engram ($4,800): His career has been a roller coaster, but we’ve seen how well he performs when he becomes the focal point of the passing game. OBJ is gone, Tate is suspended, Shepard is returning from injury, and the rest of the bunch are just too unproven to be leaned on too heavily. While Saquon will shoulder the burden, Engram is a safe bet to outperform most of his predictions, at least until Tate returns in week 5.

$: C.J. Uzomah ($2,600): Strangely enough, it’s not Tyler Eifert that’s listed as the starter at TE according to the Bengals unofficial depth chart. It’s Uzomah, who is one of the least expensive “starters” on draft kings. We’ve mentioned previously how the Bengal’s offense may look a little different early on with the absence of AJ Green. I’m not confident in John Ross as a leading man, so behind Boyd and Mixon, Uzomah might get more work than you’d think, especially in the red zone. Eifert may be used as well, but I find it telling that he’s no longer listed as their starter on their on website.

D/ST: Los Angeles Chargers ($3,000): There’s no advantage to saving on your D/ST since most of them are around the $3,000 mark. Still, it’s clear that the DK algorithm hasn’t account for Andrew Luck’s retirement, as the Chargers are listed 10th. Not only do they have an excellent defense, but that front seven will be facing Jacoby Brissett, who has had precious little time to prepare as the starter. It’s unlikely that you’ll see a D/ST value like this for the rest of the year.

First Day Trending

It’s been a hectic couple of weeks and we’ve been unable to provide you our unique brand of fantasy analysis, but we’re back to rectify that. Our weekly DFS article will be delayed somewhat, but we’ll hopefully post our Sunday games targets, so keep an eye out for that.

For now, we’ll take a final look at players who are trending up and trending down, and touch on a few major pieces of NFL news that broke over the last few weeks.

Three Up

Zeke Elliot, RB – Dallas CowboysYes, this one is low hanging fruit, but with the anxiety everyone felt during the first rounds of their draft, it’s important to remind you that Zeke Elliott is one of the three best fantasy assets in all of football. Even though he didn’t play a snap for the team in pre-season action or see the field in practice, he’s a set it and forget it player who should see massive volume all year long.

Devin Singletary, RB – Buffalo Bills: We teased the possibility previously, but reading the headlines following LeSean McCoy’s release was shocking nonetheless. While Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon will demand work, Singletary went from being a later round project to being considered the top back in the Bills committee. As a third round pick, it’s clear the team wants to involve him heavily, so don’t be surprised if he carves out a solid role for himself.

Evan Engram, TE – New York GiantsI’ve been pretty vocal about my support for Eli Manning sans Odell Beckham, and while he’s still unlikely to perform in the top 15 at the position, it’s very likely he’s a more efficient passer in 2019 thanks to an improved offensive line and less reliance on forced throws to OBJ. Engram is the most likely to benefit from these factors, as injury and suspension means he’ll likely be the top passing target for Manning this year. We watched him finish atop the position a few years ago in a similar environment, so expecting a top 5 finish at the position is far from a difficult ask.

Honorable Mention: With the news that Jerick McKinnon will likely miss the season, Matt Brieda sees a sizable jump after being placed atop the team depth chart ahead of it’s week one match up. I still feel Coleman should be used heavily, but Brieda could easily work into the RB2 conversation.

Three Down

The Colts Receiving GroupIt’s not their fault that Andrew Luck hung em up following an injury riddled career, but the truth is that with Brissett stepping in on short notice, there’s going to be a tough transition period early in the season. Hilton is likely to continue being a focal point for the office, but even he deserves to fall a few spots in your rankings. Guys like Parris Campbell and Ebron/Doyle need to feel the hammer too as their roles are further reduced until we see how Brissett handles the lead role this year.

N’Keal Harry, WR – New England PatriotsHe looked like he may be in for a sizable rookie workload when the Pats brought him in with a first round pick, but the decision to play him early in the preseason despite some lingering injury issues may have led to the IR trip he’ll be taking. While he’s expected back sometime this season, he’ll miss a chunk of games, lending to the idea that he won’t contribute much this year regardless.

