Blog Archives

Home Stretch: ADP Preview Rounds 11-20

You’re confident in your strategy, and you have your core guys targeted and queued up. You’re prepared to supplement the foundation with high upside guys in the middle rounds, and you’re wondering what you can add in the late rounds to help define your team during bye weeks and injuries. Let’s take a look at the more confusing rounds featuring players you may not know to players you may not want.

Round 11

  • Aaron Jones, RB – GB
  • Jared Goff, QB – LAR
  • Jamaal Williams, RB – GB
  • Robby Anderson, WR – NYJ
  • C.J. Anderson, RB – CAR
  • Jaguars D/ST
  • Ben Roethlisberger, QB – PIT
  • Sterling Shepard, WR – NYG
  • Matt Ryan, QB – ATL
  • Jack Doyle, TE – IND

Player I Love: The hype surrounding Neslon Agholor subsided quickly during a rookie year that was rocky to say the least. Last year, though, he and Wentz developed the kind of chemistry that could help push him into the WR2 category. While you’ll have to live with a few weeks of sub par performances, as a flex starter or backup WR, the potential for 800 yards and 8-10 TDs is hard to pass up.

Player I Hate: I will use this as a platform to decry the drafters that feel it’s necessary to draft a defense earlier than round 15. Instead of wasting a pick this early, draft skill position players and stream a defense drafted at the end of your draft.

Round 12

  • Nick Chubb, RB – CLE
  • Nelson Agholor, WR – PHI
  • Rams D/ST
  • Philip Rivers, QB – LAC
  • Kelvin Benjamin, WR – BUF
  • Patrick Mahomes, QB – KC
  • Devontae Booker, RB – DEN
  • D’Onta Foreman, RB – HOU
  • Ty Montgomery, RB – GB
  • Allen Hurns, WR – DAL

Player I Love: As the QB 12 in the 12th round, Mahomes provides the kind of excitment you’re missing with the other QB’s in this area. The talent around him is elite, the ability and athletisim is off the charts, and Kansas City turned milquetoast Alex Smith into an elite Fantasy option. Draft with confidence.

Player I Hate: Devontae Booker seemed for a moment to be on the verge of breaking out. Now he’s  fighting for touches with rookie Royce Freeman, who is better suited for the full time gig. While the potential may be there for Booker to see touches, his talent doesn’t scream “draft me” even at this point in the draft.

Round 13

  • Vikings D/ST
  • Stephen Gostkowski, K – NE
  • George Kittle, TE – SF
  • Greg Zuerlein, K – LAR
  • Dez Bryant, WR – Free Agent
  • Eagles D/ST
  • Tyler Eifert, TE – CIN
  • Marcus Mariota, QB – TE
  • Justin Tucker, K – BAL
  • Dak Prescott, QB – DAL

Player I Love: George Kittle may have not been on your radar last off season, but this year he should be. With an up and coming offense devoid of any real red zone targets besides, Kittle could be in line for a big work load. Currently atop the depth chart for the TE position, expect a low end TE1 season for the 2nd year pro.

Player I Hate: Dak Prescott is a player that I want to like, I try to like, but I just can’t bring myself to overlook the issues Dallas has to deal with. With no real number one receiver and a run game that’s going to get all the work it can handle, Dak is a talented QB without many avenues to fantasy greatness. I could be wrong but there are better options out there if you prefer to wait on a QB.

Round 14

  • Derek Carr, QB – OAK
  • O.J. Howard, TE – TB
  • Marqise Lee, WR – JAC
  • D.J. Moore, WR – CAR
  • Calvin Ridley, WR – ATL
  • David Njoku, TE – CL
  • Kenny Stills, WR – MIA
  • Cameron Meredith, WR – NO
  • Jameis Winston, QB – TB
  • Martavis Bryant, WR – OAK

Player I Love: Cameron Meredith was a top sleeper pick last year in Chicago, and that was with journeyman Mike Glennon slated to be his starting QB. Unfortunately, the talented wide out suffered a season ending injury and didn’t play a snap. This off season he popped up in New Orleans, and I expect him to gobble up a fair amount of looks. While Michael Thomas is fully entrenched as the #1, Meredith will provide an upgrade over Ted Ginn as an every day player.

Player I Hate: Marqise Lee may look like the heir apparent to the departed Allen Robinson, but I’d argue that he’s reached his ceiling and other players in that offense are better suited to carry the load. Between late season hero Keelan Cole and rookie Dede Westbrook, Lee has his work cut out for him if he wants to earn the lions share of targets, and I doubt he’ll accomplish that goal.

