First Day Trending

It’s been a hectic couple of weeks and we’ve been unable to provide you our unique brand of fantasy analysis, but we’re back to rectify that. Our weekly DFS article will be delayed somewhat, but we’ll hopefully post our Sunday games targets, so keep an eye out for that.

For now, we’ll take a final look at players who are trending up and trending down, and touch on a few major pieces of NFL news that broke over the last few weeks.

Three Up

Zeke Elliot, RB – Dallas Cowboys: Yes, this one is low hanging fruit, but with the anxiety everyone felt during the first rounds of their draft, it’s important to remind you that Zeke Elliott is one of the three best fantasy assets in all of football. Even though he didn’t play a snap for the team in pre-season action or see the field in practice, he’s a set it and forget it player who should see massive volume all year long.

Devin Singletary, RB – Buffalo Bills: We teased the possibility previously, but reading the headlines following LeSean McCoy’s release was shocking nonetheless. While Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon will demand work, Singletary went from being a later round project to being considered the top back in the Bills committee. As a third round pick, it’s clear the team wants to involve him heavily, so don’t be surprised if he carves out a solid role for himself.

Evan Engram, TE – New York Giants: I’ve been pretty vocal about my support for Eli Manning sans Odell Beckham, and while he’s still unlikely to perform in the top 15 at the position, it’s very likely he’s a more efficient passer in 2019 thanks to an improved offensive line and less reliance on forced throws to OBJ. Engram is the most likely to benefit from these factors, as injury and suspension means he’ll likely be the top passing target for Manning this year. We watched him finish atop the position a few years ago in a similar environment, so expecting a top 5 finish at the position is far from a difficult ask.

Honorable Mention: With the news that Jerick McKinnon will likely miss the season, Matt Brieda sees a sizable jump after being placed atop the team depth chart ahead of it’s week one match up. I still feel Coleman should be used heavily, but Brieda could easily work into the RB2 conversation.

Three Down

The Colts Receiving Group: It’s not their fault that Andrew Luck hung em up following an injury riddled career, but the truth is that with Brissett stepping in on short notice, there’s going to be a tough transition period early in the season. Hilton is likely to continue being a focal point for the office, but even he deserves to fall a few spots in your rankings. Guys like Parris Campbell and Ebron/Doyle need to feel the hammer too as their roles are further reduced until we see how Brissett handles the lead role this year.

N’Keal Harry, WR – New England Patriots: He looked like he may be in for a sizable rookie workload when the Pats brought him in with a first round pick, but the decision to play him early in the preseason despite some lingering injury issues may have led to the IR trip he’ll be taking. While he’s expected back sometime this season, he’ll miss a chunk of games, lending to the idea that he won’t contribute much this year regardless.

Deebo Samuel, WR – San Francisco 49ers: One of the more popular early offseason breakout candidates, Samuel may be a bit behind the curve after seeing the most recent 49ers depth chart. Currently sitting behind Pettis, Goodwin, and Kendrick Bourne, Samuel may not see enough snaps to be worth rostering early in the season. Of course, Pettis and Goodwin have a history of injury, so if a spot opens up, the rookie could see his usage bounce back. Still, temper your expectations early on.

Honorable Mention: It seemed like fate when Duke Johnson slid onto the top of the Texans’ depth chart following a season ending injury to Lamar Miller, but suddenly, he’ll face competition from a former teammate in Carlos Hyde. The two players couldn’t be more opposite, as Hyde profiles as a early down player and Johnson as a top flight pass catcher, but it means fewer touches for Johnson, who was beginning to look like a sneak RB2 candidate. Of course, Hyde could bomb in Houston, but I have to dock Johnson a bit until we know.

Trade Alert: Browns Trade Duke Johnson to Texans

It was a long time coming, but the Cleveland Browns have finally moved on from disgruntled running back Duke Johnson. The trade (for what could potentially become a 3rd rounder) opens the door for Nick Chubb to contribute even more heavily in the passing game, at least for the first 8 games, while it also puts Johnson in a position to resume passing down duties with a greater window to early down work.

Of course, Houston still employs Lamar Miller as their lead back, so there are obstacles in the way for Johnson to become more than a flex play, but if Miller stumbles or finds himself injured, then Johnson could finally get the chance to shine as a teams lead back.

 

Nick Chubb vs. Kareem Hunt; The Outlook

When the 2018 season came to a close, Cleveland Browns rookie running back Nick Chubb certainly looked poised to elevate his name into the “elite back” territory.

