Friday Mock: ESPN PPR

It’s been a while since we last attacked a Mock Draft review, but as we inch further into the off season, our opinions on teams and players have shifted, and we were curious to see who was trending up, and who was falling in drafts. We logged into an ESPN draft last night before bed, and this was the result (from the 5th spot in a 10 man PPR mock).

Round 1 – Pick 1.05: Melvin Gordon, RB – Chargers

Drafting fifth this year may be one of the more difficult decisions in the first round, but I was committed to taking a RB early, and I liked him ahead of question marks like Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Todd Gurley. I briefly toyed with the idea of taking Hopkins or Adams here, but it’s too early in the first for me to wait until the 2nd for a RB.

Round 2 – Pick 2.06: Juju Smith-Schuster, WR – Steelers

None of my top WR targets fell to me, so I was hoping to take Kelce here, and he went just before my pick. With James Conner and Leonard Fournette representing the two top backs on my list, I decided to take the safety of Juju Smith-Schuster as my WR1. Sure, there’s a chance some regression could creep into his numbers with Brown gone, but barring injury, he’ll see 165-180 targets in 2019, a fantastic floor after missing my top targets.

Round 3 – Pick 3.05: Julian Edelman, WR – Patriots

I considered taking Thielen here for his ceiling, but his second half last year is still firmly in my mind. Instead, I went with Edelman, a guy I expect will have one of the larger target shares in the league after the depature of Rob Gronkowski in the off season. Already targeted heavily inside the red zone (11 inside the 10 yard line was 4th, and his 6 TDs in that zone were tied for 3rd) there’s little evidence that Harry is going to change the reliance Brady has on Edelman. Always undervalued, I appreciate him as a steady PPR performer, and as my WR2, I’m excited for how he and Juju pair up.

Round 4 – Pick 4.06: Aaron Jones, RB – Packers

The 5th spot strikes again as Jacobs, Chubb, Williams, and Kerryon all went to start the fourth, leaving me with slim pickings at the RB position. This was a learning experience, as I may consider taking a back in the 3rd round of similar drafts and selecting one of the available WR’s like AJ Green or Brandin Cooks in the 4th round. Instead, I took Jones, who’s ceiling was enough to elevate him over the other available running backs (Derrick Henry, Sony Michel, and Chris Carson).

Round 5 – Pick 5.05: Chris Godwin, WR – Buccaneers

It was time to get back on track after making the reactionary selection in the 4th, and the WR pool here was far more secure than the RB group (Carson and Drake were the only available guys worth considering in round 5 in my opinion). I was out on Alshon Jefferey before the mock started, so it came down to Godwin and Mike Williams. Williams has a monster ceiling, and I briefly considered him here, but unlike Godwin, not much has changed in that Chargers offense to inspire confidence that he’ll see a significant uptick in targets. Godwin should feature as the WR2 in that offense, and while Evans is the clear top pick, Arians has coached some excellent WR tandems in the past.

Round 6 – Pick 6.06: Kenyan Drake, RB – Dolphins

So the tail end of the 5th and the start of the 6th saw a nice blend of players I wasn’t in on get selected. When my pick came up, I only had to decide if Tyreek Hill was worth a flier in the fourth round over my top ranked available RB (Kenyan Drake). With Miles Sanders coming along more slowly than anticipated and Tarik Cohen representing a lack of overall opportunity, Drake felt like the right choice here. 

Round 7 – Pick 7.05: Hunter Henry, TE – Chargers

I went into this pick thinking I’d add additional depth at the RB or WR position, but seeing names like Guice, Watkins, and Landry, I felt myself shifting towards adding a top 5 player as a starter for either QB or TE. While I do like Deshaun Watson (the top ranked QB on my board), I still believe that top 5 production can be replicated later in the draft, and Henry should see more volume than most of the TE’s going behind him.

Round 8 – Pick 8.06: Tevin Coleman, RB – 49ers 

I kind of regret not taking Rodgers in the 7th round, as I expect him to push Mahomes for the top spot at the QB position, but Coleman is a nice consolation prize. I’ve covered him in articles before, but his blend of pass catching and smooth running made him a force in Shanahan’s offenses prior, and with McKinnon and Brieda not suited for three down work, Coleman represents the only top 25 potential in my opinion in San Fran. The pool at this point was thinning, and I was not considering taking Marvin Jones or Will Fuller to secure a mediocre WR, so the pick was an easy one for me.

Round 9 – Pick 9.05: Golden Tate, WR – Giants

I’ve kind of shifted my allegiance from Sterling Shepard to Golden Tate, and it has as much to do with how Tate’s career has gone than any deficiency in Shepard’s game. Eli Manning’s advanced statistics show that that over the last two seasons he’s had one of the lowest air yards per attempt, throwing a depth of 3.3 yards per in 2017 and 3.7 yards per in 2018 (both in the bottom ten of the league). With Tate being the likely slot man, he should benefit from a lot of the vacated targets, and is a super safe WR4.