Round 15

  • Chargers D/ST
  • Alex Smith, QB – WAS
  • Texans D/ST
  • Giovani Bernard, RB – CIN
  • Corey Clement, RB – PHI
  • LeGarrette Blount, RB – DET
  • Mike Williams, WR – LAC
  • Doug Martin, RB – Oak
  • Ravens D/ST
  • Broncos D/ST

Player I Love: Mike Williams is a name that you’ve no doubt seen pop up on sleeper boards all off season and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t buying into the hype. With mediocre players behind him on the depth chart and an injury prone Keenan Allen the only real obstacle away from WR1 looks, there’s not much keeping him from being fantasy relevant right out of the gates.

Player I Hate: LeGarrette Blount has had more fools gold seasons in his career than I’d care to admit falling for, and this year he’s off my list of potential starters for that reason. That uneasy feeling you get when preparing to select Blount stems from the fact that he can’t catch the football and the Lions have more talented backs on that roster already. While he may be inline for a ton of goal line work, rookie Kerryon Johnson and Theo Riddick are the two players I want from this backfield.

Round 16

  • Chris Carson, RB – SEA
  • Rishard Matthews, WR – TEN
  • Bilal Powell, RB – NYJ
  • Josh Doctson, WR – WAS
  • Latavius Murray, RB – MIN
  • Kenny Golladay, WR – DET
  • DeSean Jackson, WR – TB
  • Case Keenum, QB – DEN
  • James White, RB – NE
  • Wil Lutz, K – NO

Player I Love: Chris Carson is the forgotten man in Seattle after Mike Davis stole the thunder last year and Rashad Penny was added in an attempt to return Seattle to the 80s where smash mouth football was the norm. You know who hasn’t forgotten about Carson? Coach Pete Carroll, who’s gushed about how fantastic Carson has looked this off season. As a depth piece, Carson’s road to starting touches is a fairly straightforward one, and with very little risk to boot.

Player I Hate: Kenny Golladay may still have some sheen after last years pre-season feeding frenzy, but don’t be fooled by the feelings you may still harbor towards him. Marvin Jones is the true threat down the sidelines and Golden Tate will eat up a ton of targets himself. Without enough to go around, Golladay will be the mouth left hungry.

Round 17

  • Jake Elliot, K – Phi
  • Theo Riddick, RB – DET
  • Nyheim Hines, RB – IND
  • Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE – JAC
  • Harrison Butker, K – KC
  • Eli Manning, QB – NYG
  • Cameron Brate, TE – TB
  • Panthers D/ST
  • Matt Bryant, K – ATL
  • Robbie Gould, K – SF

Player I Love: He’s been on my sleeper list more than once, but I can’t shake the feeling that a healthy and sober Austin Seferian-Jenkins is in a position to blow up this year. With as much talent as anyone else at the position not named Gronkowski, ASJ will have the chance to prove himself in Jacksonville this year as the starter. While I don’t expect a top 5 finish, he’s certainly in the conversation as a low end TE1.

Player I Hate: At some point, Cameron Brate had to be on the outs in Tampa Bay. With O.J. Howard comfortable after a full season, it’s likely that the offense transitions towards him in the coming months. Couple that with the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t target either tight end much in the games he played, and Brate may be better suited for the back of a milk carton than the bench of a fantasy team.

Round 18

  • Saints D/ST
  • Patriots D/ST
  • Chris Boswell, K – PIT
  • Mitch Trubisky, QB – CHI
  • Paul Richardson, WR – WAS
  • Michael Gallup, WR – DAL
  • Hayden Hurst, TE – BAL
  • Kenneth Dixon, RB – BAL
  • Blake Bortles, QB – JAC
  • Matt Prater, K – DET

Player I Love: While you’re firmly in the “drop in case of waiver wire pickup” stages of the draft, Michael Gallup presents real upside as a potential top receiver in Dallas. The rookie out of Colorado State is in the mix for the targets vacated by Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. In the 18th round, having a potential top receiver available seems criminal, and I’ll be jumping on Gallup as often as I can this draft season.

Player I Hate: I don’t hate Hayden Hurst the player, but I hate Hayden Hurst the Baltimore tight end. There hasn’t been much success for Baltimore tight ends since Dennis Pitta’s career was cut short, and with Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams on the roster siphoning plays, Hurst has too high a mountain to climb for me to feel comfortable drafting him at all.