Selected in last years second round, the former Georgia Bulldog impressed despite being saddled with a backfield featuring veteran Carlos Hyde and third down specialist Duke Johnson.

Following the week 7 trade of Hyde to the Jaguars, Chubb took off. Consistently tasked with heavy usage, Chubb managed a RB8 finish over the final ten weeks (in all formats), and only the addition of Kareem Hunt in the off season could slow his momentum going into the 2019 season.

But does Hunt represent much of a threat anyhow?

We’ve now seen Chubb succeed in several crowded backfields. He was excellent at Georgia, taking over for a suspended Todd Gurley his first year in the program, and we watched him return from a gruesome knee injury to wrestle the top spot on the depth chart from Sony Michel in his final year at Georgia.

Supposing Hunt gets meaningful snaps, we’re confident Chubb can contribute to fantasy teams regardless, but we’re curious as to why anyone expects Hunt to just walk in and steal a major time share?

Just recently, Hunt was questioned by police for another alleged incident (news surrounding this particular incident is sparse) and we’re concerned about Hunt’s ability to keep out of the leagues cross hairs going forward.

The truth is, with an 8 week head start, there’s no reason Chubb shouldn’t see the bulk of the touches for the entirety of the season in Cleveland. He was unlikely to feature heavily in the passing game regardless, and Hunt MAY suppress his PPR value slightly, but we expect Chubb to see 250-280 rushing attempts regardless.

With how efficient he was last year, we have no reason to expect his yard per carry mark to drop below the 4.5 to 4.8 range. With his nose for the end zone and likely heavy usage, we see Chubb in the 1,250 total yard range with 10+ TDs combined.

Our current verdict is that Chubb should be confidently drafted as a back end RB1 candidate. With his position all but secured, he’s sharing a tier with players like Le’Veon Bell, Marlon Mack, and Dalvin Cook, you may be able to get him fairly cheap as his value continues to be suppressed by Hunts presence. Don’t pass on Chubb if he falls to you.

Kareem Hunt Lands in Cleveland

It was a bit of a shock when the Cleveland Browns announced they’d signed former NFL leading rusher Kareem Hunt to a contract ahead of the league handing down his official suspension. As many have pointed out, this seems to be a nod from former Chiefs GM John Dorsey who drafted Hunt in the 3rd round 2 years ago.

Regardless of your feelings towards Hunt, we’re left to unpack the effect this signing may have on incumbent backfield mates Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson.

Prior to the signing, both backs filled a particular role, with Chubb the exciting youngster chewing up the early downs and Duke as the third down closer; a specialist who’s receiving ability was elite among all running backs. Now there’s serious doubt as to who’s role is secure in the offense.

Of course, it’s all moot until we know the terms of the contract and what, ultimately, the suspension will be. If Hunt doesn’t miss a lot of games, it should give Chubb truthers migraines as the 2nd year back is no longer a shoe-in for RB1 volume. Even Duke Johnson’s touches aren’t secure given Hunts excellence in the passing game for Kansas City. I’m not ready to make major changes to my preliminary running back rankings, but I’ll be watching the situation closely.

After all, a lengthy suspension could erase any fears as Chubb would have the inside track to the starting gig after doing enough to lead the Browns to jettison Carlos Hyde in the middle of the season.

Beginners Guide to PPR

While you may see the word “beginner” in the title and deem this beneath you, but the truth is that we should always be learning; honing our skills and getting better at the game. The PPR format has exploded in years past, and like any non-standard scoring format, it presents fantasy drafters an extra wrinkle in their quest for greatness.

Of course, it’s important to understand the fundamentals. If you’re a point per reception veteran, skip this section; we’ll see you down below when we highlight some PPR strategies for the 2018 season. For those of you who aren’t familiar, buckle up and we’ll take you on a crash course.

The Rules

PPR leagues differ from standard leagues in one very easy to understand facet; they award points to any player who records a reception. Whether it’s one full point, or a half a point, a player who has a higher volume of receptions becomes far more valuable than his standard league counter parts.

The first thing one should do is adjust your rankings. If you’re using a fantasy football magazine, or printing them off the internet, make sure you’re using PPR rankings. We always suggest doing the research and ranking your own players, but if you neither have the time nor the desire, ensure you’re not using rankings that don’t address your format.

A great example would be Duke Johnson as he’s primarily an after thought in standard, non-PPR leagues; and for a good reason. His highest single season rushing attempts total was 104 in his rookie year. Last year his 83 carries was good for 55th in the NFL, which we shouldn’t have to tell you isn’t enough volume to warrant much excitement.