Round 10 – Pick 10.06: Jordan Howard, RB – Eagles

This is one pick I’d like to have back… Rashaad Penny was selected just before this pick, and I may have been on tilt convinced myself that Howard could benefit from Miles Sanders lack of progress in pass protection. With an injury prone QB in Wentz, there’s some hope that Howard may see the field a bit more if Sanders CAN’T pick it up, but best case scenario is the 25 year old Howard resumes the first and second down role he had in Chicago, and I’d probably have been better off taking Nyhiem Hines, a PPR force on a top 3 offense, and coincidentally then next RB selected after me.

Round 11 – Pick 11.05: Donte Moncreif, WR – Steelers

The Steelers supported two excellent fantasy options last year, and I feel that their offense is primed to do it again this year. While Moncrief hasn’t really lived up to the hype from his rookie season, he still represents the kind of ceiling I want out of my WR5. He has size (6’2 – 220 lbs) and speed (4.40 speed) and could finally be given a chance to shine in a role that may suit his skill set. With only James Washington to beat out for target share, he’s a wonderful low risk high reward play at this point in the draft.

Round 12 – Pick 12.06: Dak Prescott, QB – Cowboys

So… I will absolutely admit that I messed this pick up. I LOVE Prescott this year (you can find out more about him in my QB Sleeper article) but I made the selection a little too quickly and missed out on Russell Wilson (who was inexplicably still available). I understand that Seattle is going to run the ball a ton, but I still believe in Wilson’s talent, and his legs help make up for any lack of production through the air he may experience. His ceiling is still top 5 at the position. Instead I took Prescott…. just a reminder folks, pay attention even late in the draft.

Round 13 – Pick 13.05: Adam Humphries, WR – Titans

Some point to Corey Davis’ target share as a reason to ignore other Titans receivers, but following the release of Rishard Matthews a few season ago, the Titans have had a hole at the slot receiver position, something Humphries figures to fill just fine. This late in the draft, I’m looking for players with upside, and Humphries has proven that he can be a contributor in this league already with 137 receptions over the last two years, so in the 13th round I may have found a wonderful flex/bye week starter, and potential trade bait if most of my receivers pan out.

Round 14 – Pick 14.06: Austin Hooper, TE – Falcons

With my last position player selection, I took a flier on Falcons TE Austin Hooper. He was a significant Red Zone target last year, and provides a genuine safety net for Hunter Henry who still has plenty to prove in his young NFL career. I could have taken another skill position player here, but I already have 6 receivers and I didn’t see any value at the available running backs. At this point, he’s a flier who will become a roster spot if the need arises.

Final Roster

• QB: Dak Prescott
• RB: Melvin Gordon, Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake, Tevin Coleman, Jordan Howard
• WR: Juju Smith-Schuster, Julian Edelman, Chris Godwin, Golden Tate, Donte Moncrief, Adam Humphries
• TE: Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper.

Final Thoughts

I’d like to blame the few mistakes I made on drafting late at night, but they were just true mental gaffs. If I’d paid closer attention, I’d have had Russell Wilson and Nyheim Hines instead of Prescott and Howard, and I may have skipped Hunter Henry and invested in a player like Derrius Guice. I still maintain that drafting 5th and 6th are two of the more difficult things to do in 2019. The elite group of backs is four deep, and committing to a WR at the 5 spot puts you on a path that requires a lot of faith in mediocre running backs.

I’m not unhappy with how this mock turned out, but I do have some work to do on those transition rounds (4-7) as they are the most important rounds in your fantasy draft. Let me know if you’d have done anything different, and as always, happy drafting!

Depth Chart Updates

As we know intimately here at the Dr’s Office, hitting on a depth player is one of the best feelings in fantasy. Whether it was a middle round pick who supplanted a starter, or a late round flier who steps up due to injury, there’s a handful of these occurrences seemingly every week. When it happens before the season starts… that’s when it can be confusing.

Jaguars list Keelan Cole and Donte Moncrief as their starters

For a time it seemed as though 2017 fourth round pick Dede Westbrook was carving out a nice little role for himself, but when the preseason games rolled around he didn’t do enough to claim one of the starting roles. With Marquise Lee down for the season, it seems as though last years playoff hero Keelan Cole (ADP 130) will be asked to slot in opposite former Colts third round pick Donte Moncrief (ADP 200). Both options are fantastic value considering where they are going, but Cole may be one of the drafts best sleeper picks at this point. With the proven rapport with Bortles and recent fantasy results, the 14th round is still too late.