Round 19

  • Christian Kirk, WR – ARI
  • Dan Bailey, K – DAL
  • Courtland Sutton, WR – DEN
  • Frank Gore, RB – MIA
  • Mohamed Sanu, WR – ATL
  • Matt Brieda, RB – SF
  • Steelers D/ST
  • Eric Ebron, TE – IND
  • Jared Cook, TE – OAK
  • Tyrod Taylor, QB – CLE

Player I Love: It’s reasonable to be concerned about Tyrod Taylor’s job security, after all Baker Mayfield was drafted first overall. That would be to ignore the very loud proclamation that regardless of Mayfield’s presence on the roster, Taylor is the guy this year. Looking at the weapons both at wide receiver and in the backfield, there’s no better last round QB in my mind for real fantasy production.

Player I Hate: I’ll admit I’m guilty of hyping up Matt Brieda last year, as I incorrectly assumed Carlos Hyde wouldn’t handle passing downs. Now, he’s stuck behind an even better pass catcher in Jerick McKinnon. While Brieda may have some NFL talent, there’s little daylight in terms of fantasy value here. If McKinnon goes down, he’s a waiver option, but not worth carrying in standard leagues.

Round 20

  • Baker Mayfield, QB – CLE
  • Andy Dalton, QB – CIN
  • Ted Ginn, WR – NO
  • Tyler Lockett, WR – SEA
  • Dede Westbrook, WR – JAC
  • Austin Ekeler, RB – LAC
  • Mason Crosby, K – GB
  • Josh Rosen, QB – ARI
  • Lamar Jackson, QB – BAL
  • Vance McDonald, TE – PIT

Player I Love: We mentioned it early with Marqise Lee (spoiler alert, I don’t like him as a #1) but Dede Westbrook is a guy that I look at with massive upside in an offense that seems to never have stability at it’s wide receiver position. While it’s typically useless to extrapolate previous years stats, it’s important to note that the young WR’s numbers over a full 16 games would have been 774 yards on 61 catches; and now he has less competition for targets.

Player I Hate: Lamar Jackson, in my eyes, is more of a project then a polished, NFL ready passer. With Joe Flacco still the starter, it’s unlikely Jackson sees extended time this season, and even if he does, there’s very little chance he excels in what would be a dismal situation. In dynasty leagues he’s a flier, but in redraft or short term keeper leagues, he’s best left to the waiver wire.

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Heart of The Order: ADP Round 4-10 Preview

Winning your league takes understanding the value’s at each of the tiers. Everyone get’s to pick a few high end starters in those early rounds, but what you do here, in rounds 4-10 can mean the difference between playoff hopeful and championship contender. (PPR ADP Data supplied by Fantasypros.com)

Round 4

  • Doug Baldwin, WR – SEA
  • T.Y. Hilton, WR – IND
  • Zach Ertz, TE – PHI
  • Derrick Henry, RB – TEN
  • Stefon Diggs, WR – MIN
  • Amari Cooper, WR – OAK
  • Kenyan Drake, RB – MIA
  • Josh Gordon, WR – CLE
  • Jay Ajayi, RB – PHI
  • Alex Collins, RB – BAL

Player I Love: I’m aiming to get a piece of that Minnesota offense, and Diggs is the player I’m targeting. With Cousin’s big arm, Diggs could have a monster year.

Player I Hate: Kenyan Drake had a nice little finish to 2017, and it looked for a moment like he may be a breakout candidate for 2018. Then Miami added Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage to the stable. Neither guy projects as a 3 down workhorse, but in the fourth round, they inhibit Drake from being a true stud.

Round 5

  • Rashad Penny, RB – SEA
  • Allen Robinson, WR – CHI
  • Larry Fitzgerald, WR – ARI
  • Deshaun Watson, QB – HOU
  • Juju Smith-Schuster, WR – PIT
  • Derrius Guice, RB – WAS
  • Demaryius Thomas, WR – DEN
  • Mark Ingram, RB – NO
  • Brandin Cooks, WR – LAR
  • Russell Wilson, QB – SEA

Player I Love: The fifth round features two rookie RB’s that I love as Penny and Guice figure to act as feature backs for two teams that will likely run the ball a lot. Both have the talent and the opportunity to be top 15 backs.

Player I Hate: Mark Ingram has been polarizing among fantasy owners in his brief time in the NFL thanks to injury concerns and lack of work, but with Kamara emerging and the four game suspension keeping him out for 25% of the fantasy season, there’s no chance I take Ingram this early in drafts.