In PPR leagues however, his 74 receptions was the 26th highest total in the NFL, and 4th highest among running backs. When you consider that he finished as the 11th highest scoring running back despite his average draft position of 97th overall in PPR leagues last year (data courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.com) then it’s painfully clear that recognizing these pass catching backs can be fantasy gold in the right format.

Of course, that’s not to discount how it affects the wide receiver position either. Most of the elite players (regardless of position) are elite in either format. Volume and opportunity trump much of what you can dredge up in an argument, but in those middle rounds there’s plenty of players who have higher floors thanks to a larger share of targets.

Last year, Jarvis Landry was being ranking as the WR27 and was selected with the 78th pick on average. The value there was undeniable, especially considering that his 260 PPR points finished for 5th most at the WR position and 12th overall among skill position players. While his situation may require re-evaluation of his opportunity, the example rings true nonetheless. These players, who many discount because they build their rankings based off of the wrong data, are the targets that will help you win your league.

Players to Target

As always, we’ll use the ADP data compiled over at Fantasy Football Calculator to make our analysis. Finding these PPR gems isn’t as easy as it seems, though. Simply targeting player A because he led the position in receptions last year doesn’t ensure success this year. There is far more subtly when highlighting players to target in the middle and late rounds.

Running Backs

In the early rounds, you’ll ignore PPR vs. Standard debates; Jordan Howard and Melvin Gordon are still elite fantasy commodities even if they don’t catch the ball a ton. It’s in the middle rounds we can start the shopping list.

Fallers

• Kareem Hunt (ADP 11): Unlike the Gordon/Howard example, Hunt has legitimate regression concerns after a monster rookie season. With Spencer Ware returning and pass catching specialist Charcandarick West still on the roster, there’s going to be fewer opportunities for the game breaker. While he’ll still be valuable, I don’t expect him to factor into the passing game as much this season, damaging his ability to be the top 10 player he’s being projected as.
• Derrick Henry (ADP 36): While Henry has never been the most adept pass catcher, the signing of Dion Lewis pretty much relegates him to a 1st and 2nd down role. Without the benefit of the passing game, Henry’s 200 carries won’t do much to support a RB2 finish, and with his talent, drafters are still betting that he’ll break out. While Lewis certainly is an injury risk, he’s also good enough between the tackles to keep Henry from being elite.
• Jay Ajayi (ADP 45): I really like Ajayi’s talent, but I don’t like his situation in Philly. With Darren Sproles returning, and Corey Clement still on the  roster, the idea that he’ll continue to the be the bell cow is a bit misleading. He will likely lead the team in rushes, but his involvement in the passing game will be minimal barring any major injuries.
• Kenyan Drake (ADP 47): There is a lot of buzz after Drake finished 2017 strong, but Frank Gore should eat into his carries, and rookie Kalen Ballage is a far superior pass catching back who should eat targets up early an often. While he’s a safe bet for him to finish at the top of the committee for rushes, like Ajayi, he’ll figure into the scoring far less than his ADP provides for.
• Duke Johnson (ADP 97): Mentioned above, Johnson still figures to make an impact in the passing game, but with Carlos Hyde also a capable pass catcher (88 targets last year were only 5 fewer than Johnson), there’s reason to be concerned that the volume could dip. His ADP is beginning to represent this, but don’t swing early on Johnson and expect 70+ catches again.

Risers

• Dion Lewis (ADP 61): I’m not predicting him to completely overtake Henry in the rushing game, but his floor his immensely high. In the 7th round, he’s the kind of back that can secure you 50 receptions and 1,000 total yards without impacting the incumbent start too much. His ceiling is far better than that, creating a wonderful target to return heavily on his investment.
• Chris Thompson (ADP 81): Not to discount the effect that Derrius Guice will have on the Washington Backfield, but Thompson was on pace for 1,200 total yards, 60+ receptions, and 9 TDs last year before missing the final 6 games due to a broken leg. Even given a reasonable amount of regression, he figures to be one of the most valuable 3rd down backs in fantasy.
• Ty Montgomery (ADP 111): He’s not going to impress anyone on the ground, but the converted wide receiver has the pass catching ability to provide plenty of value; especially in the 12th round. Prior to his injury, Montgomery was targeted heavily in the passing game, averaging nearly 8 targets and 6 receptions a game. Expect a return to the third down role for the sure handed Montgomery, and reap the rewards this late in the draft.
• James White (ADP 165): The forgotten man in New England, White continues to fly under the radar despite securing 90 targets and 56 receptions last year in an over crowded backfield. With Sony Michel still a rookie, and Dion Lewis leaving for  greener pastures, Tom Brady’s safety blanket is in line for another big year in terms of PPR production. At 165, I’ll take the chance that the 26 year old continues to produce in the passing game for one of the best QB’s of all time.
• Kalen Ballage (ADP 213): I’ll continue beating my drum for Ballage who enters the season firmly behind Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore on the depth chart. But the speedy big man possesses the kind of silky smooth mitts that coaches game plan around, and while Drake was effective down the stretch in 2017, the moves made in the off season scream of available opportunity for the guys they brought in. If he carves out a portions of first and second downs, Ballage could be a monster for basically a waiver wire stab.

