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Drafting A Contender: QB Series

ARodgersAs we continue to preach preparation here at Dr. Fantasy, we’ll shine our spotlight on the age old question of “when do you draft a QB?”

There’s plenty of different schools of thought on this one – I’m sure you’ve got the guy in your league who throws a second round pick at Aaron Rodgers every year. I’m not here to tell you that guy’s wrong. What I will tell you is that it’s often times far easier to secure a top 10 QB later in the draft while securing a stud RB or WR in that same spot than it is to hope you hit on all your mid round picks to make up for it.

There’s only a handful of QB’s that I’d consider “early” round picks. They are as follows:

  • Aaron Rodgers (ADP 23)
  • Tom Brady (ADP 29)
  • DeShaun Watson (ADP 46)
  • Carson Wentz (ADP 55)
  • Russell Wilson (ADP 56)
  • Cam Newton (ADP 58)

You can certainly waste an entire day arguing the merits of each of these QBs, but the fact is that if you want one of them, you have to prepare yourself to spend big time draft capital to acquire them.

Ignoring Wentz, Wilson, and Newton (because they all have decent value in the 6th round), we find ourselves debating second year QB DeShaun Watson, perennial #1 QB Aaron Rodgers, and a 41 year old Tom Brady.

Of this group only Aaron Rodgers is worth considering at their current draft point. Consider this; by selecting Rodgers at 23rd overall (his current ESPN draft price), you’re passing on the 2nd tier of receivers and the end of the starting running backs pool. Is it worth it to piece together a skill position group without a 2nd round pick? For an argument, here is what you can expect from Rodgers + an 11th round WR and what you can expect from 11th round Matt Stafford + a 2nd round receiver.

  • Aaron Rodgers (20.3 points per game) + DeSean Jackson (6.1 points per game)
  • Mike Evans (10 points per game) + Matt Stafford (16.6 points per game)

Consistency wise, there’s not much of an argument as DeSean Jackson is, at best, a flex play and bye week fall back. While you’re likely to have other wide outs on your team, you can instead draft a starting QB who’s 50% production (compared to Rodgers) is far more appealing that the 35% you’d get from Jackson (compared to Evans).

Now extrapolate that for Watson and Brady and there’s little argument that those guys are as valuable in the 3rd and 4th round as a 2nd back or wide receiver. If you’re not really sure how to piece together a team with high upside backups and sleeper wide outs, we implore you: wait on a QB.

 

 

 

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Early QB Rankings

  1. Aaron Rodgers, GB
  2. Russell Wilson, SEA
  3. Cam Newton, CAR
  4. Drew Brees, NO
    • A quiet yet efficient season has bred this idea that Brees is no longer elite. Expect a return to the top 5, especially with Ingram missing time.
  5. Carson Wentz, PHI
  6. Deshaun Watson, HOU
  7. Tom Brady, NE
    • This off season has been difficult for the Patriots as they have faced infighting, suspensions, and denatures. Brady will likely still be elite on the field, but his fantasy prospects take a hit.
  8. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
  9. Kirk Cousins, MIN
  10. Matthew Stafford, DET
  11. Philip Rivers, LAC
  12. Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
    • The 5 game stretch to finish the year was impressive, but too many quarter backs have wilted under the pressure after securing the big contract. If reports of Jimmy G’s struggles at camp are correct, caution should be taken.
  13. Jared Goff, LAR
  14. Matt Ryan, ATL
  15. Jameis Winston, TB
  16. Patrick Mahomes, KC
    • The weapons are there in this high powered offense, but the difference between the potential floor and potential ceiling is where the questions begin. As likely as he is a top 10 QB, he’s a bottom tier guy who struggles in his first real action.
  17. Alex Smith, WAS
  18. Mitch Trubisky, CHI
  19. Dak Prescott, DAL
  20. Marcus Mariota, TEN
  21. Eli Manning, NYG
    • The age is a real concern as Manning turns 38 this year and has tons of mileage on his tires, but his situation has improved immensely. Getting back OBJ and Shephard, receiving better protection, and having an effective run game should have him back in the top 20 conversation.
  22. Derek Carr, OAK
  23. Case Keenum, DEN
  24. Andrew Luck, IND
    • This is likely to change as we approach the season and his availability becomes clearer, but for now we have him ranked conservatively, should he start the season on the roster.
  25. Blake Bortles, JAC
  26. Andy Dalton, CIN
  27. Ryan Tannehill, MIA
  28. Jacoby Brissett, IND
  29. Joe Flacco, BAL
    • I would once have defended Flacco against the haters but I can no longer ignore the writing on the wall. One year older, and an early round addition in Lamar Jackson give Flacco very little room for error.
  30. Tyrod Taylor, CLE
  31. Sam Bradford, ARI
  32. Teddy Bridgewater, NYJ
  33. Sam Darnold, NYJ
  34. Josh Rosen, ARI
    • Of all the rookie QB’s, Rosen feels like he’s the closest to a starting gig, mainly because Bradford is a safe bet to get injured. If you’re drafting in re-drafts, most of these rookie QB’s aren’t an option, but Rosen may be the best of the bunch.
  35. Baker Mayfield, CLE
  36. Nick Foles, PHI
  37. Josh Allen, BUF
  38. A.J. McCarron, BUF
    • Neither McCarron, nor Allen, excite me much, but it’s likely McCarron’s offense for now. If you need a really deep play – he may be worth a look in the last round of your draft. Ideally he’d be a waiver wire pickup, though.
  39. Lamar Jackson, BAL
  40. Josh McCown, NYJ

Keep It In The Family: Pairing Same-Team Combo’s

RodgeAdamsEvery year I run an article where I examine the what I consider to the be the most rewarding same team pairings in fantasy football. The idea, if you’re not familiar, is that by adding high tier quarterbacks with elite wide receivers or running backs you give yourself a larger share of the available points. Of course, this works best with high scoring offenses.