Round 6

  • Jarvis Landry, WR – CLE
  • Alshon Jeffrey, WR – PHI
  • Golden Tate, WR – DET
  • Lamar Miller, RB – HOU
  • Jimmy Graham, TE – GB
  • Tom Brady, QB – NE
  • Sony Michel, RB – NE
  • Evan Engram, TE – NYG
  • Greg Olsen, TE – CAR
  • Ronald Jones, RB – TB

Player I love: I’ve heard a lot of talk about Jimmy Graham as a potential bust, and I imagine it has to do with Green Bay’s history of not really using it’s tight ends. I’d argue it’s because Rodgers never had a weapon like Graham. I expect him and Adams to both put together top 5 seasons at their positions.

Player I Hate: Maybe it’s because I’m still bitter about the super bowl, but Tom Brady is 40 years old and has never had an off season like this one. On the field, he’ll likely win 12 games, but for your fantasy team he may hold you back as inconsistency should plague the Patriots this year.

Round 7

  • Carson Wentz, QB – PHI
  • Marvin Jones, WR – DET
  • Cam Newton, QB – CAR
  • Dion Lewis, RB – TEN
  • Drew Brees, QB – NO
  • Delanie Walker, TE – TEN
  • Kyle Rudolph, TE – MIN
  • Tevin Coleman, RB – ATL
  • Kirk Cousins, QB – MIN
  • Michael Crabtree, WR – BAL

Player I love: Marvin Jones Jr is being ranked currently as the WR25 after finishing 11th at the position last year. Matt Stafford still likes to sling the ball, and Jones has proven that he’s the most reliable down the field target in the offense. 1,000 yards and 8 TDs is a safe floor.

Player I Hate: Dion Lewis is a fantastic satellite back, but for some reason he’s being drafted based on his 2017 season in which the then-Patriot finished as a RB1. Now, he’s playing second fiddle to a superior back in Derrick Henry, and yet folks expect him to put up 1,000 + combined yards again. Don’t bet on it.

Round 8

  • Corey Davis, WR – TEN
  • Will Fuller, WR – HOU
  • Sammy Watkins, WR – KC
  • Devin Funchess, WR – CAR
  • Marshawn Lynch, RB – OAK
  • Carlos Hyde, RB – CLE
  • Chris Hogan, WR – NE
  • Julien Edelman, WR – NE
  • Marlon Mack, RB – IND
  • Robert Woods, WR – LAR

Player I Love: I have to give a whole lot of love to the two wide outs at the top of the round as Corey Davis and Will Fuller both have the potential to be top 20 WR’s. With Davis entering the year finally healthy and Fuller being reunited with Watson (whom he scored a ton of points with), neither guy is getting the respect they deserve.

Player I Hate: Marshawn Lynch may go down in history as one of the most entertaining backs of his generation, but the writing is on the wall for the aging back. With plenty of miles on his wheels, the Raiders brought in former Buc’s back Doug Martin to compete for the job. While both guys lack any excitement, Lynch’s time as a bell cow back is over.

Round 9

  • Jordan Reed, TE – WAS
  • Tarik Cohen, RB – CHI
  • Matthew Stafford, QB – DET
  • Royce Freeman, RB – DEN
  • Kerryon Johnson, RB – DET
  • Emmanuel Sanders, WR – DEN
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB – SF
  • Pierre Garcon, WR – SF
  • Isaiah Crowell, RB – NYJ
  • Chris Thompson, RB – WAS

Player I Love: Pierre Garcon may not be a threat to break the top 10 at WR, but in PPR leagues especially, his ability to get open from the slot will mean a ton of targets for the veteran. His 67 targets through 8 games may be a bit on the high end, but 120 total targets are within reach.

Player I Hate: This one is a bit of a stretch as these middle round picks aren’t make or break, but Jordan Reed is still being drafted as a top 10 TE despite missing 14 games over the last two seasons. As an injury risk, drafting Reed is precarious at best, and should be avoided if at all possible.

Round 10

  • Cooper Kupp, WR – LAR
  • Devante Parker, WR – MIA
  • Andrew Luck, QB – IND
  • Trey Burton, TE – CHI
  • Jamison Crowder, WR – WAS
  • Jordy Nelson, WR – OAK
  • Marquise Goodwin, WR – SF
  • Duke Johnson, RB – CLE
  • Rex Burkhead, RB – NE
  • Randall Cobb, WR – GB

Player I Love: Devante Parker has flashed before, but with the issues under center last year seriously disappointed fantasy owners who invested in him. I say ignore the feelings of discomfort and bet on his talent. With all the targets up for grabs, and Tannehill back under center, Parker could see 40-60 more targets this year.