Wide Receivers

Fallers

• Adam Thielen (ADP 29): With an upgrade at QB, you’d think Thielen is in line for the same kind of statline that saw him win leagues in 2017, but think again. History shows that Cousin’s is a bit of a gunslinger, and while Thielen will probably continue to be a contributor, he’s primed for regression yet being drafted as though he’s regression proof.
• Golden Tate (ADP 48): You may look at the bottom line and suggest that he’s a PPR gold mine; after all he’s recorded 90 receptions for 4 straight years. I’d implore you to dig a little deeper. Aside from the emergence of Marvin Jones, it’s important to note that Tate was wildly inconsistent last year. In 6 games last year, Tate failed to record more than 4 receptions, and in four of those games he had less than 6 PPR point. That amounts to nearly 40% of the season that Tate is a bust player.
• Brandin Cooks (ADP 53): Don’t get me wrong, Cooks is a nice little player. The issue is that with the Rams being a run first team, there’s about 10% or more opportunity lost in targets (550 pass attempts in LA to 600 in New England). Cooks is a deep threat that won’t command the kind of target share that other elite PPR receivers will. With Robert Woods returning as the slot man, Cooks is in line for major regression, especially in the PPR format.
• Jarvis Landry (ADP 59): This isn’t a knock on Landry the player, but expecting the kind of volume that he had in Miami is to ignore the fact that he’s not the most talented receiver on his current team. With Josh Gordon figuring to command the highest percentage of targets, Landry’s expectations should be limited, even if his ADP suggests otherwise.
• Julian Edelman (ADP 69): It pains me to include the New England slot receiver, but the reasons for his inclusion here are fairly straight forward. On top of missing 25% of the season due to suspension, he’s 32 years old and coming off a major knee injury that cost him the entirety of last season. With real competition for the slot position, it’ll be very difficult for Edelman to be more than a spot start, and at his current price, there’s a ton of other guys I’d rather have.

Risers

• Cooper Kupp (ADP 94): I was wrong about Kupp last year, and while I think Cooks and Woods eat up a lot of targets, it’s important to note that Kupp quietly led the Rams in targets last year with 94. With a floor around 60 catches and 800 yards (tack on around 5 TDs), and you’re looking at fantastic value in the 10th round.
• Marquise Goodwin (ADP 104): Goodwin looked great in the five games that Garoppolo started, averaging nearly 9 targets a game. With Jimmy G as the every day starter, I expect Goodwin to continue to elevate his game, and a WR2 ceiling (65 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 4 TDs) is well within reach.
• Kenny Stills (ADP 148): Many expect Danny Amendola to fill the role vacated by Jarvis Landry, but I find myself coming back to Stills as the perfect candidate to inherit those targets. Already one of the Dolphins most targeted receivers, his familiarity with the system and quarter back Ryan Tannehill are great catalysts for an increase in production. Perennially Stills has inhabited the 80-100 target mark, so bumping him to 130-150 feels right, and puts him firmly in the break out column on draft day.
• Keelan Cole (ADP 174): I don’t typically get excited about guys with as small a sample size as Cole has, but the 25 year old out of Louisville was impressive when called upon late in the season, and seems to continue to be overlooked with Marqise Lee and Donte Moncreif sitting above him in the depth chart. Neither of those players has done anything over their careers to keep Cole from taking their jobs, and with a solid rapport developing between he and Bortles, he’s a breakout candidate you can have for pennies on the dollar.
• Michael Gallup (ADP 212): I don’t expect Gallup to come out of the gate blazing, but with a mediocre group of receivers ahead of him, he’ll likely carve out a large share of the targets in Dallas. With much of the buzz surrounding him positive, I expect 100+ targets for the rookie, and a floor that most players in the 200’s don’t have.