Last year I missed the mark a little bit with my go to; Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, as both disappointed. Luckily I planned well enough that it didn’t impact me too much (I won the league after all), but the same risks exist for any strategy as some guys just don’t show up.

But this year presents a different challenge, as the number of elite quarterbacks have dropped precipitously and the number of sure fire fantasy studs is at a questionable level. Let’s begin:

Earl Round Pairs ( Most Difficult To Manage)

Aaron Rodgers and Devante Adams: Adams is finally getting the respect he deserves, ranking 7th among wide receivers. Pairing the #7 WR with the #1 QB is a healthy strategy regardless of what team they play for, but getting extra point for yards and touchdowns shared has this pairing at the top of list. Still, it’ll cost you two of your first four picks to assemble this pairing.

Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown: While the jury seems to be out on Roethlisberger every year in the off season, Big Ben grinds his way to a top ten finish at the position. What’s NEVER a question is how good Brown will be when he’s on the field. The easy answer is that Brown is the safest pick in fantasy, but it will require you have a top 3 or 4 pick.

Drew Brees and Michael Thomas: Despite still playing at a high level, Brees has sort of slipped behind Thomas and Alvin Kamara as the top targets in the New Orleans offense. That in no way diminishes his ability to produce in fantasy, and I’d argue is a better option than both Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but that’s a different article all together. Getting Michael Thomas, though, is the hard part. His ADP of 15 will mean drafting 1-5 will preclude you from drafting him unless you get lucky. If you do get lucky, a 6th or 7th round pick will land you Brees, who’s ADP of 69 is criminally low.

Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski: Draft Brady at your own risk, but if you’re confident that the off season malaise in New England won’t affect Brady’s ability to perform then have at it. The truth is that Rob Gronkowski could set records this year as the only reliable pair of hands left for Brady to chuck it up to. Sure, Edelman will be back in 4 games and Hogan has shown he can play with Brady, but Gronk should see the end zone 10-15 times this year on top of a ton of yards. Grabbing him in the 3rd round to pair with Brady in the 7th gives plenty of time to add skill players besides.

Middle Round Pairs (Easier To Coordinate)

Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin: This one isn’t as impactful in terms of fantasy because Wilson tends to supplement his passing stats with his legs. Unfortunately for this exercise, his rushing statistics can’t be taken into account. Still, Doug Baldwin is one of the leagues best slot receivers, and as a 4th round pick has a lot of value regardless. Without Jimmy Graham in the red one, he may even see a few more looks there. This one may not be the sexiest pair on the list, but they may be the most effective.

Carson Wentz and Zach Ertz: It may seem strange to see another WR/TE combo, but the fact is Wentz and Ertz seem to share a brain in the red zone, meaning a ton of points are up for grabs between the two of them. While Alshon Jeffrey may be the #1 wide out on the team’s depth chart, the true number one is Ertz. if you miss out on Gronk but you want a stud tight end, pair a 4th round Ertz with a 7th round Wentz and reap the benefits.

Kirk Cousins and Stefon Diggs: Wait, you say. This should be Thielen and Cousins! I’m here to tell you, not so fast. Now, I can see a scenario like in Denver years back with multiple 1,000 yard receivers, but the guy I’m targeting is Diggs in the late 4th round. He was excellent last year even though he wasn’t the top target for the Case Keenum led Vikings. Now, he has Cousins tossing the ball to him. A classic gunslinger, Cousins’ game best fits the strengths Diggs brings to the table. This is one of the least expensive pairings you can get as a 4th and a 10th gets you both players.

Matt Ryan and Julio Jones: You may have to spend a 2nd round pick on Jones, but the wait on Ryan is a bit longer than the other QB’s on this list. As the QB13, he’s being drafted in the 11th round, and I’d argue his value is sky high this year as a bounce back candidate. If you’re like me, and you see more value in grabbing high end skill players to pair with the later round QB, Matt Ryan is a slam dunk. Have him and Julio, and you’ll reap the rewards for all those yards.

Odell Beckham and Eli Manning: If you’re nervous about drafting either of these guys, I’d say you’re hardly alone. Beckham is an otherworldly talent when he’s right, but the combination of recent injury woes and an inability to stay level headed means he may fall towards the end of the first round. What I will say is that if you manage Beckham, Manning is a wonderful pairing if you waited a bit long on your QB. In the 16th round of drafts (current ADP is 152) Manning presents a conundrum. He was awful last year but much of it could be logically blamed on the terrible circumstances around him. With healthy weapons, an upgraded offensive line, and an elite RB to draw the attention, and Manning could be a surprise top 15 QB this year.

Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen: Allen proved last year that when he’s healthy, he’s every bit the stud we thought he was. Rivers remains one of the most under appreciated QB’s in fantasy, and his ADP of 112 presents tons of value. Without Hunter Henry, even more weight will be given to Allen, meaning these two could hook up for a ton of points.