DeVante Parker may not be ready for the season opener

This one is an ongoing situation that bears observation, but the talented youngster still has to prove that he’s more than just combine measurables. A quick look at his Player Profiler page shows the story of a player who hasn’t figured out how to play the position against NFL caliber defenses. His target shares are average between the 20s but he struggles to gain separation (98th among qualified WRs) and doesn’t factor into red zone plays enough to be a difference maker. With the lingering finger issue, Parker could be ready for week 1 and I’d be fading him hard. With Amendola and/or Albert Wilson inhabiting the slot and chewing up a good portion of Landry’s vacated targets, and Kenny Stills presence in the red zone, Parker is going to have a tough time overcoming these deficiencies. .

New England Backfield is still a mess

While the colors may look different, this Patriots Backfield is the same difficult to analyze painting of an NFL backfield every season. Between additions (Jeremy Hill, Sony Michel) and departures (Mike Gillislee, Brandon Bolden), there seems to be a never ending carousel of backs in the drivers seat. According to the Patriots depth chart, both James White and Rex Burkhead are listed as starters, further muddying the waters if you were trying to cash in on New England’s odd but excellent running back usage. In PPR leagues, James White’s value at an ADP of around 120 is excellent value.

With Edelman missing 4 games due to suspension and a litany of wide receiver issues, injuries, and departures, White should factor in heavily early on. Still, it’s Burkhead who figures to make the most of his increased usage as he’ll dominate red zone touches and should see a healthy amount of work on the ground. Both are great values despite the concerns over who will see the most touches.

Carlos Hyde listed as Cleveland Browns starting RB

Much like Frank Gore before him, former 49ers running back Carlos Hyde continues to get disrespected in the fantasy world, as his ADP of 75 is outrageous considering how well he’s played to this point in his career. Many would point to the crowded backfield and presence of Duke Johnson as reasons why he can’t repeat as a top 20 back, but I’d tell you they are wrong. The Browns are a much improved offensive unit and Hyde looked fantastic in his limited action in the preseason. With Chubb figuring as the future of the franchise, there’s no reason for Cleveland to not pound the rock with Hyde. I don’t anticipate him pushing into the top 10, but he’s one of the easiest targets in the 8th round to justify.

Derrick Henry listed atop the RB depth chart in Tennessee

While all the attention was paid to the off season signing of former Patriot Dion Lewis, Henry quietly went about his job, continuing to work towards a larger work load in 2018. While we don’t expect him to handle much of the passing downs, the truth is that he’s the better runner of the two, despite what the experts would have you think. Dion Lewis’ season last year was a bit of an aberration, and continued health concerns and the lack of a track record for high touch totals means Henry should be involved from week 1.

LeGarrette Blount to start over Kerryon Johnson in Week 1

We take this one with a grain of salt, but it’s hardly surprising to see the recently acquired veteran starting at the pole over the exciting rookie. Johnson looked like the most talented back on the roster all preseason, so we don’t think it will be long before he’s seeing meaningful touches, but Blount should be the primary goal line back. If Johnson can vulture some touches inside the 20s or some of the passing downs, he figures to be a much better option long term than any other back on the Lions roster.

Bad Luck in Indy

With the Hall of Fame Game set to kick off the pre-season in just over three weeks, we still have very little information regarding the status of Andrew Lucks rehab from offseason shoulder surgery.

The most obvious fallout from this is with Luck himself, where my previous QB rankings had him still in the top five despite the lingering issues. At this point, with as little information as we have, I have dropped Luck in my postitional rankings from 5 to 9, falling behind Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott.

Beyond that, we have to consider what life without Luck would be like for the first few weeks. Hilton is a safer pick as he’ll likely be the focal point of the passing game. Frank Gore is a safe bet at his current ADP as well since it’s unlikely they’ll use him more or less regardless.

I’m not the biggest Moncrief fan in the world and depending on how much time Luck misses, he falls on my board, but I’m intrigued about Jack Doyle and his potential contributions. While there’s not enough statistics to provide answers for the young TE, it stands to reason that beyond Hilton, he’d be a likely saftey net for a young QB filling in for Luck. Don’t adjust your rankings on him.

Despite all this planning, we could hear in the next few days that Luck is a pillar of health and his rehab is progressing nicely. By all accounts, the Colts front office expects Luck to be ready for week one, but in the absence of solid evidence, it makes sense to prepare for the worst.