To Cuff or Not to Cuff

While it sounds logical to protect your early investments by targeting their backups as handcuffs, I’d argue that it may impede your ability to draft the best team possible in the middle to late rounds.

Now, before you think I’m advocating the idea of skipping handcuffs all together, I’d like to qualify this by saying there’s a handful of backs every year where the situation dictates having a backup plan and often the best backup plan is the backup themselves.

Still, I’d argue that drafting a middling to poor NFL back because they sit 2nd in the depth chart is a bad strategy. If the backup makes sense, then sure, pull the trigger, but drafting the best available player depending on your needs is always the best plan.

Good

DeAndre Washington – Oakland Raiders (ADP 202): Washington excelled in a limited role behind Latavius Murray and now finds himself playing second fiddle to the un-retired Beast Mode himself: Marshawn Lynch. At his age and after a full season off, Lynch owners are going to want to protect themselves and Washington offers starting caliber skills at the end of the draft. A very small risk, but would be relevant immediately following a Lynch injury (or re-retirement).

Joe Williams – San Fransisco 49ers (ADP 157): I don’t personally buy into the negative buzz surrounding Carlos Hyde and new coach Kyle Shanahan but it pays to be prepared. In Atlanta, Shanahan managed to feed both of his running backs, lending fantasy value to Tevin Coleman via 1,000 total yards. While Williams is doubtful to accomplish this much his rookie year, it’s possible he contributes even if Hyde doesn’t flounder. If he does? Then Williams could be a steal.

Jonathan Williams – Buffalo Bills (ADP 164): Drafting LeSean McCoy can be nerve wracking thanks to the poor offense in Buffalo and his age and usage. Identifying who will be his back up is one of my goals every off season. Williams is the clear cut #2 behind McCoy and if Mike Gillislee’s usage last year is any indication, he should touch the football a bit more than most #2’s do. If McCoy goes down, don’t expect the same level of production, but he’d be valuable regardless.

D’Onta Forman – Houston Texans (ADP 193): Lamar Miller is a fantastic fantasy running back when he’s healthy, but as last year taught us, he gets a bit dinged up with how often he’s asked to run the football. As it turns out, D’onta Forman looks to be a better backup than Alfred Blue, and he could find himself with a larger number of touches should Houston’s season look similar to last years.

Marlon Mack – Indianapolis Colts (ADP 182): For the record, I love Frank Gore the football player, but his time is nearly up and Mack offers the best value in the Indianapolis backfield when the inevitable happens. If you’re drafting Gore yourself, then Mack makes a lot of sense to stash if you have a deep enough bench, because it’s only a matter of time before Gore is on the shelf.

Better

Latavius Murray – Minnesota Vikings (ADP 111): The consensus is that thanks to Murray’s injury this is now Dalvin Cook’s team; and I tend to agree. Still, Murray has freakish athletic ability and Minnesota gave him a pretty penny in the off season so I expect at least a time share with Murray having the inside track should Cook look like a rookie early on.

Jamaal Williams – Green Bay Packers (ADP 142): Williams is my pick to emerge as a one of the biggest late round steals as we enter draft weekends. I’m convinced the Ty Montgomery is poorly suited to be a starter in the league and his inability to pass block is going to see him on the sidelines on early downs. Williams is likely to grab those early downs and has the type of game to fit the scheme in Green Bay.

Jacquizz Rodgers – Tampa Bay Buccanneers (ADP 128): One could argue he belongs in the “best” category as he’ll start the year as the starter, but all signs point to Martin taking back the gig when he returns. The fact remains that predicting Martin’s performances when he returns is a difficult prospect, and should injury or inefficiency become an issue again, Rodgers, and not Sims, will be the guy to step in and run the backfield.

Kareem Hunt – Kansas City Chiefs (ADP 96): While I put him on this list because he has some fantasy upside in the KC offense, I’m not personally drafting him where he’s currently being drafted. Ware was very effective before his concussion and he should return to form this year as a RB1. Of course, there’s always a chance that he doesn’t in which case Hunt has the ability to match other backs in the 2nd and 3rd tiers.

Samaje Perine – Washington Redskins (ADP 109): It’s dangerous to draft a backup as early as Perine is going but unlike Hunt, I’m not sold on Robert Kelley as a starting RB. He was dreadful for long stretches last year and by all accounts Perine is looking like a lock to usurp the role. Of course, if he does win the job then his ADP would skyrocket and he’d come off lists like this, but for now he’s a no-brainer backup to target.