Honorable Mentions: Derek Carr and Amari Cooper (a new coach could help get these two back on track). Jared Goff and Brandin Cooks (it’s a new look for Goff, but Cooks could be his go to early and often). Jameis Winston and Mike Evans (This requires a bounce back year for both, but not guaranteed). Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis (There’s so much talent between these two, it’s hard to imagine both of them laying duds this year).

The ADP Game: Rounds 6-10

With the NFL season creeping ever closer, we’ll examine current consensus ADP data provided by Fantasypros.com to discuss the players we love and the players we hate based on where they’re being drafted. 

Round 6

  1. Mark Ingram, RB – NO
  2. Jordan Reed, TE – WAS
  3. Sammy Watkins, WR – LAR
  4. Julian Edelman, WR – NE
  5. Jimmy Graham, TE – SEA
  6. Kelvin Benjamin, WR – CAR
  7. Martavis Bryant, WR – PIT
  8. Golden Tate, WR – DET
  9. Russell Wilson, QB – SEA
  10. Mike Gillislee, RB – NE

Player I love – Golden Tate: After a rough stretch to start the season, Tate followed up the bye week by catching at least 5 catches over the final 6 weeks to finish just shy of 1,000 yards. In PPR leagues especially, his value is rock solid late in the 6th round.

Player I Hate – Martavis Bryant: A few years ago, Bryant flashed big play ability to grow into the kind of unsustainable hype machine that burns fantasy teams who over-commit to lack of performance. While the skill is certainly there, Bryant has yet to prove he’ll stay clear of discipline long enough to reward fantasy owners. With the names going after him I’m passing entirely in the 6th round.

Round 7

  1. Tevin Coleman, RB – ATL
  2. Larry Fitzgerald, WR – ARI
  3. Andrew Luck, QB – IND
  4. LeGarrette Blount, RB – PHI
  5. Tyler Eifert, TE – CIN
  6. Brandon Marshall, WR – NYG
  7. Bilal Powell, RB – NYJ
  8. Ameer Abdullah, RB – DET
  9. Emmanuel Sanders, WR – DEN
  10. Adrian Peterson, RB – NO

Player I love – Tyler Eifert: All Eifert does is catch touchdowns, to the tune of 18 over his last 21 games. Finally healthy, Eifert should continue to grow in the Bengals offense, and it feels comfortable to extrapolate the second half of last season to predict 750 yards and 10TDs.

Player I Hate – Bilal Powell: Don’t get me wrong, I was on the Powell train earlier in the off season too, but the buzz got too big and now he’s being drafted before starters like Perkins, Abdullah, Gore, and Martin… which feels far too early for me. He’ll have some decent games but the Jets are going to be bad this year and to commit to Powell in the 7th round is foolish.

Round 8

  1. Stefon Diggs – WR – MIN
  2. Jameis Winston, QB – TB
  3. Frank Gore, RB – IND
  4. Delanie Walker, TE – TEN
  5. Cam Newton, QB – CAR
  6. Derek Carr, QB – OAK
  7. Doug Martin, RB – TB
  8. Paul Perkins, RB – NYG
  9. Eddie Lacy, RB – SEA
  10. Kirk Cousins, QB – WAS

Player I love – Doug Martin: It’s likely that if Martin wasn’t facing a suspension, he’d be going in the first 3 rounds of drafts, but thanks to his absence, the Muscle Hamster has fallen to the round 8 range. His offseason performances have me leaning towards bounce back year with a RB1 ceiling in the weeks following his return, which is a steal in the 8th round or later.

Player I hate – Eddie Lacy: What seemed like a match made in heaven for Lacy and the Seahawks has turned into a situation that has fans wondering if he’ll even make the team. Thomas Rawls has been announced as the starter and we all know C.J. Prosise is a lock for third downs, leaving slim pickings for the anything-but-slim back. Sure, Lacy may start by default if Rawls can’t stay healthy, but it doesn’t bode well for confidence if you decide to take a chance on the former Packer.

Round 9

  1. Willie Snead, WR – NO
  2. Marcus Mariota, QB – TEN
  3. Kyle Rudolph, TE – MIN
  4. Jamison Crowder, WR – WAS
  5. Danny Woodhead, RB – BAL
  6. Derrick Henry, RB – TEN
  7. Matellus Bennett, TE – GB
  8. DeSean Jackson, WR – TB
  9. Robert Kelley, RB – WAS
  10. Donte Moncrief, WR – IND

Player I Love – DeSean Jackson: It’s no secret that I’ve been targeting Jackson since the day he signed in Tampa. A burner with elite speed, he’ll slot in on day one as the 2nd WR opposite Mike Evans. If you think he had room to run last year when he had 1,000 yards and average nearly 18 yards per catch, just imagine the room he’ll have with Evans drawing doubles and Winston’s cannon of an arm leading him down field. Consistency will likely be lacking since he won’t top the team in targets but in the 9th he’ll be fantastic value.

Player I Hate – Donte Moncrief: This isn’t to say that I think Moncrief is a bad player, but the situation in Indy is looking worse by the week and while T.Y. Hilton will still find his fair share of targets, Moncrief could be in fantasy trouble if Scott Tolzien is handling the football. If Moncrief falls a few rounds I may consider him, but in this position I’d go with any number of receivers over him.