Updated: WR Rankings

Updated 6/23

1. Antonio Brown – PIT
2. Demaryius Thomas – DEN
3. Dez Bryant – DAL
4. Odel Beckham Jr. – NYG
5. Julio Jones – ATL
6. Calvin Johnson – DET
7. Jordy Nelson – GB
8. AJ Green – CIN
9. Randall Cobb – GB
10. TY Hilton – IND
11. Mike Evans – TB
12. DeAndre Hopkins – HOU
13. Emmanuel Sanders – DEN
14. Alshon Jeffery – CHI
15. Kelvin Benjamin – CAR
16. Jordan Matthews – PHI
17. Julian Edelman – NE
18. Keenan Allen – SD
19. Brandin Cooks – NO
20. Sammy Watkins – BUF
21. Amari Cooper – OAK
22. DeSean Jackson – WAS
23. Golden Tate – DET
24. Brandon Marshall – NYJ
25. Roddy White – ATL
26. Martavis Bryant – PIT
27. Allen Robinson – JAC
28. Kevin White – CHI
29. Andre Johnson – IND
30. Mike Wallace – MIN
31. Torrey Smith – SF
32. Brandon LaFell – NE
33. Eric Decker – NYJ
34. Vincent Jackson – TB
35. Jeremy Maclin – KC
36. Michael Floyd – ARI
37. Jarvis Landry – MIA
38. Anquan Boldin – SF
39. John Brown – ARI
40. Nelson Agholor – Phi
41. Marques Colston – NO
42. Victor Cruz – NYG
43. Charles Johnson – MIN
44. Larry Fitzgerald – ARI
45. Steve Smith – BAL
46. Breshard Perriman – BAL
47. Kendall Wright – TEN
48. Kenny Stills – MIA
49. Pierre Garcon – WAS
50. Davante Adams – GB
51. Terrance Williams – DAL
52. Rueben Randle – NYG
53. Brian Quick – STL
54. Malcom Floyd – SD
55. Marvin Jones – CIN
56. Doug Baldwin – SEA
57. Dwayne Bowe – CLE
58. DeVante Parker – MIA
59. Percy Harvin – BUF
60. Cody Latimer – DEN
61. Marqise Lee – JAC
62. Dorial Green-Beckham – TEN
63. Stevie Johnson – SF
64. Kenny Britt – STL
65. Justin Hunter – TEN
66. Cole Beasley – Dal
67. Cecil Shorts – HOU
68. Devin Funchess – CAR
69. Michael Crabtree – OAK
70. Phillip Dorsett – IND
71. Jaelen Strong – HOU
72. Donte Moncrief – IND
73. Andrew Hawkins – CLE
74. Cordarelle Patterson – MIN
75. Greg Jennings – MIA
76. Nick Toon – NO
77. Devin Smith – NYJ
78. Tyler Lockett – SEA
79. Sammie Coates – PIT
80. Stedman Bailey – STL

3 Up

Dwayne Bowe – CLE – Let’s be clear, I’m not suggesting Bowe is going to be a world beater or find himself in the top 20 WRs, but based on his tumbling value, I’d argue he’s poised to far out perform his expectation. 75 receptions, 900 yards and 4 TD’s would be a solid 3rd WR line, and in PPR leagues if his value jumps a bit being the best target on nearly ever down for the Browns.

Cole Beasley – DAL – The NFL slot reciever has found itself at the heart of the PPR world as small recieivers can have value in high volume offenses. Although Beasley may have been outperformed by fellow WR Terrance Williams last year, I see a spike in targets with DeMarco Murray out of the picture. Ranked as the 78th best WR by ESPN, I expect him to out perform a slew of receivers taken ahead of him.

Roddy White – ATL – With Julio Jones in the offense it’s easy to forget that White finished 18th in receptions in 14 games and should likely show less signs of slowing down than other recievers his age. While others value him lower and lower, I feel that White’s consistency and familiarity with QB Matt Ryan should keep him around 70-80 receptions and a healthy 6-8 TDs. Plenty good for a top 25 finish among WRs.

3 Down

Cody Latimer – DEN  – If you believe that the Bronco’s are planning on bringing a more balanced attack to the Mile High city with the increased use of the run game, then you should be nervous about drafting Cody Latimer. Despite his skill set, he’s still at best the fourth option on offense behind Thomas, Sanders, and Anderson. He only had 29 catches last year meaning we’re opperating on assumptions and despite my expectations for him to receive more work, he won’t get nearly enough to justify picking him at the 45-50 range for WR’s.

Donte Moncrief – IND – A fine reciever, Moncrief was already buried deep on the Colt’s depth chart, and they’re willingness to get Dorsett in the 2015 draft shows that they either don’t have faith in him or that they plan on spreading the ball around even more. I’d expect Moncrief to be drafted well ahead of his actual value, and caution that he may be the 4th reciever as early as week one for this offense.

Dorial Green-Beckham – TEN – Already dealing with a minor injury, Green-Beckham has generated a ton of buzz due to his extreme athletic abillity and comparissons to another mercurial WR in Randy Moss. Pump the breaks if you will considering he’s a rookie coming into a disfunctional offense with a rookie QB at the helm. In keeper or dynasty leagues he’s worth a stash but reaching early banking on his upside will burn your team for weeks while we wait for him to blossom.