Best

C.J. Prosise – Seattle Seahawks (ADP 128):  The depth chart may disagree with me, but the crowded Seattle backfield has everyone doing mental back flips trying to figure out the pecking order. Everyone seems to be in love with Rawls, but should Lacy stumble (and it’s looking like it may already be happening) Prosise has far better skills in the backfield and would looks really nice leading this attack.

Darren McFadden – Dallas Cowboys (ADP 117): While it may feel like cheating as Zeke faces down a possible suspension, the fact remains that even suspended, Elliott is going to be drafted in the first 3-5 rounds and McFadden is a must have for those first 6 weeks as it appears he’ll get the first crack at starting duties. Even if Elliott’s suspension is reduced or rescinded, McFadden is one of the safest handcuffs due to the production he’s had in that offense previously.

Adrian Peterson – New Orleans Saints (ADP 70): The future hall-of-famer takes over the backup role from Tim Hightower and figures to play a prominent role in the high flying New Orleans offense. Even if Mark Ingram is healthy and retains the number one spot, it’s a real possibility that Peterson sees 150 touches as a backup with the very real potential to fill in when Ingram inevitably gets hurt. In truth, he may just steal the starting gig all together making for a potential RB1 in the 8-10 round range.

Duke Johnson – Cleveland Browns (ADP 131): While he’s not your prototypical lead back, Johnson has the goods to be effective should Crowell go down, but the news in Cleveland is that the backs are going to handle the ball a lot this year. Expect Johnson and Crowell both to have a bump in usage on the ground and for Johnson to continue to push the top of the league in terms of RB targets. In the 14th round he’s one of the safest picks in the draft.

Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans (ADP 86): I’m not convinced that DeMarco Murray is going to fall apart due to age and milage, but Henry’s ability as a three down back is undeniable and his timeshare should increase this year and eventually he’ll take over lead back duties. If you bet on him this year and it doesn’t happen, don’t be discouraged as he’ll likely touch the ball more than any other RB2 we’ve already named.

Tevin Coleman – Atlanta Falcons (ADP 61): While Coleman as a backup is a bit of a stretch, the bottom line is that he’ll contribute significantly even if Freeman plays in all 16 games. Last year Coleman managed about 1,000 combined yards and finished in the top 25 of all running backs despite being a 2nd stringer the entire season. He’s fantastic in his role but his potential as a top 10 RB is what plants him firmly at the head of this list.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPR Targets

For those trying a PPR league for the first time, it’s important to remember that standard scoring rankings need to be adjusted when looking at certain positions. When you league awards a point (or some percentage of one) per reception, players you never thought to target become valuable tools in your quest to become champion.

Running Back Targets

Drafting a PPR running back can be a nerve racking thing; with the exception of a few standouts, pass-catching running backs have a more volatile NFL existence and predicting th usage is difficult. David Johnson (RB1) and Le’Veon Bell (RB2) led all backs with 120 and 94 targets respectively. Here’s the next 5:

1. James White, NE (RB51) – 86 targets
2. Bilal Powell, NYJ (RB29) – 75 targets
3. Duke Johnson, CLE (RB44) – 74 targets
4. Darren Sproles, PHI (RB55) – 71 targets
5. T.J. Yeldon, JAC (RB74) – 68 targets

A veritable who’s who of middle to late round picks. All of those players finished with 50 or more receptions, and in a 1 point PPR league that’s the equivilant of 500 rushing or receiving yards. Don’t expect all 5 of these players to finish in the top 10 in targets this year though, as turnover in the NFL is expected. Here are five PPR targets for 2017.

1. Theo Riddick, DET (RB37)
2. Duke Johnson, CLE (RB44)
3. Chris Thompson, WAS(RB61)
4. Danny Woodhead, BAL (RB32)
5. Wendall Smallwood, PHI (RB65)

All five of these players should approach 50-75 targets, providing ample PPR scoring from the later rounds.

Wide Receiver Targets

Things get a little more… muddled when you start looking at middle and late round PPR targets. The top 20 receivers on the board in all formats are likely to be targeted the most, which makes WR’s that much more valuable in general. But there’s always a steal to be had in the late rounds. Here’s five PPR targets for 2017.

1. Jeremy Kerley, SF (WR80)
2. Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (WR62)
3. Willie Snead, NO (WR36)
4. Cole Beasley, DAL (WR71)
5. Marqise Lee, JAC (WR66)

Sure, the list is a veritable who’s who of undervalued slot receivers, but all are a safe bet to finish in the top 35 of WR targets, and should likely far outproduce their draft values. It’s safe to assume that none of these guys are likely to finish in the top 20 overall, but as leagues continue to value receptions, these are like extra rounds in the chamber.