Player I Hate: Jordy Nelson was once the cream of the NFL crop when it came to high end fantasy receivers. Now he’ll be a third option at best in an offense that struggled last year to find traction in it’s passing game. With Cooper and Bryant miles ahead of Nelson in terms of athletic ability and talent, it’ll be tough sledding for the 33 year old vet.

 

Early Tight End Rankings

  1. Rob Gronkowski, NE
  2. Travis Kelce, KC
  3. Zach Ertz, PHI
  4. Jimmy Graham, GB
    • Graham has had several peaks and valleys since his time in New Orleans, but he finds himself in an ideal situation in Green Bay. As the teams best red zone target, double digit TD’s is a reasonable quest.
  5. Greg Olsen, CAR
  6. Kyle Rudolph, MIN
  7. Delanie Walker, TEN
  8. Jordan Reed, WAS
  9. Trey Burton, CHI
    • A contract with $22 million guaranteed is proof the Bears plan to use Burton heavily in the passing game. Beyond Allen Robinson, Burton could slide in as the #2 target for the young Mitch Trubisky.
  10. Evan Engram, NYG
  11. George Kittle, SF
  12. O.J. Howard, TB
    1. Howard only managed 26 catches last year, but his athleticism was on display through his 16.6 yards per reception and 6 TDs (that’s a score almost every 4!). He’s a big breakout candidate in his 2nd year.
  13. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, JAC
  14. Charles Clay, BUF
  15. David Njoku, CLE
  16. Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI
  17. Austin Hooper, ATL
  18. Jack Doyle, IND
  19. Eric Ebron, IND
    • By all accounts, Ebron looks like he’s adapting to the Colts offense well. While his talent never matched his on the field accomplishments, sometimes a change of scenery is all it takes for a player to pop.
  20. Virgil Green, LAC
  21. Jared Cook, OAK
  22. Tyler Eifert, CIN
  23. Hayden Hurst, BAL
  24. Ed Dickson, SEA
    • No longer playing second fiddle to Olsen in Carolina, Dickson has a great opportunity to produce in Seattle. On a roster that’s top heavy in the passing game, Dickson is sure to be involved heavily in the red zone. 
  25. Cameron Brate, TB
  26. Rico Gathers, DAL
  27. Vance McDonald, PIT
  28. Stephen Anderson, HOU
    • Anderson flashed at times, but still needs to prove he can be consistent enough to be worth rostering. The retirement of C.J. Feidorowicz means we’ll know sooner than later for the Houston TE. 
  29. Jesse James, PIT
  30. Luke Willson, DET
    • One of my favorite positional sleepers, Willson has all the athletic intangibles to be a contributing member of the passing game. Despite that, overcoming the organizational depth means fighting for touches with several good passing options.
  31. Mike Desicki, MIA
  32. Ben Watson, NO
  33. Gerald Everett, LAR
  34. Jake Butt, DEN
  35. Adam Shaheen, CHI