Round 10

  1. Randall Cobb, WR – GB
  2. Eric Decker, WR – TEN
  3. Dak Prescott, QB – DAL
  4. Ben Roethlisberger, QB – PIT
  5. Pierre Garcon, WR – SF
  6. Kareem Hunt, RB – KC
  7. Zach Ertz, TE – PHI
  8. Jonathan Stewart, RB – CAR
  9. Jeremy Maclin, WR – BAL
  10. Terrance West, RB – BAL

Player I love – Eric Decker: After the drama surrounding Decker when he was cut with New York it seemed he may be destined for the veteran run around as he looked for a landing spot. Now he’s in Tennessee and the rumors are that he’s Mariota’s new favorite weapon and he’s been looking his way in the red zone an awful lot. Decker could be a massive value at his current ADP.

Player I Hate – Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben will still win a lot of games this year, and he does have Antonio Brown to throw to, but these things may convince you that he’s an elite fantasy QB when in reality that ship has sailed. This team is going rely on Le’Veon Bell more than ever and while Roethlisberg will be serviceable, he’s less valuable than he’s ever been.

QB Review –

Over the next few days, we here at Dr. Fantasy will take a closer look at each skill position and where the best value is as you prepare for your drafts. 
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While plenty of fantasy teams featuring an early QB selection as their starter have gone on to win their leagues, there are more borderline great QB’s available in the middle rounds than ever. Waiting on a QB has never made so much sense as the tiers below will show you.

Elite Tier (1) 

  • Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers
  • Tom Brady – New England Patriots
  • Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints

The only question surrounding these three QB’s is where to take them. Rodgers will inevitably go early (round 2) but even Brady and Brees could see selections in the first 40 picks. Waiting even for these guys only makes sense.

Very Good Tier (2)

  • Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons
  • Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks
  • Kirk Cousins – Washington Redskins
  • Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Marcus Mariota – Tennessee Titans
  • Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers

Can Matt Ryan duplicate his 2016 season? I doubt it but he’ll still be very effective with those weapons. Cam Newton scares the hell out of me looking at 2017 as his corp of wide receivers didn’t really improve while the team drafted backs to help ease the pressure of running the football. If Newton finishes as a top 10 QB I’d be surprised.

Decent Tier (3)

  • Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys
  • Derek Carr – Oakland Raiders
  • Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts
  • Philip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers
  • Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions
  • Tyrod Taylor – Buffalo Bills
  • Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals
  • Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Eli Manning – New York Giants
  • Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles

This is the money maker tier for quarterbacks as most of them can be had in rounds 8 or later. The top of this tier are borderline Tier 2 guys so draft with confidence. The bottom, most importantly Ben Roethlisberger should be viewed as a lower end QB2 as injuries are sure to take a tole on the aging QB. Carson Wentz has a real chance to make a leap this year but Philadelphia figures to continue it’s balanced attack with Blount in the fold. He offers a modest ceiling with a pretty high floor.

Make a Prayer Tier (4)

  • Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens
  • Carson Palmer – Arizona Cardinals
  • Sam Bradford – Minnesota Vikings
  • Alex Smith – Kansas City Chiefs
  • Jay Cutler – Miami Dolphins
  • Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams

Uninspiring? Sure. Cost you much? No. These guys are the back end of your draft, either as an insurance policy on an aging QB or as streaming option for the more adventurous owners. Joe Flacco’s schedule and enhanced weapons (Woodhead+Maclin > Smith+Pitta) make him a really safe streaming option. Jay Cutler may be fine in an offense he’s familiar with, but the gunslinger is being asked to QB a team that’s very likely to run the football a lot, so don’t over draft the un-retired QB hoping for some kind of magic.

Worth a Flyer Tier (5)

  •  Blake Bortles – Jacksonville Jaguars
  • DeShaun Watson – Houston Texans
  • Mike Glennon – Chicago Bears
  • DeShone Kizer – Cleveland Browns
  • Brock Osweiler – Cleveland Browns
  • Brian Hoyer – San Fransisco 49ers
  • Trevor Siemian – Denver Broncos
  • Josh McCown – New York Jets
  • Mitchell Trubisky – Chicago Bears
  • Chad Henne – Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Jimmy Garoppolo – New England Patriots

If you’re drafting one of these guys, then odds are you like em a heck of a lot more than I do. Bortles may lose his job to Chad Henne (who isn’t exactly draftable himself), Trevor Siemian couldn’t lose this job if he tried (and I argue that he has), and Trubisky and Garoppolo are future starters with either not enough weapons to work with or no road to starting in sight.

The age old adage “wait on a QB” is easy to preach this year with so many viable quarterbacking options in the middle rounds. If you do swing early on a Rodgers or Brady, don’t worry but just be aware of what your pick may cost you in the other positions.

Sparknotes: NFC West

The NFC West has undergone major changes in terms of success. With the 49ers looking to enter a multiyear depression and the Rams still struggling to get out of their own, it’s up to the Cardinals and Seahawks to bring respect to the West.

Seattle Seahawks

Notable Fantasy Stars: Jimmy Graham (TE6), Russell Wilson (QB8), Doug Baldwin (WR11), Eddie Lacy (RB20), C.J. Prosise (RB41), Thomas Rawls (RB48), Tyler Lockett (WR59)

Synopsis – The Seahawks will go only as far as Russell Wilson will take them, and an effective run game will go a long way in keeping him healthy. With Prosise and Rawls proving to be injuried or ineffiecient, the Hawks added Eddie Lacy who hopes to bounce back with the new club. Doug Baldwin should garner the bulk of Wilsons attention between the 20’s but Jimmy Graham finally achieved symbiosis in Seattle and can be relied upon as a top 5 TE again.