Hidden Gems (RB)

Every year we spend our fantasy prep time pouring through periodicals and compiling statistics based off of “expert” analysis. And while this information is invaluable, we often times ignore the most important players to a championship team: The Bench.

Finding these hidden gems can be difficult but rewarding when your first and second round picks start experiencing the injuries that come with playing as often as elite NFL players do. We’ll examine who from the bargain barrel section of the drafts can help you when they inevitably enter the fray.

Surest Thing – Isaiah Crowell: With an ADP around the 10th round, Crowell (at this point in the offseason) is due the largest workload of any RB behind him. Despite the noise surrounding his boneheaded internet presence this summer, he’s still in line for at least half of clevelands touches. Duke Johnson averaged slightly fewer yards per carry and had 80 fewer touches. If you think it goes closer to 50/50, you can still expect 130 touches and 600 yards and the lions share of goal line touches. If Johnson gets hurt or fades? Crowell could be a steal in round 10.

Highest Risk Reward – Alfred Morris: The whole world seems to be sold on Ezekiel Elliot in Dallas, and where there’s smoke there’s fire. If he struggles early, veteran RB Alfred Morris stands to gain the most. Running behind that line, and with his ability to help on 3 downs, Morris only needs the door to open to have some big games. His ADP of around 150 means he’s a handcuff or at best a late round flier, but one that could be gold if he gets the touches.

Big Ole’ Bust – Justin Forsett: Entering his age 30 season, Forsett is likely in for a big drop off. Added to the mix is Kenneth Dixon, the fourth round pick in this years NFL draft. There’s some chatter out of Baltimore that he’s pushing for some playing time. As Forsett continues to wain, he’s likely to find himself out of a starters spot by the end of the year.

Bonus – Jay Ajayi: For a while after Lamar Millers departure, it looks like Ajayi would find all three downs to himself. The addition of Arian Foster dulls his prospects for the 2016/17 season, but don’t let it disuade you from stashing him in the later rounds. Foster hasn’t been healthy in years, and Ajayi is a dynamic runner who can help in the passing game, and he should be viewed with a decent amount of upside for this year.

 

Turnover on Downs – 4 Players Who’s Value is Falling

Every day more news trickles in from training camps around the league and with it come the whispers of change as position battles rage and our preconceived notion of how things will shake out, get shaken up. Below are 4 early contenders to see their value plummet as the find themselves in the midst of the bad buzz machine that so often derails our fantasy preparations. (this is in no way ranked in order of importance.)

Terrance West – RB / Cleveland Browns – The second head in the two-headed monster in Cleveland last year has seen his stock take a hit with the continued surge of Isaiah Crowell as the lead back and the addition of third down specialist Duke Johnson. Word out of Browns camp is that West isn’t even safe in terms of making the 53 man roster. While I may not be ready to right the eulogy on his career in Cleveland, it’s a safe bet that West sees very little meaningful time on the field barring a catastrophic injury ahead of him.

Charles Clay – TE / Buffalo Bills – Any move that sees you go to a team like Buffalo has to make one pause when considering a players fantasy viability, but we all pointed to the freakish athleticism and the ability to be an impact player on a team that desperately needed one in the middle of the field as reasons why we considered Clay an obvious sleeper. Now, a full week into training camp, reports have Clay being targeted by Bills QBs a whopping 0 times. That’s right, you can’t divide by the number of time’s he’s been thrown at because it isn’t even a number. We’re a ways off from actual NFL games, and this could turn around for the gifted TE, but it’s a bad sign when a bad offense isn’t even TRYING to get you involved.

Darren McFadden – RB / Dallas Cowboys – Once upon a time McFadden was expected to blossom into an elite NFL runner. Then the injury history we all conveniently ignored became the present… and then the future. Now he’s becoming a frequent footnote in fantasy circles as well. What began as an off season filled with cautious optimism (for no reason other than we wanted to be right eventually) has turned into what we always knew it would be; another injury riddled campaign for the much maligned running back. A pulled hamstring is not the end of the world, but it is an other entry in the long list of obstacles that McFadden has to overcome to gain the starting gig… not least of which is that Joseph Randle now holds the keys to the castle. Steer clear of McFadden until the picks don’t matter; that way you won’t mind dumping him when he finds his way to the IR.