Early RB Rankings

  1. Todd Gurley, LAR
  2. Le’Veon Bell, PIT
  3. David Johnson, ARI
    • Despite missing most of last season and getting a new QB, Johnson remains a threat to be the #1 running back in PPR formats.
  4. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
  5. Melvin Gordon, LAC
  6. Alvin Kamara, NO
  7. Kareem Hunt, KC
  8. Leonard Fournette, JAC
    • With 1,340 yards on 300 touches, Fournette proved that he can be a three down back in the NFL. Now, after the departure of Hurns and Robinson, he may be asked to do even more.
  9. Saquon Barkley, NYG
  10. LeSean McCoy, BUF
  11. Devonta Freeman, ATL
  12. Dalvin Cook, MIN
  13. Joe Mixon, CIN
    • The questions surrounding Mixon have nothing to do with his talent, and everything to do with how Cincinnati destroys the value of it’s running backs seemingly every year. I’m cautiously optimistic that Mixon approaches 250 touches this year.
  14. Jerick McKinnon, SF
  15. Jordan Howard, CHI
  16. Christian McCaffrey, CAR
  17. Alex Collins, BAL
  18. Derrick Henry, TEN
  19. Derrius Guice, WAS
  20. Rashaad Penny, SEA
    • The noise out of Seattle is that they’re committed to getting their run game going again. The selection of Penny shows me that they’re serious. He may not have as much room to run behind that OL as other rookie backs, but he should have a large share of the touches.
  21. Lamar Miller, HOU
  22. Royce Freeman, DEN
  23. Kenyan Drake, MIA
  24. Sony Michel, NE
  25. Ronald Jones II, TB
  26. Marlon Mack, IND
    • No longer splitting carries with Frank Gore, Marlon Mack is the defacto lead back in this continuously dysfunctional offense. It’s likely he’ll cede passing down touches to Hines, but offers a ton of value at a very low risk pick.
  27. C. J. Anderson, CAR
  28. Jay Ajayi, PHI
  29. Mark Ingram, NO
  30. Tevin Coleman, ATL
  31. Marshawn Lynch, OAK
  32. Carlos Hyde, CLE
    • Hyde is the most polished runner on the Cleveland roster, but Chubb should keep him from finishing in the top 20. Don’t expect much work on 3rd down either with Duke Johnson owning that area.
  33. Isaiah Crowell, NYJ
  34. Kerryon Johnson, DET
  35. Aaron Jones, GB
  36. Chris Thompson, WAS
  37. Tarik Cohen, CHI
  38. Dion Lewis, TEN
  39. Duke Johnson, CLE
  40. Rex Burkhead, NE
    • Just when we thought Burkhead would be the guy in New England, the Pats signed Sony Michel in the first round. Best as a waiver wire pick up or late round stash in deep leagues.
  41. Jamaal Williams, GB
  42. Theo Riddick, DET
  43. Devontae Booker, DEN
  44. Ty Montgomery, GB
  45. Doug Martin, OAK
    • After finally wearing out his welcome, Martin joins a crowded Oakland backfield with a proven starter ahead of him. His value comes mostly as a handcuff for the aging Marshawn Lynch.
  46. D’Onta Foreman, HOU
  47. Chris Carson, SEA
  48. Bilal Powell, NYJ
  49. Nick Chubb, CLE
  50. LeGarrette Blount, DET

The ADP Game: Rounds 1-5

With the NFL season creeping ever closer, we’ll examine current consensus ADP data provided by Fantasypros.com to discuss the players we love and the players we hate based on where they’re being drafted. 

Round 1

  1. David Johnson, RB – ARI
  2. Le’Veon Bell, RB – PIT
  3. Antonio Brown, WR – PIT
  4. Julio Jones, WR – ATL
  5. LeSean McCoy, RB – BUF
  6. Odell Beckham Jr., WR – NYG
  7. Mike Evans, WR – TB
  8. Devonta Freeman, RB – ATL
  9. Melvin Gordon, RB – LAC
  10. A.J. Green, WR – CIN

Player I love – Mike Evans: It’s the first round so you can’t really complain about Evans being ranked as the 4th best WR, but the fact is he was better than anyone NOT named Antonio Brown on a per game basis and finished as the #1 WR in overall points in 2016. At 24 years old and the undisputed #1 weapon in an improving offense, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish on top of the WR pool.

Player I hate – Melvin Gordon: Gordon’s career so far has been polarizing to say the least. After not recording a TD in over 200 touches as a rookie, Gordon returned the investments of his faithful by finding pay dirt 10 times. Still, he finished with less than a 1,000 yards and a sub 4 YPC mark that doesn’t exactly instill confidence that he’ll return as a RB1. Being drafted as the 5th RB is far too rich for my blood.

Round 2

  1. DeMarco Murray, RB – TEN
  2. Jordy Nelson, WR – GB
  3. Jordan Howard, RB – CHI
  4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB – DAL
  5. Jay Ajayi, RB – MIA
  6. Michael Thomas, WR – NO
  7. Aaron Rodgers, QB – GB
  8. Dez Bryant, WR – DAL
  9. Todd Gurley, RB – LAR
  10. Rob Gronkowski, TE – NE

Player I love – Todd Gurley: On the flip side of the Melvin Gordon coin is Todd Gurley. After an abysmal season Gurley has fallen down draft boards to the end of the 2nd round, but this isn’t like Trent Richardson or other flash-in-the-pan backs of the last 10 years. Gurley is the real deal, and the Rams offense looks like it’s improved dramatically in the off season thanks to free agent signings and trades. As the 10th back off the board, I’m more than comfortable with Gurley as my #1.