San Fransisco 49ers

Notable Fantasy Stars: Carlos Hyde (RB12), Vance McDonald (TE29), Brian Hoyer (QB32), C.J.Beathard (QB39), Pierre Garcon (WR39), Joe Williams (RB54), Jeremy Kerley (WR80)

Synopsis – Barring a miracle, this San Fransisco team is looking like an abject disaster. Brian Hoyer as a starting QB isn’t the worst thing that could happen to this team, but between Pierre Garcon and Jeremy Kerley, there isn’t much to work with in this offene. McDonald may be a servicable backup TE but only Carlos Hyde is worth investing in as he proved last year he can be effective despite a crumbling organization around him.

Los Angeles Rams

Notable Fantasy Stars: Jared Goff (QB31), Todd Gurley (RB10), Robert Woods (WR60), Tavon Austin (WR73), Cooper Kupp (WR74), Tyler Higbee (TE27)

Synopsis – Things went sideway on the Rams last year as Gurley faced too many stacked boxes to show the burst we expected of him. With Goff likely to start this year, no one knows if they’ll actually be improved or not, but Gurley should still garner attention thanks to the high volume of carries. Robert Woods will outperform Tavon Austin, but not by much, with Tyler Higbee being the true sleeper candidate on a roster devoid of much fantasy bright spots.

Arizona Cardinals

Notable Fantasy Stars: Carson Palmer (QB23), David Johnson (RB1), Larry Fitzgerald (WR26), John Brown (WR48), J.J. Nelson (WR63), Jermaine Gresham (TE36)

Synopsis – David Johnson returns as my number one fantasy player this year, and this season could be the perfect record breaking scenario following the obvious decline to aging Carson Palmer and the lack of weapons not named Larry Fitzgerald to compete with. John Brown is an underwhelming option and J.J. Nelson has more questions than answers. This is David Johnson’s team.

Top 10 (Quarterbacks)

In preperation for my personal position rankings, I’ll be taking a look at the top of the list at each offensive fantasy position.

  1. Cam Newton – Newton was a Fantasy stud last year, owning the feild with his arm as well as his legs. Adding a top teir WR back into the fold with the returning Kelvin Benjamin
    will mean good things for Super Cam this year.
  2. Aaron Rodgers – His 60% completion percentage was his career low as a starter, and much of that can be attributed to a lackluster run game and losing his number 1 receiver in Jordy Nelson for the entire year. He still managed nearly 4,000 yards and 30+ TDs in 15 games. If Nelson is ready to go and Lacy is even remotely the player he has been in the past, expect a wilsonreturn to greatness.
  3. Russell Wilson – If you believe the loss of Marshawn Lynch will make this offense a bit too one dimensional, then you’d be wrong. When he’s called on to make plays, all Wilson does is produce. He may not break records, but his ability to add 500-800 yards on the ground make him elite in terms of Fantasy.
  4. Drew Brees – A model of consistency, Brees again led the league in yards while completing nearly 70% of his passes. Another year with animproving O-line and 4 capable receivers means Brees can be counted on again to win Fantasy games.
  5. Andrew Luck – It’s not secret that Luck struggled mightily last year, missing significant time due to a plethora of injuries. Still, Luck has the goods – and the weapons – to produce at a high level. If they can keep him healthy, theres no reason to believe he’ll return to the elite signal caller we know he is.
  6. Ben Roethlisberger – The ceiling was raised a few years ago, and with Antonio Brown lining up to catch passes, you can’t expect too sharp a decline even as father time inches up behind Big Ben. He’s fallen a bit on my list with the news that Bryant will miss the entire season and his saftey blank in Le’Veon Bell will miss 4 games, and he may fall farther still.
  7. Carson Palmer – Old age seems to be an antiquated reason to skip on NFL QB’s in your fantasy leagues as Carson Palmer returns to the top 10 as a 36 year old. He’s got three fantasic receivers, a very good line, and a running game to help take off the pressure. Did we mention he takes care of the football? He may not be a flashy name, but he’ll get the job done.
  8. Philip Rivers – Rivers seems to never get the love that he deserves, but in the end he’ll throw the ball a ton which will mitigate any issues that may surround this offense. They’ll likely continue to easy Melvin Gordon into a larger roll, so expect games with 35+ attempts early on.
  9. Blake Bortles – I hear that we shouldn’t expect a repeat of the fantastic year we saw out of Bortles last year. I disagree. Hurns and Robinson are both great weapons and adding a successful down hill running in Chris Ivory will free up some plays over the middle. His legs can help him add another 250+ yards to what will likely be a 4,000 yard 30 TD campaign.
  10. Eli Manning – I’ll preface my inclusion in my top ten by saying I don’t really like Eli Manning. Not in the least, but he manages to find a way to put up fantasy numbers even while he’s managing ways to lose real NFL games. OBJ is Elite, Cruz (even at 50% of what he was) will attract some of the defense, and the kid they drafted, Sterling Shephard should give him more weapons to work with.

Missed the Cut

Tom Brady (his supension moved him from the top 10), Matt Ryan (so much hate for no reason. Has a top 3 WR catching the football), David Carr (close, but not there yet. Another up year in Oakland and he’ll be tough to deny), Tony Romo (he’s Eli Manning if Eli Manning got hurt every year. He’ll put up massive numbers when he’s healthy… which is likely less than 12 games).