Marquise Lee – WR / Jacksonville Jaguars – A second round pick last year, Lee came into the league lauded as one of the top WR options in the draft; expectations where he’d immediately make an impact in the absence of suspended #1 Justin Blackmon. Inconsistency and injury derailed the promising players rookie year, and as we begin camps, it appears as though Lee is the odd man out with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns playing their ways into starting roles, and several touches being siphoned by new RB TJ Yeldon and free agent TE Juluis Thomas. Lee is very low on my list of maybe-sleepers.

Honorable Mentions: Bishop Sankey – There’s been very little good news this off season for the first RB selected in last years draft. He has stiff competition in the form of rookie arrival David Cobb. Trent Richardson – Early reports had him cutting weight, now they have him on the outside of the bubble as Murray and Helu (on third downs) look to lock up the backfield. Joique Bell – This one has been beat to death so much that Bell seems to fallen out of favor with both fans and pundits as Ameer Abdullah continues to carry the torch as Bell returns from an injury. Unless he falls in drafts, his value is taking a major hit.

2015 NFL Draft Fallout: RB Edition

With the 2015 NFL draft complete, and exciting young players folding into NFL rosters, it’s time to take a look at what the new fantasy landscape looks like.

To assess these players and their impact on their new teams, it’s essential to understand who is in front of them on the organizational depth chart. Will they supplant the incumbent starter? How many touches should they see? Lets take a look at where our top offensive prospects landed.

Todd Gurley  / St. Louis Rams : If you’re a Zac Stacy fan, this one stings. Gurley should be eased into the starting role due to his recent injury status, but come playoff time it’s likely he’ll have taken over the bulk of the playing time from Stacy. The Rams threw 3 of their first 5 picks at offensive line players, so a renewed focus on a running game to balance with new starting QB in Nick Foles could mean moderate fantasy relevance for Gurley.

Melvin Gordon / San Diego Chargers : This was a uniquely perfect landing spot for the speedy Gordon. His ability to play on passing downs means he should have an immediate impact for fantasy owners willing to draft him. In PPR leagues his value jumps as San Diego has shown a willingness to use it’s backs in the passing game. With the departure of Ryan Mathews, Gordon slide into the starting roll week 1.

T J Yeldon / Jacksonville Jaguars : Yeldon has elite speed, and shows a lot of promise, but has a spotty history in terms of in the field health. Toby Gerhart is not the answer so expect the Jag’s to give Yeldon the chance to win the spot out of camp.

Ameer Abdulah / Detroit Lions : Great speed, and can be an asset in the running game, but has been labelled as a player who puts the ball on the ground. In my opinion, he’s not a threat to eat into Joquie Bell’s touches too much; view as a late round flier, and only if you think Bell may get dinged up.

Tevin Coleman / Atlanta Falcons : Billed as an extremely violent, top speed type player, Coleman could very well impress and steal the job from under Devonta Freemans nose. Freeman has not shown he can be healthy enough to hold the reigns on the starting spot, so Coleman could be a candidate to slide in drafts and still take the bulk of his teams carries.

Duke Johnson / Cleveland Browns : Drafted by the mess that is the Cleveland Browns, Johnson has the tools to be a good passing down back, but has quite an uphill climb with Isaiah Cromwell and Terrance West ahead of him. The only saving grace is that Cleveland experimented in the backfield frequently after Ben Tate flamed out. If Cromwell or West struggle early, Johnson could find himself on the field.

David Johnson / Arizona Cardinals : A big, physical back, Johnson has great hands and can catch the ball too. His skill set has been compared to that of Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell. More importanty, the underwhelming Andre Ellington sits in front of him on the depth chart. They should compliment each other early on, but if Johnson impresses, could take the reigns later in the season.

Matt Jones / Washington Redskins : Matt Jones is a big boy, and runs like it too. Unfortunately, he sits behind Alfred Morris. He’s unlikely to have much fantasy relevance unless Morris misses a big chunk of time.

Jay Ajayi / Miami Dolphins: Ajayi has one of the best skillsets in the draft, but concerns about his knee injury saw him fall to the Dolphins in the 5th round. Reports of his knee have been said to be greatly exagerated, and if healthy, Ajayi could be a gem in an offense that showed commitment to getting it’s RB’s involved. This could mean Miller’s time in Miami is numbered.

David Cobb – RB / Tennesse Titans : Cobb was an under the radar favorite of pundits and draft experts. More of a compact power runner, Cobb finds himself only slightly behind incumbent starter Bishop Sankey. Sankey failed to impress in his rookie year, but the question remains how much of that can be attributed to an awful passing game? Cobb will have opportunities to steal the job with rookie QB Marcus Mariotta taking over the reigns, but it’s Sankey’s job to lose (for now).