Deebo Samuel, WR – San Francisco 49ersOne of the more popular early offseason breakout candidates, Samuel may be a bit behind the curve after seeing the most recent 49ers depth chart. Currently sitting behind Pettis, Goodwin, and Kendrick Bourne, Samuel may not see enough snaps to be worth rostering early in the season. Of course, Pettis and Goodwin have a history of injury, so if a spot opens up, the rookie could see his usage bounce back. Still, temper your expectations early on.

Honorable Mention: It seemed like fate when Duke Johnson slid onto the top of the Texans’ depth chart following a season ending injury to Lamar Miller, but suddenly, he’ll face competition from a former teammate in Carlos Hyde. The two players couldn’t be more opposite, as Hyde profiles as a early down player and Johnson as a top flight pass catcher, but it means fewer touches for Johnson, who was beginning to look like a sneak RB2 candidate. Of course, Hyde could bomb in Houston, but I have to dock Johnson a bit until we know.

Andrew Luck to Retire

luckIt’s been a roller coaster career for the former top overall selection, but all the peaks and valley’s were nothing compared to the news today that at 30 years old, Andrew Luck is set to retire from the NFL.

The news certainly comes as a shock, and if you spent on Indianapolis in your early fantasy drafts, it complicates things. Of course, while the entire offense can expect to feel the effects of his retirement, it impacts the receivers group the most.

T.Y. Hilton will likely continue to be a top target, likely for Jacoby Brissett, but rookie Parris Campell and Devin Funchess are larger question marks as the offense will certainly take on a different feel.

I’ve been cautioning regression for Ebron all offseason, so it should come as no surprise that I still think you should avoid him, even at a discount. Doyle’s value is still somewhat there, but temper your expectations for any of Indianapolis’ offensive stars, including Mack and Hines, who should still be used similarly, but likely to lesser effect.

Good luck to those who’ve found their teams in shambles before the season has even started; take solace in knowing the meme’s should be glorious.

Panic Time: Trouble With AB In Oakland

AnBrownIt’s a popular term of endearment when referring to NFL wide receivers: Diva. Antonio Brown is proving to be one of the leagues bigger ones during his first preseason in Oakland by a far margin.

First it was the issue with his feet; frost bite earned in a largely unproven cryo-technology, due especially to his neglecting to wear proper protective gear.

Then it was the disappearance at camp that had everyone wondering where Antonio Brown went, even his coaching staff.

But most recently, and in the end most importantly, is the fight between AB and the league over the use of his old helmet. Brown has threatened to “retire” if he’s not allowed to wear the helmet he’s worn prior to this season, going so far as to threaten litigation for injury incurred while wearing the league approved helmet.

In response, the league has re-iterated it’s policy regarding approved equipment. Suffice it to say, if Brown is serious about holding out, the NFL isn’t interested in negotiating.

So where does that leave the fantasy community? Already, mock draft results are reflecting his potential hold out/retirement. At this very moment, he’s being drafted in the middle of the third round, and falling. If I had to make a decision in that spot, I’d personally pass. There’s been far too many red flags over the last few months for me to trust him. But does he become a value at that point?

If you think there’s more smoke than fire here, AB in the third round, regardless of the jersey he’s wearing, is a steal. The Raiders brought him in to be the alpha in that offense, and he’s expected to soak up a large percentage of the teams targets. A quick look at the depth chart reinforces that idea.

  • Tyrell Williams
  • J.J. Nelson
  • Ryan Grant
  • Hunter Renfrow
  • Marcell Atemane
  • Darren Waller

There’s not a superstar in waiting behind him that can step in and be the guy. There’s a who’s who of role players, brought in to compliment what the Raiders expected would be one of the leagues best receivers in 2019.

If Brown does hold out, I certainly see a bit of a bump for Josh Jacobs, who may be asked to shoulder a larger role. In the passing game, I’ve been a big fan of Renfrow from the beginning, and with Brown out, his brand of over-the-middle slot work may be used to remedy they situation some what.

I expect to know more as we inch toward the season, but draft Antonio Brown at your own peril. The man seems hell bent on proving a point, much like former teammate Le’Veon Bell, and I’m not going to hitch my wagon to his whims, and nor should you.