 

Updated: QB Rankings (7/7/15)

Updated 6/16

  1. Andrew Luck
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Russell Wilson
  4. Ben Roethlisburger
  5. Peyton Manning
  6. Drew Brees
  7. Matt Ryan
  8. Tony Romo
  9. Eli Manning
  10. Tom Brady
  11. Ryan Tannehill
  12. Matthew Stafford
  13. Cam Newton
  14. Phillip Rivers
  15. Colin Kaepernick
  16. Joe Flacco
  17. Carson Palmer
  18. Derek Carr
  19. Jay Cutler
  20. Alex Smith
  21. Teddy Bridgewater
  22. Andy Dalton
  23. Blake Bortles
  24. Sam Bradford
  25. Marcus Mariota
  26. Jameis Winston
  27. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  28. Brian Hoyer
  29. Geno Smith
  30. Josh McCown
  31. Robert Griffin
  32. Matt Cassel
  33. Nick Foles

3 Up

Colin Kaepernick – Reports of the discontent in San Fransisco are overshadowing the progress that Kaep has made in the pocket as a passer. Despite a tumbling ADP, Kaepernick continues to rise on my board, especially considering his ability to make plays with his legs. It may not always be pretty but he’ll finish as a top 15 QB you can get at a discount.

Derek Carr – The hype train was slightly derailed recently when fears surround the injury sustained to his finger had many wondering if he’d be ready for week 1 of the season. Back at practice and getting to work with his new #1 in Amari Cooper, Carr’s injury won’t be an impact, and he has the tools and weapons to find himself in the top 15 QB’s.

Marcus Mariota –  He may end up over valued by inexperienced drafters due to the buzz surrounding Mariota, but he’s already impressed coaches and team mates with his ability and work ethic. He’s jumping up on my board, and I’m beginning to feel he’s what Cam Newton was expected to be in the NFL,

3 Down

Tom Brady – In spite of his performances after similar issues (see his 2007 stats after spy gate for an example) Brady’s attention may be too focused on his legacy as he fights the 4 game suspension from the deflated football… thing. I’m not insinuating he’ll be terrible, but he could begin to fall down draft boards with fears that he won’t be elite for all 12 of the games he’s availbale for.

Jay Cutler – They added Kevin White, he still has Alshon Jeffrey and Matt Forte, and you’re wondering why I think he’s a down? Jeffrey is a great athlete, but he’s a throw and go type WR who’s strength is pull down a jump ball. White may have more upside in the long run, but this team will hurt for a route runner early and Cutler struggles when he throws into coverage. I expect an rough season for Cutler without Marshall on the roster.

Andy Dalton – This offense isn’t any better than the previous year when Dalton was expected to jump into the conversation for top teir QB’s. Instead, he constantly disappointed, and this team didn’t do enough in the off season to mask his deficiencies. They will likely lean heavily on the run with two solid backs, so Dalton is unlikely to show much more than last year.

Fantasy Team Rankings 12-1

luck12. Miami Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill quietly put together a borderline top 10 QB season, and Lamar Miller proved he could run the football with some consistency and catch it on occasion in the passing game.  The receivers on this team are young and talented, with high volume option in Jarvis Landry and burners in Kenny Stills and Rishard Matthews. Adding Jordan Cameron only makes it harder for defenses to match up when they want to spread you out. Worth Drafting: Ryan Tannehill will likely be valued lower than he should be, as a later QB1 he’s worth it. Lamar Miller may have some competition later in the year from the uber talented Jay Ajayi, expect him to be a workhorse if healthy. Landry should be a good bet for 70+ catches, and Stills could be a weapon for Tannehill over the top. Jordan Cameron, if healthy, will step in and replace Charles Clay’s production very well.

11. San Diego Chargers

Philip Rivers manages every year to put together a top 10 QB season, and expect this year to be no different. Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd should still see the bulk of the passes, new addition Stevie Johnson has a lot to prove and could be a nice late round WR addition. Despite Ledarius Green’s presence, Antonio Gates went out and killed it last year, and I’ll never again doubt the big mans ability or drive. Worth Drafting: Philip Rivers as always falls just shy of the NFL elite, but is a solid QB if you miss out on the top teir guys. Keenan Allen has the tools to be a WR1 and Michael Floyd will still stretch the field a bit (16.5 YPC last year). Stevie Johnson is a risk/reward player as his pedigree may trick owners into jumping early. Antonio Gates should be himself again this year, and I would caution against Ladarius Green fans against expecting any real fantasy value unless Gates gets hurt. Melvin Gordon could be this years highest scoring rookie… don’t be afraid to draft.

10.  Chicago Bears

I know what you’re thinking, “the Bears in the top 10?” They may not be a top 10 NFL team, but we’re talking in terms of fantasy contributions. Jay Cutler may be inconsistent, as is evidenced by his second half slide, but he still has plenty of tools and a big arm. Alshon Jeffery will have an uptick in attempts as Cutler has shown a propensity to seak out his top target despite double teams. Matt Forte is a top 10 RB and top 3 in PPR formats, and Martellus Bennet moves into the top 3 conversation at TE thanks to Jimmy Grahams change of scenery. Worth Drafting: I was high on Jay Cutler last year, and this hasn’t changed. If you look at his first 5 or 6 weeks last year, he had some pretty good numbers that would have been even better if he didn’t turn the ball over. Kevin White is an unknown quantity but he should replace Marshall in the long run with the same kind of build. Jeffry should be a top 10WR and Bennett is a top 3 TE.

9. Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan did the best he could with the rash of injuries that clipped the Falcons wings last year, but a healthy squad will make a world of difference. Ryan is a top 10 QB even without his top two targets healthy. Tevin Coleman could push Devonta Freeman but both are talented and whoever makes it out of camp as the #1 should see above average RB numbers. Roddy White is still an every week start even with the top 3 WR in Julio Jones across from him. They have question marks at TE as Toilolo Levine led their active TE’s with 62 points last year (in 1pt PPR). Worth Drafting: Matt Ryan had a few brutal weeks and still managed a top 10 finish, he’ll have a better grasp on this offense and health not withstanding should be a top 10 QB this year as well. Julio Jones has the talent to finish #1, and he’ll likely go in the first 15 picks. Roddy White gets over looked more every year but he’s still a top 20 WR. The real question is Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman? I think it’ll be a battle in camp, and both guys should have some fantasy relevance come week 1.

8. New York Giants

The world was against the Giants after a brutal season prior, but Eli Manning still finished top 10 at QB, and Odell Beckham emerged as a top WR threat. With the return of Victor Cruz this offense could have two scary weapons for Eli to use. Rashad Jennings may be a little older than the other top RB’s, but he still averaged 10-11 points per week (depending on your scoring system). Larry Donnell put together an admirable season and the Giants like to use TE’s in the passing game. Worth Drafting: Eli is a safe bet to out perform his numbers last year if he has a healthy WR corps. Beckham will likely be drafted incredibly early, but with Cruz back, he’ll be hard pressed to repeat his second half numbers. Rueben Randle is the real steal here, as his value takes a huge hit with two studs in front of him, but in a passing offense, he should out perform his ADP. Rashad Jennings was fine when he played, but grab Andre Williams late as a handcuff if you need to use Jennings as a RB 1 or 2.

7. Detroit Lions

I hate to say that Matthew Stafford is overrated, because I think he’s an entertaining gun slinger in the Brett Favre mold, but his terrible efficiency actually lowers his ceiling despite as often as he throws the football. That being said, he has two elite WR’s in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Either one can carry the torch if the other isn’t performing. At TE, they have two question marks: is Brandon Pettigrew capable of being used in the passing game and can Eric Ebron be healthy enough to contribute. I think Ebron is the TE the Lions would rather emerge. Joique Bell got a lot of touches last year, but averaged under 4 YPC. His value lies in the passing game, but the Lions served notice in drafting what they think is a 3 down back in Ameer Abdullah. A great talent, he should push Bell for touches early and often. Worth Drafting: Matt Stafford at the right price has enough volume to contribute but he’ll drive you crazy. Calvin Johnson slipping down the ranks only helps the owner who gets him, he’s still the best in the game in my opinion. Golden Tate is a solid second option, and a good one two punch in Bell and Abdullah in the backfield make this a formidable offense. Ebron is the TE to look at with a much higher ceiling.

6. Seattle Seahawks

The beautiful thing about this offense is that it’s predictable and consistent. Russell Wilson will beat you through the air or on the ground, and his ability to run at the right time means he’ll get you a ton of points that other QB’s won’t. Marshawn Lynch is a workhorse unlike any in the league. He’ll touch the ball with greater consistency and efficiency than anyone else. The homeruns aren’t always there, but 4-5YPC and double digit touchdowns make him my #1 back. Doug Baldwin has proven to be a solid #1 for a team that doesn’t throw it that much, his value will reflect that. Beyond him, Jimmy Graham should give Wilson a redzone threat, but no one else is more than a flier. Worth Drafting: This team features three top 5 position options. Russell Wilson ran for 850 yards last year… he’s in my top 3 for QBs. Marshawn Lynch may not have as many 30+ point weeks as a Le’Veon Bell, but his unparralleled consistency (12 weeks above RB average) make him my #1, and Jimmy Graham will likely be the #1 option inside the 20 plus just a tick behind Baldwin elsewhere. Draft all three confidently. Doug Baldwin is a safe WR if he’s available after the top options are off the board.

5.  Dallas Cowboys

My value of the Dallas Cowboys is contingent on the offensive line. Darren McFadden’s ability hasn’t been his big question, it’s been his health. If he can stay on the field he’ll benifit greatly from the O-Line that helped DeMarco Murray lead the league in rushing last year. Dez Bryant and Tony Romo have a special connection, allowing both to creep towards the top 5 in their catagories. Cole Beasley should be a good value pick in PPR leagues, and Jason Witten is ageless and productive. Worth Drafting: At their relative ADP’s I’d say nearly all of the offensive weapons are worth a look. Bryant, Romo and McFadden all three will be drafted in the first 4 or 5 rounds. Witten, Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley all have a good chance to produce weekly for this team as well.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

Who knew Le’Veon Bell would bounce back from a tough rookie year to lead the league in fantasy scoring? We knew he’d be good, but it gave the offense the freedom to throw different looks at the defense. They were rewarded with a career year by Roethlisburger and the emergency of Antonio Brown as a top WR office. Marcus Wheaton will put up solid WR fantasy stats as well, and Heath Miller, although no longer Elite, still has some gas in the tank. Worth Drafting: Ben Roethlisberger may not finish with the totals he had last year, but he’s a good bet to finish at or near a top 5 QB. Le’Veon Bell is going to miss a few games to start the year, but it’s clear he’s the focal point of that offense and he’s young enough to eat up 300+ touches and is a beast in PPR. Antonio Brown is the Marshawn Lynch of the receiving game. Quietly posting 300 or so points in PPR leagues and nearly 15-20 points every week. Bell and Brown are likely first or 2nd round picks. Don’t sleep on Miller either as there is really only 5 or  6 elite TE’s on the board, and after you’re looking at either consistency (miller) or home run weeks.