Player I hate – Jay Ajayi: The skills are there to be a very good NFL back, but the shine from three 200 yard rushing performances has blinded his fans from the fact that he just wasn’t that great in the rest of his games. Check out this article at Fantasypros that shows how often Ajayi finished as a top 20 back (TL:DR folks… it’s not enough to justify the 15th over all pick).

Round 3

  1. Leonard Fournette, RB – JAC
  2. T.Y Hilton, WR – IND
  3. Tom Brady, QB – NE
  4. Amari Cooper, WR – OAK
  5. Marshawn Lynch, RB – OAK
  6. Lamar Miller, RB – HOU
  7. Doug Baldwin. WR – SEA
  8. Brandin Cooks, WR – NE
  9. Isaiah Crowell, RB – CLE
  10. Christian McCaffrey, RB – CAR

Player I love – Doug Baldwin: He’s not a sexy name but he’s a machine that hauls in just about everything thrown his way. Last year he finished with 94 catches for 1100 yards and a top 10 WR finish in standard leagues, and that’s with the first half issues at QB. Especially in PPR leagues, Baldwin is a lock for about 100 receptions and 1,100 yards again.

Player I Hate – Amari Cooper: Just to clarify, I don’t hate the player in general, but he’s still being drafted based on hype rather than statistics. While it’s fair to assume that he’ll eventually overtake Michael Crabtree as the more productive Oakland receiver, I still won’t spend a 3rd round pick on the teams 2nd best receiver over the past two seasons.

Round 4

  1. DeAndre Hopkins, WR – HOU
  2. Drew Brees, QB – NO
  3. Demaryius Thomas, WR – DEN
  4. Terrelle Pryor, WR – WAS
  5. Joe Mixon, RB – CIN
  6. Alshon Jeffery, WR – PHI
  7. Travis Kelce, TE – KC
  8. Carlos Hyde, RB – SF
  9. Dalvin Cook, RB – MIN
  10. Matt Ryan, QB – ATL

Player I love – Carlos Hyde: Hyde, on a per game basis, finished as the RB10 despite San Fransisco’s abysmal offense last year. This year, the needle is pointing up (ever so slightly) with the addition of high flying Kyle Shanahan to the offense. Don’t buy into the buzz that Hyde isn’t his guy; he’s the most talented back on this roster and will push for RB10 again this year.

Player I hate – Terrelle Pryor: I mean… it’s a fun story that Pryor has resurrected what looked like a lousy career by switching to WR but going from Cleveland where he was targeted 140 times to Washington where he’ll split looks with Doctson, Crowder, and Reed doesn’t really scream “better”. He’ll be good, but he won’t be round 4 good.

Round 5

  1. Keenan Allen, WR – LAC
  2. Allen Robinson, WR – JAC
  3. Spencer Ware, RB – KC
  4. Devante Adams, WR – GB
  5. Greg Olsen, TE – CAR
  6. Ty Montgomery, RB – GB
  7. Tyreek Hill, WR – KC
  8. Michael Crabtree, WR – OAK
  9. C. J. Anderson, RB – DEN
  10. Jarvis Landry, WR – MIA

Player I love – Michael Crabtree: When Crabtree was drafted with the 10th overall pick, there was little question surrounding his talent. Instead, he struggled out of the gates and eventually fell from favor in San Fransisco, leading him to his current home in Oakland. Since he’s been catching passes from Carr, Crabtree has finished as WR19 and WR11 and compiled a very nice stat line, yet he’s still being drafted far below his value. I won’t suggest he’ll finish as a WR1 but he’ll finish close.

Player I Hate – Ty Montgomery: This one is mind blowing to me as Montgomery wasn’t even very effective last year as a lead back, yet this year he finds himself being drafted as high as the 20th back off the board. I’ll say it now, there’s zero percent chance he finishes as a RB2, and even as a flex play he’s difficult to praise because his usage will likely be spotty and unpredictable. I won’t have Montgomery on a single team this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UPDATED: Top 50 Running Backs

2017 Running Back Rankings

Updated June 27th, 2017

Not much changed in the top 10 with only minor changes coming as a result of some consistency research. I’ve added 10 more to the list to even out the rankings as a top 50. We’ll add more next time.