3. Denver Broncos

This wouldn’t change if Peyton Manning was 50 years old, and that’s because they finally found their RB to compliment their lethal passing game. Peyton is a general, and will use his elite weapons liberaly, and will make mediocre talents look even better. Julius Thomas is gone but anyone that can run routes will look solid in this offense. CJ Anderson as a 3 down back compliments Manning in ways Montee Ball never could, averaging 180+ points in PPR formats over the final 7 weeks (on par with Le’Veon Bell). Worth Drafting: Manning may be falling behind his contemporaries a bit but should still finish in the top 5. Demaryius Thomas looks to be a top 2 WR with Emmanuel Sanders not far behind. CJ Anderson is a bit of an unknown quantity but even if he’s only a quarter of the back he was over the last 7 weeks, he’ll be a top 10 back. Not sure about Virgil Green, but I think we said the same thing about Julius Thomas a few years ago, and Manning turned him into a top option.

2. Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy… do I need to say more?  A high powered offense with consistency and familiarity unlike any squad in the league, they could break records if the schedule shakes out for them. They play through the air, and on the ground, but they give everyone their due which is rare for a team with as many options. Worth Drafting: Aaron Rodgers may have been supplanted by Andrew Luck, but he hasn’t fallen far. All four of the players above will be gone in the first 3 or so rounds, which is scary for opposing defenses. Andrew Quarless is the other player to target, but they’ve never been a heavy TE use team.

1. Indianapolis Colts

AFC Championship withstanding, this is the most outstanding offense in football. A team that is often in shootouts, Indy has a quarterback to compete with them all. Adding Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, and Phillip Dorsett through the draft makes this offense even better than last year. Luck could (and I’d argue should) crest 5k yards and 50 TD’s, contributing to TY Hilton’s continued emergence as a 2nd round WR. Frank Gore has proven he can play forever, and in this Indy offense should contribute on the ground and in the air, and Andre Johnson may have lost a step but as a route runner, the dangerously accurate Luck should have no problem finding him in the soft spots of the defense. Worth Drafting: Andrew Luck will finish the year as the highest scoring player in football, draft him in the first round if you want him, he’s that good. TY Hilton and Andre Johnson should both have 70-80 Receptions with 1100 plus yards, although I expect Johnson to be the bigger red zone threat and higher ADP. Frank Gore may not be a top 5 or even top 10 RB, but expect some huge weeks from the old dog as he will be highighted in the passing game. Even Dwayne Allen, for all his deficiencies, should finish inside the top 10 of the TE ranks.

If you have a problem with any of these rankings, I say good, because debating and conversation is the best way to explain why we feel the way we feel. Tell me where I’m wrong, and who is your Fantasy Elite?

Way Too Early Rankings: QB

More than any other position, the QB position feels the least amount of fluctuation as starting gigs are usually wrapped up before the NFL draft. With the two rookies sliding into starting spots, lets see where our QB’s stand in terms of Fantasy Rankings in our Way Too Early Rankings.

  1. Andrew Luck – IND
  2. Aaron Rodgers – GB
  3. Peyton Manning – Den
  4. Russell Wilson – Sea
  5. Drew Brees – NO
  6. Ben Roethlisberger – Pit
  7. Matt Ryan – Atl
  8. Tom Brady – NE
  9. Cam Newton – Car
  10. Ryan Tannehill – Mia
  11. Eli Manning – NYG
  12. Tony Romo – Dal
  13. Philip Rivers – SD
  14. Matthew Stafford – Det
  15. Carson Palmer – Ari
  16. Colin Kaepernick – SF
  17. Joe Flacco – Bal
  18. Andy Dalton – Cin
  19. Jay Cutler – Chi
  20. Derek Carr – Oak
  21. Alex Smith – KC
  22. Teddy Bridgewater – Min
  23. Sam Bradford – Phi
  24. Robert Griffin III – Was
  25. Blake Bortles – Jax
  26. Nick Foles – StL
  27. Jameis Winston – TB
  28. Marcus Mariota – Ten
  29. Brian Hoyer – Hou
  30. Ryan Fitzpatrick – NYJ
  31. Josh McCown – Cle
  32. Matt Cassell – Buf

Three Up:

  • Derek Carr – A young team with some exceptional weapons, Carr could very well vault himself into the top 15 conversation.
  • Blake Bortles – Jacksonville seems committed to creating an offensive culture that will see Bortles succeed. He certainly has the intangibles.
  • Alex Smith – He may have shown age last year, but I think cleaning the slate with his receiving core could work wonders for Smith this year.

Three Down: 

  • Tom Brady – We’ve seen Brady play with a chip on his shoulder, but at 38 and facing a possible suspension, Brady may not be worth his draft day value.
  • Nick Foles – If Sam Bradfords fall from grace was any indication, St. Louis could be a bad spot for Foles. They also have a brutal schedule for QB’s fantasy production.
  • Drew Brees – Age is certainly a factor here, but losing Jimmy Graham and the news that New Orleans is looking to dial back on the reliance of the passing game could see Brees dropping out of the top 10.