  1. David Johnson, ARI (E)
  2. Le’Veon Bell, PIT (E)
  3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (E)
  4. LeSean McCoy, BUF (E)
  5. Jordan Howard, CHI (+1)
  6. Devonta Freeman, ATL (-1)
  7. Melvin Gordon, LAC (+1)
  8. DeMarco Murray, TEN (-1)
  9. Jay Ajayi, MIA (E)
  10. Todd Gurley, LAR (E)
  11. Lamar Miller, HOU (E)
  12. Carlos Hyde, SF (E)
  13. Leonard Fournette, JAC (E)
  14. Marshawn Lynch, OAK (+1)
  15. Isaiah Crowell, CLE (-1)
  16. C.J. Anderson, DEN (+1)
  17. Spencer Ware, KC (+2)
  18. Christian McCaffrey, CAR (-2)
  19. Mark Ingram, NO (-1)
  20. Joe Mixon, CIN (+1)
  21. Ameer Abdullah, DET (+3)
  22. Eddie Lacy, SEA (-2)
  23. Frank Gore, IND (+2)
  24. Tevin Coleman, ATL (-2)
  25. Ty Montgomery, GB (-2)
  26. LeGarrette Blount, PHI (+2)
  27. Dalvin Cook, MIN (-1)
  28. Mike Gillislee, NE (-1)
  29. Paul Perkins, NYG (+1)
  30. Doug Martin, TB (+3)
  31. Robert Kelley, WAS (E)
  32. Bilal Powell, NYJ (-3)
  33. Samaje Perine, WAS (+2)
  34. Danny Woodhead, BAL (-2)
  35. Theo Riddick, DET (+2)
  36. Matt Forte, NYJ (+3)
  37. Adrian Peterson, NO (+3)
  38. Latavius Murray, MIN (-2)
  39. Duke Johnson, CLE (+5)
  40. Jonathan Stewart, CAR (-6)
  41. Jeremy Hill, CIN (+5)
  42. C.J. Prosise, SEA (-1)
  43. Jamaal Charles, DEN (+2)
  44. Kenneth Dixon, BAL (-2)
  45. Terrance West, BAL (+4)
  46. Derrick Henry, TEN (-8)
  47. Jamaal Williams, GB (+5)
  48. Kareem Hunt, KC (-5)
  49. James White, NE (+2)
  50. Ryan Mathews, PHI (+6)

UPDATE: QB Rankings

Updated 6/26 (numbers in parenthasis are change in ranking from 6/1 rankings)
  1. Aaron Rodgers, GB (E)
  2. Tom Brady, NE (E)
  3. Drew Brees, NO (E)
  4. Matt Ryan, ATL (E)
  5. Andrew Luck, IND (E)
  6. Jameis Winston, TB (E)
  7. Kirk Cousins, WAS (E)
  8. Dak Prescott, DAL (+1)
  9. Russell Wilson, SEA (-1)
  10. Cam Newton, CAR (E)
  11. Derek Carr, OAK (+1)
  12. Tyrod Taylor, BUF (-1)
  13. Marcus Mariotta, TEN (+2)
  14. Philip Rivers, LAC (E)
  15. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (-2)
  16. Matthew Stafford, DET (E)
  17. Andy Dalton, CIN (E)
  18. Carson Wentz, PHI (+3)
  19. Eli Manning, NYG (E)
  20. Blake Bortles, JAC (-2)
  21. Ryan Tannehill, MIA (-1)
  22. Joe Flacco, BAL (E)
  23. Sam Bradford, MIN (+2)
  24. Carson Palmer, ARI (-1)
  25. Alex Smith, KC (-1)
  26. Deshaun Watson, HOU (E)
  27. Mike Glennon, CHI (+1)
  28. Paxton Lynch, DEN (+1)
  29. DeShone Kizer, CLE (-2)
  30. Cody Kessler, CLE (E)
  31. Jared Goff, LAR (+1)
  32. Josh McCown, NYJ (-1)
  33. Christian Hackenberg, NYJ (+2)
  34. Brian Hoyer, SF (-1)
  35. Mitch Trubisky, CHI (+3)
  36. Tom Savage, HOU (E)
  37. Trevor Siemian, DEN (-3)
  38. Patrick Mahomes, KC (+3)
  39. Jimmy Garoppolo, NE (+8)
  40. Landry Jones, PIT (+4)
  41. C.J. Beathard, SF (-1)
  42. Cardale Jones, BUF (-3)
  43. AJ McCarron, CIN (E)
  44. Drew Stanton, ARI (+1)
  45. Case Keenum, MIN (+1)
  46. Brock Osweiler, CLE (-9)
  47. Bryce Petty, NYJ (-5)